Markets recover some of last week's losses

Dow advanced 423, advancer over decliners about 3-1 & NAZ went up 46.  The MPL index fluctuated in the 111s & the REIT index shot up 6+ to the 342s.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries had modest buying.  Oil rose 1+ to 37 after European lockdowns & gold gained 15 to 1895 (more on both below).

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UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson defended his gov's decision to impose a 2nd lockdown in England, saying there was “no alternative” but to take further action.  On Sat, Johnson announced England would go into a one-month lockdown lasting from Nov 5 until Dec 2.  Under the new restrictions, people will be ordered to stay at home unless it's for essential purposes, including education, medical reasons, or to shop for groceries.  Pubs, bars & restaurants must close except for takeout & delivery.  Some industries where working from home isn't possible — like construction & manufacturing — will be allowed to continue operating.  The restrictions only apply to England; Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland enforce their own rules.  Speaking in Parliament today, Johnson said: “The modeling presented by our scientists suggests that without action we could see up to twice as many deaths over the winter as we saw in the first wave. Faced with these latest figures, there is no alternative but to take further action at a national level.”  The UK recently passed 1M confirmed cases, with deaths rising to 47K according to data from Johns Hopkins University.  It reported a record 27K infections on Oct 21, however the number of deaths is far from where it was during the peak of the outbreak in Apr.

Boris Johnson says there’s ‘no alternative’ as England braces for lockdown

Americans have shown they are eager to shop, even during a recession & global health crisis, the National Retail Federation's (NRF) chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said.  That could be a promising sign for retailers banking on holiday sales, he said.  “Strong growth in retail sales during the last few months points to the resiliency of consumers even in this disruptive pandemic environment,” Kleinhenz said in the issue of the trade group's Monthly Economic Review.  “Taking in all the evidence available, the U.S. economic recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected.”  Retail, the biggest driver of the US economy, has bounced back in recent months — even as Ms of Americans are out of work & cases of Covid-19 rise.  Retail sales rose 1.9% in Sep, higher than espected.  Clothes & accessories jumped by 11%, while sporting goods, music & books grew 5.7%.  Kleinhenz said the retail industry is still threatened by the increasing number of Covid-19 cases.  There were 81K confirmed infections reported yesterday, according to Johns Hopkins University.  The 7-day average is 81K, an all-time high that's up more than 18% compared with a week ago.  He said additional gov stimulus is needed to make sure retail's recovery continues.  “While there might be sufficient momentum and resiliency to propel the economy in the months ahead, additional fiscal policy support is critical to ensure that the recovery doesn’t stall,” he added.  Despite the appetite for shopping, the trade group said it expects consumers to spend slightly less this year.  Shoppers said they planned to spend an average of $998 on gifts, holiday items like food & decorations, & additional spending on themselves & their families this year, according to a survey of 7660 consumers conducted in early Oct.  That's a nearly $50 drop from last year.  Most of that expected drop comes from people who plan to buy less for themselves, despite holiday deals at stores & on retailer's websites, the NRF found.

Americans show they’re eager to shop even as pandemic stretches on, retail economist says

Gold futures climbed again to post back-to-back session gains.  Dec gold rose $12 (0.7%) to settle at $1892 an ounce.

Gold futures post a second straight gain

Oil futures moved higher to register their first gain in 4 sessions.  Domestic crude oil prices rebounded in the PM after sinking another more than 2.5% in the AM.  At session lows, prices fell below $35 per barrel & hit its lowest level since May, as the additional restrictions in Europe raised concerns over even weaker demand for travel & fuel.  Dual concerns of a supply glut also came as crude oil production in Libya rose further to close in at the 1M barrel per-day rate.  Dec West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.02 (2.9%) to settle at $36.81 a barrel.

Oil futures settle higher for the first time in 4 sessions

As the US enters the 8th month of the coronavirus pandemic, many Americans are left wondering where her next meal will come from.  Last week, about 22M collected unemployment benefits of some kind.  Food insecurity has more than doubled as a result of the Covid-19-induced economic crisis & affects almost a ¼ of all US households.  If Congress fails to pass another coronavirus stimulus deal, an estimated 5M people will exhaust all of their unemployment benefits next month, according to Dem House Speaker Nancy Pelosi last week.  Ms more gig & part-time workers will lose their benefits altogether at the end of the year when the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program expires.  Plus, utility & student loan bills that were deferred are all coming due soon, just as the nationwide eviction moratorium is set to expire.  The Senate, House of Representatives & White House have all given different timelines for a relief package.  The Senate is currently recessed until after the election after confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.  Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said last week that the chamber will handle relief “right at the beginning of the year,” with legislation targeted toward helping struggling small businesses & hospitals.  Pelosi has said she wants a deal sooner, but negotiations between House Dems & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin have hit wall after wall, with both sides refusing to budge on their pet stimulus issues.  Pres Trump, meanwhile, told reporters last week that “we will have a tremendous stimulus package immediately after the election.”

Americans are outraged that Congress has yet to pass another stimulus deal

Markets were unsettled.  Besides the election tomorrow, the FOMC has its meeting on Wed & more earnings are coming.  For the time being,the virus is getting much of traders' attention.  Many states are struggling on how to get a better handle on controlling Covid & how to manage reopening their economies.

Dow Jones Industrials