Dow soared 267 (closing at the highs), advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ shot up 98. The MLP index added 1 to 228 & the REIT index gained 2+ to the 412s. Junk bond funds did little today & Treasuries continued weak. Oil rose to the 58s & gold was off 1 to 1552 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Home-builder confidence in the single-family home market remained at its highest rate since 1999 in Jan, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (NAHB). While confidence this month was one point lower than in Dec 2019, the strong overall confidence rate over the course of the last 2 months highlights a healthy labor market. "Low-interest rates and a healthy labor market combined with a need for additional inventory is setting the stage for further home building gains in 2020," NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde said. High builder confidence levels could be the result of steady & "attractive mortgage rates," Chief Economist Robert Dietz said, adding that "builders continue to grapple with a shortage of lots and labor while buyers are frustrated by a lack of inventory, particularly among starter homes." Homebuilders association Pres Jerry Howard argued that 2020 will be considered the "Roaring Twenties" in terms of the home-building market. "We're poised for a great time, I can tell you that," he said. "The recovery has been steady and consistent. We avoided the negative talk about a recession early last year. ... I was talking to my economist the other day, and he said there are no headwinds right now. There are some crosswinds, but there's nothing really holding us back." The US economy added 145K jobs in Dec, including 20K construction jobs, while the unemployment rate remained at 3.5%, its lowest rate since 1969. There is, however, still a large demand for construction workers. 62% of construction firms reported few or no qualified applicants & 46% cited the shortage of qualified labor as their top business problem. "The inability to assemble work teams is a key contributor to the comparably lackluster performance of the construction industry as evidenced by the December figures," National Federation of Independent Business Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said last week. "Owners are raising compensation in order to attract more qualified applicants to fill open positions."
The nation's largest retail trade group says holiday sales increased 4.1%, the top end of its forecast. The National Retail Federation (NRF) had expected growth of 3.8-4.2% for the Nov & Dec period. The growth is nearly double the 2.1% growth seen during the holiday 2018 period, which was hurt by a gov shutdown, stock market volatility & interest rate hikes. The holiday figures follow a report from the Commerce Dept that retail sales rose 0.3% in Dec from the previous month. Excluding sales at car dealers & gas stations, sales rose 0.5%, the best in 5 months. The results offer a dose of optimism for the retail industry. Retailers have benefited from a strong economy & a tight job market, but many are struggling to adjust to an increasing shift among its customers toward online. They're also battling the increasing dominance of online behemoths. Several large stores have reported disappointing holiday sales. A full picture of how consumers spent will be known when retailers report their Q4 results next month. "This is a strong finish to the holiday season, and we think it's a positive indicator of what's ahead," said Matthew Shay, CEO of the NRF. The numbers exclude sales from automobile dealers, gas stations & restaurants. Online & other non-store sales were up 14.6% over the prior year & are included in the total. The NRF forecast considers economic indicators such as consumer credit, disposable personal income & monthly retail sales.
China's gov welcomed an interim trade deal with DC & said the 2 sides need to address each other’s “core concerns.” The “Phase 1” agreement shows Beijing & DC “can find appropriate and effective solutions to relevant issues through dialogue,” said a foreign ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang. China agreed to increase purchases of US exports by $200B over 2 years & to stop pressuring companies to hand over technology. DC dropped plans for additional punitive tariffs on Chinese goods in the fight over Beijing's technology ambitions & trade surplus that threatens to depress global economic growth. “It is imperative that both parties work together, uphold the principles of equality and mutual respect, strictly abide by the agreement, address each other’s core concerns, and work hard to implement the Phase 1 agreement,” Geng added. Geng gave no details but Beijing wants tariffs imposed earlier on most of China's exports to the US to be rolled back, which the deal signed fails to do. The Trump administration says some penalties must remain in place even after a final agreement is reached to ensure Beijing carries out its promises. Pres Trump said earlier he planned to fly to Beijing to start a 2nd stage of talks, but economists say their remaining disputes are so complex that an agreement is unlikely to be reached until after the US presidential election in Nov. Asian stock markets were mixed after the signing. China's main market index closed down 0.5% while Hong Kong advanced & Tokyo was little-changed. Investors welcomed the trade truce but enthusiasm was tempered by questions about how China can carry out promises to buy tens Bs of $s of American soybeans, oil & other farm along with energy exports.
The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in early Jan fell for the 5th week in a row, giving a clean bill of health to strong US labor market as 2020 got underway. Initial jobless claims declined 10K to 204K in the last week, the gov said. The figures are seasonally adjusted. The forecast called for a 220K reading. Unemployment claims are seen as a rough measure of how many people are losing their jobs. They fell to a 50-year low of 193K last Apr & have mostly hovered in the low 200Ks since then. Some companies have reduced employment in the past few months, mainly in manufacturing, energy & transportation, but layoffs are still extremely low throughout the economy. The monthly average of new claims, meanwhile, dropped to 216K from 224K. The 4-week average filters out some of the weekly ups & downs in claims. The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, known as continuing claims, decreased by 37K to 1.77M. Last week it hit the highest level since Apr. Despite scattered reports of jobs cuts, many companies are still hiring & few are laying off employees. The economy added 145K new jobs in Dec, keeping the unemployment rate at 50-year low of 3.5%. A sturdy labor market, low US interest rates & easing trade tensions with China are likely to extend an economic expansion now in a record 11th year thru the end of 2020.
Gold futures gave up earlier gains to finish lower, as some upbeat US economic data dulled haven demand for the precious metal. Prices also declined on the back of further gains in US benchmark stock indexes, which followed the completion yesterday of the first stage in a trade pact between the US & China & the Senate approval of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement today. The Philadelphia Fed said its gauge of business activity in its region surged in Jan. New jobless claims fell for the 5th week in a row & retal sales increased 0.3% last month, the gov said. Meanwhile, the National Association of Home Builders' monthly confidence index dropped one point to 75 in Jan from 76 the month prior. Gold for Feb delivery declined by $3.50 (0.2%) to settle at $1550 an ounce, trading between a low of $1548 & high of $1558. Prices settled 0.6% higher a day earlier.
Gold prices finish lower as some upbeat economic data dull haven demand
Oil futures finished higher as news of the Senate approval of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, along with the signing of the China-US trade deal yesterday, boosted prospects for energy demand. West Texas Intermediate crude for Feb rose 71¢ (1.2%) to settle at $58.52 a barrel, after trading as high as $58.87. Prices yesterday settled at $57.81, the lowest for a front-month contract since last week. Mar Brent, the global benchmark, picked up 62¢ (1%) to end at $64.62 a barre, following its lowest finish since Dec 11 in the previous session. Intl tensions over trade policy have been one of the biggest headwinds for commodities like crude-oil, which tends to see price gains amid the expectations of healthy economic growth which can foster stronger consumption. Beyond trade developments, energy investors weighed signs of rising petroleum-product supplies. A report from the Energy Information Administration data yesterday showed much bigger-than-expected supply increases of 6.7M barrels for gasoline & 8.2M barrels for distillates for last week. US crude supplies, however, fell 2.5M barrels last week.
Oil ends higher as U.S. trade deals with Mexico, Canada and China boost demand prospects
Investors liked what they heard today. The 2 signed trade deals were welcomed & economic news was good. Markets reached new record highs, in what has become routine in recent years, & investors hope that optimism can take the Dow up to 30K (needing just another 703).
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Home-builder confidence in the single-family home market remained at its highest rate since 1999 in Jan, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (NAHB). While confidence this month was one point lower than in Dec 2019, the strong overall confidence rate over the course of the last 2 months highlights a healthy labor market. "Low-interest rates and a healthy labor market combined with a need for additional inventory is setting the stage for further home building gains in 2020," NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde said. High builder confidence levels could be the result of steady & "attractive mortgage rates," Chief Economist Robert Dietz said, adding that "builders continue to grapple with a shortage of lots and labor while buyers are frustrated by a lack of inventory, particularly among starter homes." Homebuilders association Pres Jerry Howard argued that 2020 will be considered the "Roaring Twenties" in terms of the home-building market. "We're poised for a great time, I can tell you that," he said. "The recovery has been steady and consistent. We avoided the negative talk about a recession early last year. ... I was talking to my economist the other day, and he said there are no headwinds right now. There are some crosswinds, but there's nothing really holding us back." The US economy added 145K jobs in Dec, including 20K construction jobs, while the unemployment rate remained at 3.5%, its lowest rate since 1969. There is, however, still a large demand for construction workers. 62% of construction firms reported few or no qualified applicants & 46% cited the shortage of qualified labor as their top business problem. "The inability to assemble work teams is a key contributor to the comparably lackluster performance of the construction industry as evidenced by the December figures," National Federation of Independent Business Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said last week. "Owners are raising compensation in order to attract more qualified applicants to fill open positions."
Homebuilder confidence is highest since 1999
The nation's largest retail trade group says holiday sales increased 4.1%, the top end of its forecast. The National Retail Federation (NRF) had expected growth of 3.8-4.2% for the Nov & Dec period. The growth is nearly double the 2.1% growth seen during the holiday 2018 period, which was hurt by a gov shutdown, stock market volatility & interest rate hikes. The holiday figures follow a report from the Commerce Dept that retail sales rose 0.3% in Dec from the previous month. Excluding sales at car dealers & gas stations, sales rose 0.5%, the best in 5 months. The results offer a dose of optimism for the retail industry. Retailers have benefited from a strong economy & a tight job market, but many are struggling to adjust to an increasing shift among its customers toward online. They're also battling the increasing dominance of online behemoths. Several large stores have reported disappointing holiday sales. A full picture of how consumers spent will be known when retailers report their Q4 results next month. "This is a strong finish to the holiday season, and we think it's a positive indicator of what's ahead," said Matthew Shay, CEO of the NRF. The numbers exclude sales from automobile dealers, gas stations & restaurants. Online & other non-store sales were up 14.6% over the prior year & are included in the total. The NRF forecast considers economic indicators such as consumer credit, disposable personal income & monthly retail sales.
Nation's largest retail trade group: holiday sales rose 4.1%
The Senate passed a new North American trade deal, sending one of Pres Donald Trump's top priorities to his
desk for ratification. The GOP-held chamber approved the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement in an overwhelming 89-10 vote. After
Trump signs the 3-nation pact, it needs only Canada's approval to
take effect. The Senate rushed to pass the agreement before the expected start of the pres's impeachment trial next week. The House delivered articles of impeachment to the upper chamber yesterday, & the Senate could take weeks to decide whether to convict Trump & remove him from office. USMCA
will head to the president more than 14 months after the North American
nations agreed to the deal. The Trump administration worked with
Dems to resolve concerns about enforcement of labor &
environmental standards, changes that led most but not all of the
party's lawmakers to support the agreement. The Senate’s passage of USMCA came a day after Trump signed a partial trade deal with China. The agreement with Beijing does not require congressional approval. USMCA
makes several tweaks to the North American Free Trade Agreement, which
took effect in 1994. Trump & Dems alike argued that the earlier
deal, which opened more free trade across the 3 countries, damaged
American workers by encouraging companies to move jobs out of the US.
Senate passes new North American trade deal, sending it to Trump
China's gov welcomed an interim trade deal with DC & said the 2 sides need to address each other’s “core concerns.” The “Phase 1” agreement shows Beijing & DC “can find appropriate and effective solutions to relevant issues through dialogue,” said a foreign ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang. China agreed to increase purchases of US exports by $200B over 2 years & to stop pressuring companies to hand over technology. DC dropped plans for additional punitive tariffs on Chinese goods in the fight over Beijing's technology ambitions & trade surplus that threatens to depress global economic growth. “It is imperative that both parties work together, uphold the principles of equality and mutual respect, strictly abide by the agreement, address each other’s core concerns, and work hard to implement the Phase 1 agreement,” Geng added. Geng gave no details but Beijing wants tariffs imposed earlier on most of China's exports to the US to be rolled back, which the deal signed fails to do. The Trump administration says some penalties must remain in place even after a final agreement is reached to ensure Beijing carries out its promises. Pres Trump said earlier he planned to fly to Beijing to start a 2nd stage of talks, but economists say their remaining disputes are so complex that an agreement is unlikely to be reached until after the US presidential election in Nov. Asian stock markets were mixed after the signing. China's main market index closed down 0.5% while Hong Kong advanced & Tokyo was little-changed. Investors welcomed the trade truce but enthusiasm was tempered by questions about how China can carry out promises to buy tens Bs of $s of American soybeans, oil & other farm along with energy exports.
China says ‘core concerns’ of trade deal are still not resolved
The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in early Jan fell for the 5th week in a row, giving a clean bill of health to strong US labor market as 2020 got underway. Initial jobless claims declined 10K to 204K in the last week, the gov said. The figures are seasonally adjusted. The forecast called for a 220K reading. Unemployment claims are seen as a rough measure of how many people are losing their jobs. They fell to a 50-year low of 193K last Apr & have mostly hovered in the low 200Ks since then. Some companies have reduced employment in the past few months, mainly in manufacturing, energy & transportation, but layoffs are still extremely low throughout the economy. The monthly average of new claims, meanwhile, dropped to 216K from 224K. The 4-week average filters out some of the weekly ups & downs in claims. The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, known as continuing claims, decreased by 37K to 1.77M. Last week it hit the highest level since Apr. Despite scattered reports of jobs cuts, many companies are still hiring & few are laying off employees. The economy added 145K new jobs in Dec, keeping the unemployment rate at 50-year low of 3.5%. A sturdy labor market, low US interest rates & easing trade tensions with China are likely to extend an economic expansion now in a record 11th year thru the end of 2020.
New jobless claims fall 5th straight week to 204,000 in sign of strong U.S. labor market
Gold futures gave up earlier gains to finish lower, as some upbeat US economic data dulled haven demand for the precious metal. Prices also declined on the back of further gains in US benchmark stock indexes, which followed the completion yesterday of the first stage in a trade pact between the US & China & the Senate approval of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement today. The Philadelphia Fed said its gauge of business activity in its region surged in Jan. New jobless claims fell for the 5th week in a row & retal sales increased 0.3% last month, the gov said. Meanwhile, the National Association of Home Builders' monthly confidence index dropped one point to 75 in Jan from 76 the month prior. Gold for Feb delivery declined by $3.50 (0.2%) to settle at $1550 an ounce, trading between a low of $1548 & high of $1558. Prices settled 0.6% higher a day earlier.
Gold prices finish lower as some upbeat economic data dull haven demand
Oil futures finished higher as news of the Senate approval of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, along with the signing of the China-US trade deal yesterday, boosted prospects for energy demand. West Texas Intermediate crude for Feb rose 71¢ (1.2%) to settle at $58.52 a barrel, after trading as high as $58.87. Prices yesterday settled at $57.81, the lowest for a front-month contract since last week. Mar Brent, the global benchmark, picked up 62¢ (1%) to end at $64.62 a barre, following its lowest finish since Dec 11 in the previous session. Intl tensions over trade policy have been one of the biggest headwinds for commodities like crude-oil, which tends to see price gains amid the expectations of healthy economic growth which can foster stronger consumption. Beyond trade developments, energy investors weighed signs of rising petroleum-product supplies. A report from the Energy Information Administration data yesterday showed much bigger-than-expected supply increases of 6.7M barrels for gasoline & 8.2M barrels for distillates for last week. US crude supplies, however, fell 2.5M barrels last week.
Oil ends higher as U.S. trade deals with Mexico, Canada and China boost demand prospects
Investors liked what they heard today. The 2 signed trade deals were welcomed & economic news was good. Markets reached new record highs, in what has become routine in recent years, & investors hope that optimism can take the Dow up to 30K (needing just another 703).
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment