Friday, November 6, 2020

Markets slide lower on election drama

Dow was off 66 at the close, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ crawled up 4.  The MLP index dropped 4+ to 110 along with lower oil prices & the REIT index was off 2+ to the 249s after a good run this week.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasures were sold.  Oil fell 1+ to the 37s & gold rose 7 to 1954 (more on both below).

Gold futures finished higher to extend their gain to a 7-week high, notching the biggest weekly rise since Jul amid the sharpest weekly fall for $ since Mar.  Precious metals have at least partly benefited from uncertainty around the race for the White House.  A global surge in the spread of COVID-19 also has provided support for bullion. The global tally for confirmed cases of COVID-19 climbed to 48M today, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University, while the death toll rose above 1.2M.  The US has the highest case tally in the world at 9.6M & highest death toll at 235K.  Gold for Dec finished up 0.3% ($4.90) at $1951 an ounce, following a 2.7% rally for the yellow metal to its highest finish since Sep 18.  For the week, bullion marked a weekly rise of 3.8%, which is its best such gain since the period ended Jul 31.

Gold logs biggest weekly rise in 3 months as U.S. dollar slumps

Oil futures ended sharply lower, under pressure as COVID-19 cases continued to rise, underlining worries over demand as some countries introduce new restrictions on business & consumer activity.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Dec fell $1.65 (4.3%) to close at $37.14 a barrel, while Jan Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell $1.48 (3.6%) to $39.45 a barrel.  Investors fear the continued rise in COVID-19 infections threatens to squelch the economic rebound.  The US yesterday saw new cases top 100K for a 2nd day in a row, marking consecutive records, while several European countries have imposed tougher business lockdowns.  Crude oil futures still logged solid weekly gains, however, with WTI up 3.8% & Brent rising 4%.  Crude was boosted earlier in the week as stocks extended gains following Election Day.  Joe Biden continued to close in on a victory over Pres Trump today.  That's a potential weight on crude, making a relationship with Iran more likely, which would add more crude to the market.  Crude remained lower after oil-field-services company Baker Hughes said the number of US oil rigs rose by 5 this week to 226.

Oil ends sharply lower as COVID-19 cases rise, further threatening demand

The 2 most powerful people in Congress for the next 2 months renewed their calls for coronavirus stimulus.  A relief deal could prove just as difficult to reach as it did before Election Day.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell again called for a targeted aid package.  He argued a better-than-expected Oct jobs report that saw the US unemployment rate fall to 6.9% reduces the need for a sweeping stimulus bill.  “I think it reinforces the argument that I’ve been making for the last few months, that something smaller – rather than throwing another $3 trillion at this issue – is more appropriate,” he told reporters.  McConnell noted that he will not necessarily lead the Senate in Jan: Reps & Dems will hold at least 48 seats, with 4 races unsettled.  Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called for Reps to restart aid talks that fell apart before the 2020 election.  She told reporters that the “imperative to act could not be greater” after the US posted a record of more than 120K new Covid-19 infections yesterday.  Still, she said a narrow bill “doesn’t appeal to me at all.”  The chambers of Congress failed to find common ground on relief before the election, as Senate Reps tried to pass a $500B aid bill & House Dems approved a $2.2T package.  Areas of disagreement between the parties included state & local gov aid, enhanced unemployment insurance & liability protections for businesses.  Dems will keep control of the House next Congress, though they will likely lose seats & Pelosi is expected to serve as speaker for at least one more term.  McConnell said earlier this week that he hopes to pass more relief money before the end of the year.  How the results of the presidential election will shape Pres Trump's desire to approve a bill during the lame-duck session remains to be seen.

McConnell and Pelosi are once again at odds over the size of a coronavirus stimulus package

The US recorded 122K new cases of Covid-19 yesterdyeay, according to a Johns Hopkins University tally, the highest single-day increase to date & taking the national total to 9.6M.  New deaths totaled 1210, bringing the total to 235K.  Wed was the first time nationwide new cases have topped 100K on a single day, & pushed the 7-day average of daily new infections to a record 90K.  Countries around the world are battling against resurging outbreaks as winter temperatures set in & pandemic-fatigued people move indoors.

Coronavirus updates: U.S. reports 121,888 new cases

The Dow finished up 1800+ this week, following a tough time in Oct.  The battle for the White House continues, adding to investor anxiety.  Even more disturbing is the fight against the virus which is not making progress in the short run.  However a lot of work has been done on vaccines & some approvals should be coming in the near future.  Additionally, the US economic recovery is strong (much better than the European countries) although the service sector still has major challenges.   

Dow Jones Industrials








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