Friday, January 24, 2020

Markets tumble after a second coronavirus case is discovered in the US

Dow sank 170 in highly volatile trading, decliners over advancers about 3-1 & NAZ dropped 87.  The MLP index pulled back 3+ to the 213s & the REIT index fell 2+ to the 416s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries rose in price.  Oil was lower again, down 1+ to the 54s, while gold went up 5 to 1570 on growing concern about the flu scare (more on both below).

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US health officials said they diagnosed a 2nd patient with the China coronavirus, a Chicago woman who returned from Wuhan with the infection, & they are monitoring dozens of other potential cases here.  There are 63 cases being monitored in the US that stretch across 22 states, including the first patient in Washington state & the new case in Illinois, said Dr Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization & Respiratory DiseasesOfficials said the new patient, a woman in her 60s, is doing well & is in stable condition.  She remains isolated in a hospital as a precaution, US health officials said on a conference call with reporters.  The Illinois patient traveled to China in late Dec & began experiencing symptoms when she returned to the US last week, officials said.  She did not have symptoms while flying, they said.  “She was not symptomatic when flying. And based on what we know now about this virus, our concern for transmission before symptoms develop is low, so that is reassuring,” Dr Allison Arwady, Chicago's public health commissioner, said.  Upon returning to the US, the patient had very limited movement from outside her home & did not use public transportation or attend any large gatherings, they said.  The patient began to feel unwell a few days after completing her trip & alerted her doctor.  “CDC believes the immediate risk to the U.S. public is low at this time, but the situation continues to evolve rapidly,” Messonnier said, adding that there is likely to be more cases in coming days.  “We have our best people working on this problem.” The flu-like coronavirus, first identified on Dec 31, has killed at least 26 people in China & infected more than 900 worldwide.

CDC confirms second US case of coronavirus and is monitoring dozens of other potential cases

American Express (AXP), a Dow stock, reported Q4 results that beat expectations, sending the stock higher, as card fee revenues grew more than expected.  EPS was $2.03 vs the $2.01 estimate & revenue was about even at $11.365B vs $11.36B expected.  Net card fees:were $1.08B vs an estimate of $1.05B.  Stronger-than-forecast profit was driven in large part by a “well-balanced mix” in fee, spending & lending revenues.  “These results demonstrate the success of our strategy to generate sustainable, profitable growth across the enterprise over the long term,” CEO Stephen Squeri said.  He noted that AXP added 11.5M new proprietary cards in 2019, with nearly 70% of new card members opting for the company's fee-based products.  This helped to drive card fee revenue growth of 17%.  The company's adjusted annual EPS came in at $8.30, representing a 12% jump from the previous year.  The company expects 2020 EPS of $8.85-9.25.  The forecast is calling for EPS $8.49-9.67 this year & it sees revenues growing by 8-10%.  The stock also got a boost this year after China's central bank accepted an application from an AXP unit to do business in the world's 2nd-largest economy.  The stock rose 3.73 in a down market,.
If you would like to learn more about AXP, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AXP?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

American Express earnings beat expectations on strong card fee revenues, shares rise

Gold prices finished higher for the day & week as a viral outbreak originating out of China continued to spread in Asia & other parts of the globe, sparking fears of an intl outbreak of the deadly upper respiratory disease.  Gold for Feb delivery gained $6.50 (0.4%) to finish at $1571 an ounce, reversing an earlier intraday slide.  For the week, the yellow metal has gained about 0.7%.  Gains on today pushed bullion to its highest finish since Jan 7 as the upper respiratory illness triggered a selloff in global equities & fanned demand for haven assets.  US stocks, the Dow & the S&P 500 came under added pressure after the US Centers for Disease Control & Prevention said it had confirmed a second case of the virus in America.  Meanwhile, China has moved to restrict movement of some 46M  people in & out of cities near the center of the outbreak, while also canceling Lunar New Year events as the number of infections of illness akin to SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, continued to rise.  This virus has spread to other countries.  Analysts said gold prices would continue to react to headlines around the outbreak, but said that the relationship wasn’t always straightforward.

Gold logs gains for day and week as China virus stokes global anxieties


Oil futures ended sharply lower on fears the spread of the coronavirus in China elsewhere will undercut demand for crude, which had seen prices already under pressure due to worries about a potential oversupply.  Today, China’s National Health Commission confirmed more than 800 cases of the coronavirus, an illness akin to severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS.  So far, the death toll has risen to 26 from 17, according to the commission & state media.  In the US, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention confirmed a 2nd case of coronavirus.  Cases have also been reported in other countries, though the World Health Organization yesterday said it was too early to declare a global health emergency.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Mar delivery fell $1.40 (2.5%) to end at $54.19 a barrel.  For the week, the US benchmark fell 7.5%, the largest such fall for a most active contract since May.  Mar Brent crude gave up $1.35 (2.2%) to close at $60.69 a barrel, contributing to a 6.4% weekly decline.  Both WTI & Brent ended at their lowest levels in 3 months.  Crude remained lower after oil-field-services firm Baker Hughes said the number of US oil rigs rose by 3 this week to 676.

Oil ends sharply lower as worries rise over virus outbreak

The virus in China is very scary for traders.  Today the Dow dropped almost 500 from its early highs.  Bargain hunting in the last hour trimmed the loss, allowing it to finish near 29K.  The flu scare will be a major worry for traders next week. 

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