Friday, January 24, 2020

Markets decline after spreading coronavirus

Dow fell 24, decliners over advancers about 3-2 & NAZ gave back 2.  The MLP index fell 1+ to 216 & the REIT index was flat in the 418s.  Junk bond funds were slightly higher & Treasuries rose in price.  Oil dropped 1+ to the 54s (more below) & gold went up 5 to 1570  on the spreading virus scare.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil54.65-0.94 -1.7%

GC=FGold   1,565.60
+0.20+0.0%






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Pres Trump's top economic advisor said, thanks to the administration's policies, the US is experiencing a boom for blue-collar workers.  National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow explained what's behind the increase.  “America’s working and the president’s policies with tax cuts and deregulation and opening energy and reducing trade barriers and really, for the first time ... at least since the 90s, if not longer ... the middle and the lower end of the wage earners are outpacing their bosses in terms of growth,” he said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.  “And we think that’s terrific.”  Pay for the bottom 25% of wage earners, who account for 82%  of the population, rose 4.5% in Nov from the year-ago period, according to recent data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  That's the highest since 2008.  Wages for top earners, meanwhile, rose just 2.9% that month.  Kudlow credited supply-side economics, favored by his mentor Pres Ronald Reagan, for the good news.  "I mean, as an old Reagan guy, Reagan used to talk about take-home pay, and take-home pay is roaring right now in the U.S., and it’s right in that middle- to lower-middle zone, growing by some $5,000 per household," Kudlow explained saying that is "a big deal.”  Kudlow pointed to the fact that more than ½ of the households in the US own shares through either a 401(k) or an IRA, an individual retirement account.  “You look at the numbers, the bottom 50 percent has had a 47 percent increase in their net wealth between home prices and share prices,” he said.  Kudlow called that "a booster rocket to this economy" while speaking in Davos.  “Three-and-a-half percent unemployment rate with no inflation just shows you that liberalizing the economy can work and create stronger growth,” he later explained.  “Hopefully other countries will make similar moves.”   Overall, wages have accelerated this year by an average of 3.6% , as unemployment has held steady at 3.5%, a ½-century low.  For employers, low employment means fewer people are looking for a job, limiting the supply of available employees and increasing competition to get the best workers.  According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the ratio of unemployed people to job openings is less than 1-to-1, compared to a decade ago, when it was 6-to-1.

Larry Kudlow: Trump's economic policies bolstering blue-collar workers


The Chinese city of Wuhan is rapidly building a new 1000-bed hospital to treat victims of a new coronavirus, mobilizing machinery to get it ready by early next week, state media said.   The virus has killed 25 people in China & infected more than 800, the gov said, as the World Health Organization declared it an emergency but stopped short of declaring the epidemic of intl concern.  Most of the cases are in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, where the virus is believed to have originated late last year.  The new hospital is being built around a holiday complex originally intended for local workers, set in gardens by a lake on the outskirts of the city, the official Changjiang Daily reported.   Prefabricated buildings, which will have 1K beds, will be put up, it said.  Building machinery, including 35 diggers & 10 bulldozers, arrived at the site last night, with the aim to get the new facility ready by Mon.  “The construction of this project is to solve the shortage of existing medical resources,” the report said.  “Because it will be prefabricated buildings, it will not only be built fast but it also won’t cost much.”  China State Construction Engineering, one of the companies building the hospital, said it was “doing all it can and would overcome difficulties” to play its part, adding it now had more than 100 workers on the site.  Images on state television showed a flurry of activity at the muddy building site with dozens of diggers painted in multiple colors hard at work preparing the ground, as a stream of trucks ferried in materials & equipment.  The hospital aims to copy the experience of Beijing in 2003, when the city battled Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).  As many as 774 people died globally in the SARS epidemic, which reached nearly 30 countries.  At the time, Beijing built the Xiaotangshan hospital in its northern suburbs in just a week.  Within 2 months, it treated one-7th of all the country's SARS patients, the Changjiang Daily said.  “It created a miracle in the history of medical science,” the paper added.  The Beijing hospital, built by 7000 workers, was originally designed only to take people who were in recovery from SARS to relieve pressure on other hospitals.  In the end, it treated nearly 700 SARS patients.

Coronavirus outbreak: China to build new hospital in week


Oil prices today as the widening coronavirus outbreak threatened to curb global demand. Brent crude oil, the intl benchmark, fell 1.8% to $60.90 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the US benchmark, dipped 2% to $54.47.  They have fallen by 5.9% & 6.9% this week, respectively.  The outbreak, which originated in Wuhan, China, has sickened 830 people & killed 26 in the country, China's National Health Commission said today.  Cases of the virus have also been discovered in the US, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Thailand & Nepal.  Yesterday, the World Health Organization said that it's still “a bit too early to consider that this is a public health emergency of international crisis.”  Even before the coronavirus outbreak, oil prices were under pressure due to a supply glut, which isn’t expected to end anytime soon despite OPEC cutting production at its Dec meeting.  “We expect, even with the cuts coming from OPEC+, we think at least the first half of this year, we will see a surplus of 1 million barrels per day,” Intl Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said at the World Economic Forum.  Brent crude oil has fallen 7.5% this year while West Texas Intermediate crude oil has tumbled 10.7%.

Oil plunges as coronavirus outbreak threatens demand


At the opening, the Dow rose to record territory.  However, negative reports on the spreading virus brought on selling.  The Dow has dropped about 150 from its earlier highs.  This has become a bigger worry for investors, even bigger than the goings on in DC.

Dow Jones Industrials








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