Monday, November 30, 2020

Markets retreat after the November rally for stocks

Dow dropped 326, decliners over advancers about 3-1 & NAZ lost 89.  The MLP index pulled back 2+ to the 137s & the REIT index was off 3+ to the 366s.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries were up slightly.  Oil was lower, above 45, & gold remained under pressure, falling 12 to 1776

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)








CL=FCrude Oil45.21  
-0.32-0.0%







GC=FGold   1,777.10
-11.00 -0.2%






 




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Moderna (MRNA) said it will request an Emergency Use Authorization from the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) for its coronavirus vaccine as well as conditional approval from the European Medicines Agency.  CEO Stephane Bancel said that the FDA is expected to consider the vaccine at a Dec 17 meeting, & that he hopes for approval in the next several weeks.  "Our goal is to start vaccinating Americans within 24 hours after the FDA gives approval," Bancel said.  "There were 30 severe cases in the study. All 30 were on placebo."  "I believe in the first quarter [of 2021] most people that want a vaccine, that are at higher risk with older age, severe disease, health care worker, frontline worker, should be able to get vaccinated. Second quarter, every American older than 18 years of age should be able to get vaccinated," Bancel continued.  MRNA said its vaccine's efficacy against coronavirus was 94.1% & efficacy against severe coronavirus was 100%, according to primary efficacy analysis involving 30K participants.  Bancel said the company expects to start a clinical study on teenagers in the next week.  "I hope to have that data by the end of the spring ... so they can go back to school next September," he added.  The Phase 3 study of the vaccine has “exceeded” the minimum 2-months of post-vaccination follow-up as required by the FDA, MRNA said.  The vaccine has presented “no serious safety concerns identified to date,” & the “most common" adverse reactions are injection site pain, fatigue, myalgia, arthralgia, headache & redness at the injection site, the company said.  The stock climbed 20.66 (16%).
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club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MRNA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Moderna to request emergency authorization of coronavirus vaccine

Strong, pandemic-induced demand for housing is still there, but buyers may now be hitting an affordability wall.  Pending home sales fell 1.1% month-to-month in Oct but were 20.2% higher compared with Oct 2019.  This reading is a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, so it is a future indicator of closed sales.  It is also, therefore, a more recent read on buyer activity because it represents people out shopping during the month & making purchase decisions.  The forecast called for a small monthly gain.  “The housing market is still hot, but we may be starting to see rising home prices hurting affordability,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.  Mortgage rates hovered near historic lows during the month, but the supply of homes for sale also hit another historic low.  The number of homes for sale at the end of Oct was down nearly 20% annually & represented just a 2.7-month supply at the current sales pace.  A 6-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyer & seller.  The growing imbalance has prompted bidding wars & caused the median price of an existing home to jump to the highest level ever in Oct.  At $313K, it was up 16% annually.  Supply is especially lean on the low end of the market.  “The combination of these factors – scarce housing and low rates – plus very strong demand has pushed home prices to levels that are making it difficult to save for a down payment, particularly among first-time buyers, who don’t have the luxury of using housing equity from a sale to use as a down payment,” said Yun.

October pending home sales fall, as high prices take their toll on buyers

China's factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than 3 years in Nov, keeping it on track to be the first major economy to fully recover from the coronavirus crisis.  The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) rose to 52.1 in Nov from 51.4 in Oct, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.  It was the highest PMI reading since Sep 2017 & remained above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.  The forecast called of it to climb slightly to 51.5.  China's vast industrial sector is steadily returning to the levels of activity seen before the pandemic & tough containment measures paralysed huge swathes of the economy early this year.  But surging infections & fresh lockdowns in many of its key trading partners could dent demand for Chinese exports, which have been surprisingly resilient so far.  The official PMI, which largely focuses on big- & state-owned firms, showed the sub-index for new export orders stood at 51.5 in Nov, improving further from 51.0 a month earlier.  Economic indicators ranging from trade to producer prices all suggest a further pick up in the industrial sector.  A sub-index for the activity of small firms stood at 50.1 in Nov, up from Oct's 49.4.  A strong Nov e-commerce shopping festival in China unleashed strong consumer demand, bolstering confidence for small & medium firms.  China has seen a robust rebound in vehicle sales, fuelled by surging demand for trucks & electric vehicles.  In the services sector, activity expanded for the 9th straight month & at the fastest pace since 2012, as consumer confidence further improves amid few COVID infections.  Railway & air transportation, telecommunication & satellite transmission service & the financial industry are among the best performing sectors in Nov.  A sub-index for construction activity stood at 60.5 in Nov, improving from 59.8 in Oct.

Chinese factory activity on the rise, expanded at fastest pace in more than 3 years: report

There is more good news on the vaccine front, but that did not stimulate stock buyers. Some of the decline could be due to profit taking.  However, the Dow is up an astounding 3K in Nov, one of its best months in history.  Gold was also hit with selling today.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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