Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Markets rise amid tight election races

Dow advanced 367 (well off session highs), advancers over decliners 4-3 & NAZ soared 430.  The MLP index rose 1 to the 113s & the REIT index went up fractionally to the 351s.  Junk bond funds were bid higher & Treasuries rose in price on heavy demand.  Oil rose 1+ to the 39s & gold fell 11 to 1899 (more on both below).

China's foreign ministry said the US has sent out wrong and grave signals to the Taiwan military forces on the potential drone sale deal.  China will take legitimate & necessary responses in light of the changing circumstances, Wang Wenbin, spokesman of the ministry told a regular briefing.  The State Dept cleared the potential sale of 4 sophisticated US made aerial drones to Taiwan in a formal notification sent to Congress, the Pentagon said, the last step before finalizing a weapons sale that will further anger China.

China angered by US sale of drones to Taiwan, vows response

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said his top priority remains passing a new economic stimulus bill before the end of the year.  McConnell, who won his reelection bid, said that another relief package would be the chamber's chief focus when it reconvenes next week.  He also said that state & local aid, a consistent Dem demand in relief discussions with the White House, could be included in a new bill.  “As I’ve said repeatedly in the last few months, we need another rescue package,” McConnell said today.  “Hopefully, the partisan passions that prevented us from doing another rescue package will subside with the election. And I think we need to do it and I think we need to do it before the end of the year.”  “I think that’s job one when we get back,” McConnell said.  “Hopefully we get a more cooperative situation than we’ve had.”  Although Reps appeared set to retain their majority in the Senate as of today, he struck a cautious outlook & cited tight contests in key battleground states.

McConnell says reaching an economic stimulus deal is ‘job one’ when Senate returns

Oil futures rose, brushing off an unclear outcome in the presidential election, as investors focused on a weekly decline in US crude supplies & the possibility that OPEC & their allies will delay the relaxation of output curbs early next year.  The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude inventories declined by 8M barrels last week.  That matched the fall reported by the American Petroleum Institute yesterday.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Dec rose $1.10 (2.9%) to $38.76 a barrel.  Jan Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up $1.17 (3%) at $40.88 a barre. 

Oil prices tally a third straight climb as U.S. crude supplies post a hefty weekly drop

Gold futures finished below $1900 an ounce as the 2020 race for the White House looked uncertain & the prospect of Dem majority in the Senate faded, putting in jeopardy another large & reflationary fiscal aid package which might have been bullish for the precious metal.  Commodity investors also awaited the Federal Reserve's latest policy update in the wake of the tight election race.  Gold for Dec fell $14 (0.7%) to settle at $1896 an ounce.  Yesterday prices for the most-active contract had gained nearly 1% gain on Election Day to settle at the highest since Oct 27.  US election day results haven't revealed a clear winner between incumbent Trump & Biden, with a number of key states still too close to call & mail-in ballots due to the coronavirus pandemic lengthening the process of tabulating state returns.  Key battleground states, Michigan, Wisconsin  & Pennsylvania could take days to determine, experts said, even as they appear to lean toward Biden by some unofficial tallies.  Nonetheless, a broad Dem “blue wave” sweep in DC, where a Dem takes the White House & gains a majority in the Senate, is seeming less likely & curbing the expectation that the gov will dole out more funding to help troubled businesses & workers.  Prices for gold pared some of their earlier losses after the US private-sector payrolls report for Oct came in somewhat worse than expected.  A report from Automatic Data Processing showed that 365K private-sector jobs were created in Oct, compared with consensus estimates for 675K.   That report comes ahead of the more closely followed jobs report from the Labor Dept on Fri.

Gold prices fall back under $1,900 as prospects for ‘blue wave’ fiscal-aid package in Congress fade

Stocks were heavily purchased in the AM, but that enthusiasm faded in the PM.  The Dow finished 450 below session highs amid all the uncertainty about various elections.  Investors will have to wait until tomorrow to hear the Fed speak about the economy.  Traders will be waiting for those words.  The big jobs report for Oct comes on Fri.  There will be plenty of news to digest in the last 2 days of this week.

Dow Jones Industrials








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