Monday, November 2, 2020

Markets climb higher ahead of tomorrow's presidential election

Dow jumped 469, advancers over decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ gained 61.  The MLP index were flattish in the 111s & the REIT index advanced 6+ to the 341 despite bankruptcies by 2 REITs which invested in malls.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries also traded higher.  Oil rose to 36 & gold went up 12 to 1892,

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
 
stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil35.77
-0.02-0.1%



















GC=FGold   1,888.40
+8.50+0.5%























 




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US manufacturing activity accelerated in Oct, with new orders jumping to their highest level in nearly 17 years amid a shift in spending toward goods like motor vehicles as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity increased to a reading of 59.3 last month.  That was the highest since Nov 2018 & followed a reading of 55.4 in Sep.  The ISM survey is the last piece of major economic data before the presidential election.  A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.3% of the US economy.  The forecast called for the index rising to 55.8 in Oct.  The ISM's forward-looking new orders sub-index surged to a reading of 67.9 last month, the highest reading since 2004, from 60.2 in Sep.  With orders booming, manufacturing employment expanded for the first time since Jul 2019.  The ISM's manufacturing employment gauge rose to a reading of 53.2 from 49.6 in Sep.

U.S. manufacturing near two-year high in October

Clorox (CLX), a Dividend Aristocrat, raised its full-year outlook as sales surged 27% in the 3 months thru Sep while consumers stocked up on cleaning products amid the COVID-19 pandemic.  The household products manufacturer reported fiscal Q1 sales of $1.92B, surpassing the $1.75B estimate.  EPS was $3.22 versus a forecast for adjusted earnings of $2.32.  “We delivered another quarter of outstanding results to have a strong start to the fiscal year, with broad-based strength across our portfolio, driving double-digit sales growth in all reportable segments," said CEO Linda Rendle.  Sales rose by double digits in 8 of 10 business segments.  The health & wellness unit, which includes cleaning products, saw sales spike 28% to $813M & made up 42% of all revenue.  The household unit was the fastest growing with sales increasing by 39% as the grilling business more than doubled.  CLX raised its full-year 2021 adjusted EPS growth forecast to 5-8% ($7.70-7.95).  The stock soared 10.37 (5%).
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Clorox sales spike as coronavirus spurs demand for cleaning products

Oil prices were under pressure as Western Europe imposed lockdowns aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19 & Libya ramped up its production following the lifting of a force-majeure blockade.  Brent crude oil, the intl standard, fell 68¢ to $37.26 per barrel & West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the US benchmark, was off 84¢ at $34.95.  The UK, France & Germany were among the countries that imposed stay-at-home orders over the weekend as new COVID-19 case counts remained near all-time highs.  The new measures are expected to last for at least a month.  Global lockdowns announced earlier this year reduced oil demand by about 30M barrels per day (bpd), driving WTI crude below zero for the first time.  Declining demand is expected at a time when the market is likely to get hit with a new wave of supply as Libyan production gets back up to normal.  Libyan oil production has returned 800K bpd, up more than 100K barrels from just a few days ago.  Output is expected to top 1M bpd within the next month.  Oil exports from the country were subject to an 8-month blockade by eastern forces that was lifted last week.  The blockade resulted in production declining to about 100K bpd from 1.2M bpd.

Oil prices sink as Europe reintroduces coronavirus restrictions

The US economy is doing reasonably well despite the negative news on the war with the virus.  However, the service sector which makes up the bulk of the economy is still struggling & those conditions may continune for some time.  Investors continue to be optimistic & are returning to the stock market after last month's selling.  Meanwhile, negative thinking investors are buying gold.

Dow Jones Industrials







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