Monday, November 30, 2020

Markets fall, give back some of November's big gain

Dow sank 271 (above session lows), decliners over advancers 5-2 & NAZ declined 7.  The MLP index dropped 3+ to 136 & the REIT index fell 2+ to 366.  Junk bond funds remained higher & Treasuries slid lower.  Oil edged slightly lower in the 45s & gold was off 6 to 1782 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The "current surge in coronavirus cases" is "very concerning" to the chief scientist behind Operation Warp Speed, the public-private partnership between biotech company Moderna (MRNA) & the federal gov to produce a vaccine.  “As it has been said, we’re probably going to experience another surge on top of the current surge and, unfortunately, there will be a lot of diseases, a lot of deaths,”  Operation Warp Speed scientific head Dr. Moncef Slaoui said.  His comments come after the number of new COVID-19 cases reported  in the US topped 200K for the first time Fri.  The highest previous daily count was 196K on Nov 20.  MRNA's public-private partnership with the federal gov Operation Warp Speed has been "making significant progress" in the production of the vaccine, according to Slaoui.  MRNA announced that it will apply for emergency use authorization of its coronavirus vaccine, being the 2nd company to do so, coming behind Pfizer (PFE) which had already filed for EUA.  The FDA plans to decide by early Dec.  Slaoui said that PFE & MRNA''s vaccines are "94-95% effective & 100% effective against severe disease."  With the process for vaccination authorization underway, Slaoui said there are “treatments” that have been approved & made available this past month, which are “two monoclonal antibodies” & “a small monoclonal antibody."  However, he also noted that the "size of the surge is such that we are not able to produce as quickly as  much treatment as needed."  “The vaccines, I hope, will be approved next week and the week after and we are standing ready to immediately distribute them across jurisdictions across the states, to make them available on the basis of the priority that the Center for Disease Control and it’s advisors will at least advise who should be vaccinated first,” Slaoui said.  Slaoui added that though there has been “tremendous work to make the vaccine available,” there is only enough to “immunize 20 million people in December.”  “It’s going to take a while before we have enough vaccines for everybody, so, resilience and patience are very important,” Slaoui added.  Slaoui projected that there “should be enough vaccines to cover the earth's population” by Jun 2021.

Operation Warp Speed scientist touts speedy vaccine, warns of virus surge

Pres-elect Biden formally announced former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen as his pick for Treasury secretary.  If confirmed, she would make history as the first woman to hold the role, & she is a familiar face to the financial markets & welcomed by progressives.  Yellen also served as head of the Council of Economic Advisors under Pres Clinton.  Biden also said he intends to pick Dem political consultant Neera Tanden as director of the Office of Management & Budget.  Tanden is the pres of the liberal think tank Center for American Progress.  “As we get to work to control the virus, this is the team that will deliver immediate economic relief for the American people during this economic crisis and help us build our economy back better than ever," Biden said.  "This team is comprised of respected and tested groundbreaking public servants who will help the communities hardest hit by COVID-19 and address the structural inequities in our economy."  Progressives, including Sen Bernie Sanders' former speechwriter David Sirota, were quick to criticize Tanden, a close ally of Hillary Clinton's.  Reps aren't likely to support Tanden's confirmation, either.  "Neera Tanden, who has an endless stream of disparaging comments about the Republican Senators’ whose votes she'll need, stands zero chance of being confirmed," a spokesman for Sen John Cornyn wrote on Twitter.

Biden picks Yellen for Treasury secretary, Dem operative Tanden for OMB director

Gold futures declined, capping a troubling month for the haven asset that saw prices mark their lowest settlement since early Jul, following a loss of nearly 6% for the month of Nov.  Feb gold fell $7.20 (0.4%) to settle at $1780, after futures lost over 4% last week, marking the steepest weekly slide since Sep 25, the lowest since Jul 1.  Gold futures lost 5.6% for the month.  Prices trade more than 1% below their long-term, 200-day moving average that stands at $1806.  The skid for gold has mostly comes on the back of reinvigorated enthusiasm for assets perceived as risky, like stocks, as apparent progress on vaccines has emboldened bullish equity investors, driving buying away from safe-haven bullion.

Gold ends at a 5-month low as vaccine news pulls prices down by nearly 6% in November

The Treasury & Federal Reserve have extended 4 key COVID-19 safety net lending facilities until Mar 31 2021.  The facilities include the Commercial Paper Funding Facility & Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, which drew funding from the Treasury's pre-existing Exchange Stabilization Fund balance, as well as the Paycheck Protection Liquidity Facility & Primary Dealer Credit Facility, which did not.  Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin announced the extension, saying he approved it with “an abundance of caution.”  “I am pleased that the Federal Reserve Board unanimously voted to approve these extensions, and I am proud of the work our teams have done to successfully execute these programs,” Mnuchin said.  The lending programs were created during the COVID-19 pandemic as a series of tools to help stabilize the then-flagging economy.  While the lending facilities have been little used so far, they were viewed as a vital backstop for the pandemic-ravaged economy.  The original expiration was set for the end of the year & until recently Mnuchin insisted that the Treasury had enough tools to keep the markets “comfortable.”  “To the extent that we have over $750 billion of firepower between what's in the Exchange Stabilization Fund & what the Federal Reserve can do going forward, markets should be very comfortable that we have plenty of capacity left,” Mnuchin said.  He had advised that any money set aside to be used for Fed lending programs but had not been used should be given to Congress for reallocation.  The Federal Reserve previously said that it would prefer the “full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy.”

Fed extends emergency lending programs past Dec. 31

Oil futures settled a bit lower as OPEC & its allies continued to debate the fate of existing output curbs in the face of a renewed rise in COVID-19 cases in the US & Europe.  But crude logged a sharp monthly rise in Nov, buoyed by hope for a vaccine that would ease virus-related economic restrictions & losses in energy demand.  The market awaited a final decision from OPEC & their allies tomorrow regarding a potential extension of crude production curbs into the new year.  The OPEC Conference held today concluded without an official decision, though some reports say oil producers reached a general agreement to extend current output cuts.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jan edged down by 19¢ (0.4%) to settle at $45.34 a barrel.  The US benchmark saw a 27% monthly advance in Nov, based on the front-month contract.  The global benchmark, Feb Brent crude fell 37¢ (0.8%) at $47.88 a barrel. The front month Jan Bre, which expired at the end of the day’s session, lost 59¢ (1.2%) at $47.59 a barrel.  Brent, based on the front-month contract, saw a 27% Nov rise.  Algeria Minster of Energy Abdelmadjid Attar said today that OPEC members reached an agreement to extend existing oil production cuts of 7.7M barrels per day by 3 months from Jan.  Attar, who is also pres of the OPEC Conference, said OPEC would work with other members in the OPEC+ alliance at tomorrow's meeting to back that policy for an extension of the cuts.

Oil ends lower ahead of the OPEC+ decision, but post a November gain of 27%

This was time to take big profits.  However Nov was very good to investors.  Even with all the uncertainty going on in DC, the Dow shot up a massive 3.1K.  While stocks advanced, gold declined.  It's down about 10% from its recent high above 2K.

Dow Jones Industrials








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