Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Markets rebound on earnings reports

Dow recovered 183, advancers over decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ went up 100.  The MLP index bounced back 1+ to the 211s & the REIT index rose 1+ to the 417s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold after yesterday's rally.  Oil rose to the 53s & gold fell 8 to 1568 after recent strength.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil53.03
-0.11-0.2%

GC=FGold   1,575.20
-2.20-0.1%






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US equity markets opened higher, rebounding from a major selloff in the previous session, as investors looked past the continued spreading of the coronavirus outbreak in China.  The Dow by 100 (0.4%) as it looked to put an end to its 5-day skid.  The S&P 500 & NAZ had both fallen for 2 straight sessions.  The 3 major averages fell by at least 1.6% yesterday.  China said that were 4515 confirmed cases of the virus.  Almost all of the 106 deaths have been in Hubei province, where the outbreak began.  West Texas Intermediate crude oil was on track for its first gain in ^ days, trading up 0.5% near $53.40 a barrel & gold was down 0.2% at $1580 an ounce.  Treasuries slid, sending the yield on the 10-year note up by 2 basis points to 1.625%.  In Europe, Britain's FTSE, France's CAC & Germany's DAX were all higher by 0.5%.  Overnight, Japan's Nikkei shed 0.6% while China's Shanghai Composite & Hong Kong's Hang Seng remained closed in observance of the Lunar New Year.

Stocks bounce back, try to fight off coronavirus


Lockheed Martin (LMT) delivered better-than-expected full-year results, sending shares higher.  The defense contractor had EPS of $21.95, as revenue rose 11.1% to $59.8B.  About 1/3 of the sales jump was due to a $2B increase in revenue from the F-35 fighter, the most expensive weapons program in Dept of Defense history.  LMT delivered 134 F-35s in 2019, a 47% increase from a year earlier.  The forecast called for full-year EPS of $21.86 on revenue of $59.2B.  Wall Street analysts surveyed by Refinitiv were expecting full-year earnings of $21.86 a share on revenue of $59.2B.  "The corporation delivered outstanding performance throughout 2019, achieving exceptional sales growth, strong earnings, cash from operations, and a record backlog," CEO Marillyn Hewson said.  Sales orders the company has yet to fill jumped 10% to $144B.  Looking ahead, the company raised its full-year EPS forecast to $23.65-23.95, missing the $24.30 that analysts had projected.  Sales for 2020 are expected to be $62.75- 64.2B. The stock rose 3.40.
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Lockheed Martin gets $2B boost from F-35 fighter jet


Consumer confidence in the US grew more than expected in Jan as the outlook around the labor market improved, according to the Conference Board.  The Board's consumer confidence index rose to 131.6 this month from 126.5 in Dec.  The forecast called for consumer confidence to rise to 128.  Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board said consumers felt more confident about their job prospects moving forward, lifting the overall index.  “Optimism about the labor market should continue to support confidence in the short-term and, as a result, consumers will continue driving growth and prevent the economy from slowing in early 2020,” Franco said.  The data released showed 49% of consumers think US jobs are “plentiful,” up from 46.5%.  Those saying jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 11.6% from 13%.

US consumer confidence jumps in January to 131.6, vs 128 expected

New orders for key US.-made capital goods dropped by the most in 8 months in Dec & shipments were weak, suggesting business investment contracted further in Q4 & was a drag on economic growth.  The Commerce Dept reported that orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, fell 0.9% last month as demand for machinery, primary metals & electrical equipment, appliances & components declined.  That was the largest decrease since Apr.  Data for Nov was revised lower to show these so-called core capital goods orders edging up 0.1% instead of gaining 0.2% as previously reported.  The forecast for core capital goods was for unchanged in Dec.  Core capital goods orders rose 0.8% on a year-on-year basis in Dec.  Shipments of core capital goods decreased 0.4% last month.  Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in GDP.  They declined by an unrevised 0.3% in Nov.  Business investment has contracted for 2 straight qtrs & likely remained in the red in Q4, subtracting from GDP growth.  The Atlanta Fed is forecasting GDP to rise at a 1.8% annualized rate in Q4.  The economy grew at a 2.1% rate in the Jul-Sep period.  The gov will publish its snapshot of fourth-quarter GDP on Thurs.  Business investment had been weighed down by steep declines in both spending on equipment & nonresidential structures such as gas & oil well drilling.  That has landed manufacturing in recession.  Capital expenditure has been undercut by the White House's 18-month trade war with China, which has hurt business confidence.  Though tensions have eased with the signing this month of a phase one trade deal between DC & Beijing, manufacturing, which accounts for 11% of the economy, is not yet out of the woods.  Boeing (BA), a Dow stock) this month suspended production of its troubled 737 Max jetliner.  The aircraft has been grounded since last Mar following 2 fatal crashes.  Though airlines have continued to submit orders, there have been no deliveries, leading to a rise in inventories at factories.  BA's biggest assembly-line halt in more than 20 years is already causing ripple effects down the supply chain.  Economists estimate the production suspension could slice at least ½ a percentage point from Q1 GDP growth.  In Dec, overall orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last 3 years or more, rebounded 2.4% after tumbling 3.1% in the prior month.  They were boosted by a 7.6% surge in orders for transportation equipment, which followed an 8.3% drop in Nov.  Orders for defense aircraft & parts soared 168.3% last month, offsetting a 74.7% plunge in demand for civilian aircraft.  BA reported on its website that it had received only 3 commercial aircraft orders in Dec, down from 63 in Nov.   Dec is normally a strong month for orders.

US core capital goods orders post biggest drop in 8 months

The bulls are taking charge & investors are breathing a sigh of relief.  Yesterday's selloff was tough, but after the recent rally (shown below), that has to be expected for some reason.  The bulls are in command of the stock market with the averages close to record highs.

Dow Jones Industrials








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