Dow declined 219, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ lost 49. The MLP index was off 1+ to the 135s & the REIT index fell 2+ to the 369s. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries continued in demand. Oil went above 42 & gold added 10 to 1872 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The US reported 188K new Covid-19 cases yesterday, yet another record-breaking daily total as US health officials urge Americans to stay home for Thanksgiving & states impose tighter restrictions to slow the persistent spread of the virus. “We’re alarmed,” Dr Henry Walke, the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention’s Covid-19 incident manager, said where the agency urged people not to travel over Thanksgiving. “One of our concerns is that as people over the holiday season get together, they may actually be bringing infections with them to that small gathering and not even know it,” he added. The US first crossed 100K new Covid-19 cases on the Nov 3 & infections have continued to climb to all-time highs ever since. The nation has reported a weekly average of 165K new cases every day, a record-breaking streak that's lasted for 24 consecutive days, according to Johns Hopkins University. Unlike other peaks in the spring & summer that hit the Northeast & Sunbelt states, infectious disease experts have said the latest surge has no clear epicenter. Some state & city officials have warned that there's so much spread, local outbreaks cannot be traced back to a single event or venue. “I believe this is the most serious public health moment we’ve experienced since 1918 and the swine flu,” Dr Michael Osterholm, a coronavirus advisor to Pres-elect Joe Biden, said. “We realize that we have a very dangerous period for the next two weeks that we’re going to have to respond to. We’re already watching our hospitals being overrun,” Osterholm continued.
U.S. reports record 187,833 new Covid cases as CDC warns against holiday travel
JPMorgan economists now see an economic contraction in Q1 due to the spreading coronavirus & related restrictions being imposed by states & cities. The new forecast is a departure from the widely held view that Q1 would be positive, with an improving economy throughout 2021. The economists said they expect the economy to expand briskly in the 2nd & 3rd quarter, based on positive vaccine developments. “This winter will be grim, and we believe the economy will contract again in 1Q,” they wrote. They projected that Q1 will contract by 1% after growth of 2.8% in Q4. For the 2nd qtr, they see the economy rallying & growth of 4.5% followed by a robust 6.5% in Q3. They also expect $1T of fiscal stimulus, likely beginning near the end of Q1 which should help boost midyear growth. “One thing that is unlikely to change between 2020 and 2021 is that the virus will continue to dominate the economic outlook. ... Case counts in the latest wave are easily surpassing the March and July waves,” the economists wrote. They noted that the economy was helped thru the Jul outbreak by the economic reopenings. “The economy no longer has that tailwind; instead it now faces the headwind of increasing restrictions on activity. The holiday season — from Thanksgiving through New Year’s — threatens a further increase in cases,” they added. The economists also expect to see monthly declines in employment at different points over the next few months, but monthly job gains should be back in the Ms around the middle of the year & then moderate again late in 2021. “We think the trends in the labor market should roughly follow what we expect for consumer spending — job growth should weaken noticeably around the turn of the year as the virus weighs on the economy, and then pick up again early next year once vaccine distribution eases virus concerns and fiscal support boosts growth,” they wrote.
JPMorgan becomes first major bank to say first-quarter GDP will decline because of Covid surge
Gold futures tallied their first gain in 4 sessions, but posted a 2nd straight weekly decline, as momentum in bullion buying has ebbed considerably, despite an environment of rising cases of COVID-19 & tightening social restrictions. Gold bulls say that fresh prospects for coronavirus relief may be offering some renewed support for buying precious metals. Yesterday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had agreed to restart negotiations over a new coronavirus aid relief package. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin also said he is preparing to reach out to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. For months, Reps & Dems were disputing the size & scope of a potential aid bill. It isn't clear if discussions will restart in earnest, but commodity investors may find the recent reports sufficient reason to buy gold on the expectation that more funds could be expended by govs to limit the economic harm from the spread of the deadly pathogen. Against that backdrop, Dec gold gained $10 (0.6%) to settle at $1872 an ounce, snapping a 3-session slide. Precious metals have been facing some headwinds, lately, as news on successful therapies & potential cures have served to undercut appetite for gold.
Gold ends higher after a 3-session skid, but posts a 2nd weekly slide in a row
Oil futures rose,
prompting US prices to post a gain of 5% for the week. Promising
developments on potential COVID-19 vaccines, which would help ease
economic restrictions & the loss of energy that may go with it, have
provided support for prices. On its expiration day, Dec West Texas
Intermediate crude rose 41¢ (1%) to settle at $42.15 a barrel. Jan,
which is the new front-month contract, settled at $42.42 a barrel, up 52¢ (1.2%).
Oil futures end higher for the session and week
Dow Jones Industrials
No comments:
Post a Comment