Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Markets jump on higher home prices

Dow shot up 384, advancers over decliners better than 4-1 & NAZ advanced 105.  The MLP index was up 5+ to the 146s (5 month high) & the REIT index gained 6+ to the 375s (not seen since mid Mar).   Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries drifted lower in price.  Oil rose 1+ to almost 45 (a high since the selloff in Mar) & gold sank 35 to 1802.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil44.86
 +1.80+4.2%












GC=FGold   1,800.50
 -37.30-2.0%










 

 




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New Covid-19 infection levels in the US are showing the earliest signs of improvement.  The national 7-day average of daily new infections now stands at 172K as of yesterday, according Johns Hopkins University data.  That's an all-time record, but only 11% higher than the prior week.  Average daily new infections had been posting roughly 30% weekly growth before beginning to taper off late last week.  It's possible rising demand for Covid tests ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday is slowing turnaround & reporting, but for the moment new case tallies appear to be slowing.  US Surgeon General Jerome Adams is pleading with Americans to grasp “the severity of the moment” & to stay vigilant against Coid-19, as a record number of hospitalizations has pushed health-care professionals to the brink.  “We are almost to a vaccine. ... We’ve got new remedies out there. We just need you, the American people, to hold on a little bit longer,” Adams, a White House Coronavirus Task Force member, said.  Health officials last week strongly recommended that Americans avoid travel for the holiday.  The US is currently on pace to surpass 85K hospitalizations for Covid-19 tomorrow, a record, as 30 of the 50 states reported record numbers of patients this month.  That has taxed already exhausted health-care providers.

U.S. average daily deaths top 1,500 as cases show the earliest signs of improvement

Covid-induced demand from homebuyers over the summer caused an exceptionally strong spike in home prices.  Values jumped 7% annually in Sep, up from a 5.8% annual gain in Aug, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price NSA Index.  That is the largest annual gain since 2014.  Prices are now nearly 23% higher than their last peak in 2006.  The 10-City Composite was up 6.2% year over year, up from 4.9% in the previous month.  The 20-City Composite posted a 6.6% gain, up from 5.3% in the previous month.  There was no reading for Detroit, due to data collection issues resulting from the pandemic.  This index is a t3-month running average, so it represents prices from Jul-Sep, when buyers were eagerly seeking homes with more space for working and schooling at home due to the coronavirus.  “Housing prices were notably – I am tempted to say ‘very’ – strong in September,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director & global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices.  “This month’s increase may reflect a catch-up of COVID-depressed demand from earlier this year; it might also presage future strength, as COVID encourages potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. The next several months’ reports should help to shed light on this question.”  Phoenix, Seattle & San Diego continued to see the highest annual gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in Sep.  Dallas & New York saw the smallest annual gains but were still up in the 4% range compared with Sep 2019.  All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ended Sep 2020 versus the year ended Aug 2020. 

Home prices see biggest spike in 6 years in September, according to S&P Case Shiller

Best Buy (BBY) Q3 earnings soared past expectations, but shares dropped as the retailer warned of headwinds from higher shipping costs, inventory challenges & lower-margin holiday sales.  The retailer declined to provide an outlook for due to the uncertainty created by the coronavirus pandemic.  CFO Matt Bilunas said the company will have higher supply chain costs from parcel surcharges & will make less money because videogame consoles, a popular holiday gift, are lower margin.  “We believe our Q4 sales growth will be positive, but we don’t expect sales trends to remain at the levels we experienced during Q3,” he said.  During the pandemic, sales have gotten a boost from stay-at-home trends as more consumers need technology to set up their home office or to help their children go to school remotely.  The company decided to shut its stores & switch to curbside pickup only in the early months of the global health crisis — despite being deemed an essential retailer.  Barry said customers continued to turn to the big-box retailer in Q3 to get everything from kitchen appliances & laptops for school to home theater equipment.  EPS was $1.48, up from $1.10 a year earlier.  Excluding items, EPS was $2.06, higher than the $1.70 expected.  Revenue rose to $11.85B from $9.76B a year earlier, which beat expectations of $11B.  Same-store sales grew by 23% overall.  US same-store sales were up 22.6% while they were 27.3% higher internationally.  Online revenue in the US jumped by 174% to $3.8B.  It was the 2nd-best qtr for US online revenue ever, even besting sales during last holiday season.  The stock dropped 6.64 (5%).
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/BBY?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Best Buy tops estimates on strong online sales, but shares fall on lack of holiday forecast

Investors are feeling great, taking the Dow to record highs & nearing the important 30K level.  Success with new vaccines & treatments for the virus are encouraging.  And data on new cases is looking a little better.  Meanwhile the latest stimulus bill is stuck in the mud.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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