Monday, January 13, 2020

Markets edge higher as investors await China deal signing

Dow went up 40, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ rose gained 31.  The MLP index crawled higher in the 223s & the REIT index added 2+ to the 406s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold.  Oil fell to the 58s & Treasuries dropped 6 to 1553.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil58.32
-0.72-1.2%

GC=FGold   1,551.00
-9.10-0.6%






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It was another down year for vehicle sales in China as a trade war with DC & an economic slowdown fueled consumer anxiety & demand for electric vehicles weakened.  Sales in the industry's biggest global market declined 9.6% from 2018 levels to 21.4M sedans, SUVs & minivans, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).  The downturn is squeezing global & Chinese automakers at a time when they are spending Bs of $s to meet gov targets to sell electric vehicles.  Ford's (F) China sales fell for the 3rd year in a row in 2019, dropping to less than ½ of what it sold at its zenith in 2016 & the company said the situation for the broader market is likely to get worse in 2020.  Ford sold 568K vehicles last year in China, down 26.1% from a year earlier, the company said today. While that was an improvement from 2018's 36.9%  decline, the total number of vehicles sold was less than ½ of the 1.27M figure reached in its peak year of 2016.  In Q4-2019, Ford sales dropped 14.7%.  General Motors (GM) saw a 15% drop in 2019 sales from a year earlier to 3.09M vehicles.  The company delivered 3.65M vehicles in 2018 & 4.04M units in 2017.  After 2 decades of explosive growth, China suffered its first annual decline in auto sales in 2018 as unease over the tariff war with Pres Trump & slowing economic growth prompted consumers to put off big purchases.  Sales in Dec were off 0.1% from a year earlier, CAAM said.  That would be an improvement over double-digit declines in previous months. The group gave no Dec sales total, but based on other data given it would be about 2.2M vehicles.  Sales of electric & gasoline-electric hybrid sedans & SUVs in 2019 sank 4% over a year earlier to 1.2M.  That would still make China the technology's biggest market by far, accounting for at least ½ of global purchases.  Monthly sales of electric vehicles rose by double digits in early 2019 but plunged after Beijing ended gov subsidies to buyers in Jul.   Regulators shifted the burden of promoting the technology to automakers by imposing mandatory sales targets.

China auto sales fall again in 2019 amid trade war


Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he is working with China to cut off the minimal flow of Iranian oil exports to the country.  "We've cut off probably over 95% of the oil revenues, so there's a very small amount of oil revenues, and you're right, a component of that, a big component of that is China," Mnuchin said.  "I sat down with the Chinese officials. They flew in a delegation to meet with us and the State Department to talk about this. They've cut off all of the state companies from buying oil, and we're working closely with them to make sure that they cease all additional oil activities."  Mnuchin said the administration's goal is to cut off oil revenues going to "bad acts."  He pointed out that China & even European countries could face US sanctions over Iranian oil.  "China is subject to sanctions just like everybody else," Mnuchin said.  "We actually sanctioned some of their shipping companies that were involved in the oil, and we will continue to pursue sanctions activities against China and anybody else around the world that continues to do business with them."  "The Europeans are adhering to our primary sanctions..." Mnuchin added, using France as an example.  "They would be subject to secondary sanctions, and they understand that."

US threatens sanctions if China keeps buying Iranian oil


Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that Pres Trump should be able to do as he chooses when it comes to intl security.  Speaking during a panel session at the Intl Petroleum Technology Conference (IPTC) in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, Abdulaziz said: “The president of the United States is the president of the United States, he can do whatever he wishes.”  He's “certainly” not accountable to me or “anybody in this room,” he added.  Abdulaziz's comments come as energy market participants continue to closely monitor heightened tensions in the Middle East.  The US killed Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani earlier this month, triggering a dramatic escalation that many feared could result in a widening regional conflict.  Iran, an arch-rival of Saudi Arabia in the region, responded to the US attack by launching missiles at two military bases housing US troops in Iraq.  Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has since said the missile attacks were a “slap on the face” of the US, but such military actions were “not enough.”  The situation remains tense, but both sides have sought to back off from intensifying the conflict over recent days.  “The U.S. is a strategic partner and it has a big role in terms of international security,” Abdulaziz said.  “We are leaving it to our friends of the U.S. to conduct themselves in a manner they see fit in attending to a situation like this,” he added.

Saudi energy minister on Trump’s actions in the Middle East: ‘He can do whatever he wishes’

The stock averages are higher, but investors are nervous.  A lot is riding on having the signing ceremony for phase 1 of the US-China trade deal & the intl scene is uncertain.  China has to deal with problems like slow growth & Hong Kong.  Then there is the Iran story which is unfolding.  The stock market will get a big boost on Wed if the China deal is signed because the bulls will have their eyes on the 30K target for the Dow.  

Dow Jones Industrials








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