Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Markets were higher ahead of signing the US-China trade deal

Dow rose 171, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ gained 39.  The MLP index was even at 227 & the REIT index added 3+ to 410 (close to its recent records).  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were in demand by investors.  Oil drifted lower into the high 57s & gold bounced back 6 to 1551.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil58.03
 -0.20-0.3%

GC=FGold   1,549.30
+4.70+0.3%






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Stocks rallied to record highs as investors awaited the signing of the historic phase one trade deal between the US & China & earnings season rolled on.  Both the S&P 500 & the Dow hit new peaks ahead of the deal's signing while the NAZ traded just below its all-time high.  Economic data out morning showed producer prices rose 0.1% year over year in Dec, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  That was below the 0.2% gain that was expected.  Looking at commodities, gold was up 0.3% at $1549 an ounce & West Texas Intermediate crude oil was little changed near $58.25 a barrel.  Treasuries gained, lowering the yield on the 10-year note by 2.3 basis points to 1.795%.  In Europe, Britain's FTSE was up 0.2% while France's CAC & Germany’s DAX were weaker by 0.2%.  Markets were broadly lower across Asia with China’s Shanghai Composite & Japan's Nikkei both down 0.5% & Hong Kong's Hang Seng off 0.4% .

Stocks hover near record highs ahead of phase one trade deal signing


Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said that Pres Trump will not be lifting any tariffs off of China for the time being.  "There has been some misreporting today about side agreements and things like that," Mnuchin said.  "There's no side agreements. The only way the president will be reducing the tariffs is if there is a phase two part of the agreement that is also fully enforceable."  Mnuchin called this "giant step" on phase one of the trade deal "an enforceable agreement."  "The president has been very clear since his first meeting with President Xi there were two issues here," Mnuchin added.  "One was he wanted to reduce the trade deficit, and two -- he wanted structural changes particularly around technology and other issues."  Beijing agreed to purchase $200B worth of US goods over the next 2 years & Trump has touted the prospect of China buying $40-50B of American agricultural products.  Mnuchin called the additional $200B "very significant."  "This is a great win for American business and American farmers," Mnuchin added.  Mnuchin praised Trump for being the first pres to negotiate such a historic trade deal.  In addition to it being a significant trade deal for America, Mnuchin said he believes it can be a good deal for China, too.  "They've got a large, growing middle-class, and if our companies can compete fairly, selling things to that middle class, that's a huge, growing market for our workers," Mnuchin said.  His comments coincide with Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer's comments when he explained how select tariffs will work.  "We maintain $380 billion worth of tariffs on important products," Lighthizer said.  "So across the board is a really, really good deal for the United States. And it will work if reformers in China want it to work. And if that happens, great. If it doesn't happen, it's fully enforceable."  "Ambassador Lighthizer really did a phenomenal job," Mnuchin said.  "We had people in every single agency dedicated under his work, getting this done."  Mnuchin said Lighthizer will be leading the enforcement office, & if there are any disputes, it will come to his office.  Trump's administration is expected to sign of phase one of the China trade deal today & Trump has said his team will be back to work almost immediately on "phase two" of the deal.  The pres has previously suggested that a complete trade deal could involve 2 or 3 phrases.

Steven Mnuchin reveals when Trump will lift China tariffs


Target (TGT), a Dividend Aristocrat, missed its own expectations for 2019 holiday season sales, blaming weakness in toys & electronics sales for growth of just 1.4% that sent shares sharply lower.  "While we knew this season was going be challenging, it was even more challenging than we expected,'' CEO Brian Cornell said.  Digital sales grew 19% compared with 2018's 29% rise, Cornell said, calling the reported numbers a "tough miss'.''  These numbers come just a week after several US retailers reported lower sales for the key shopping period, raising doubts about the broader health of the retail sector.  The holiday season, which marks the busiest time for retailers & records the most sales during the year, was also ^ days shorter in 2019 as Thanksgiving came later than usual.  Lower sales were in toys, electronics & home products, which typically account for a higher portion of sales during the holidays, had a larger impact on overall sales growth.  The company now expects Q4 same-store sales to be in line with its holiday period growth of 1.4%, down from its prior range of 3-4% growth.  It maintained its forecast for full-year profit.  The stock sank 8.56.(7%).
If you would like to learn more about TGT, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/TGT?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Weak report sees Target shares tanking


Bank of America (BAC) profit dropped 3.9% in the last 3 months of 2019 as interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve rendered new loans less lucrative, posing a challenge to lenders across America.  But shares of the lender were little changed following the results.  EPS of 74¢ still topped the 68¢ estimate, as healthy consumer spending eased the impact of declining interest revenue, the company said.  "The company managed well through a period of transition from rising rates to lower rates over a short period of time," CFO Paul Donofrio said.  "We are also aided by diverse lines of business and operations."  Earnings in consumer banking, the company's biggest business, tumbled 10% to $3.1B, largely due to lower interest income.  Combined credit & debit-card spending increased 6%, with record purchases during the lucrative holiday shopping season.  The stock was 70¢ lower.
If you would like to learn more about BAC, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BAC?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Bank of America profit slips as Fed slashes interest rates


Optimism by investors is high while they wait for the official signing of phase 1 on the US-China trade deal.  Earnings could be choppy, especially from banks, as they had to deal with lower rates from the Fed's rate cuts.  The popular averages are at record levels & traders have their eyes on 30K for the Dow.

Dow Jones Industrials








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