Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Markets jump even with election uncertainty

Dow soared 559, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ surged 415.  The MLP index added 1+  to the 114s & the REIT index continued advancing, up 2+ to the 351s.  Junk bond funds were bid higher & Treasuries crawled up in price.  Oil rebounded, going over 38, & gold was off 11 to 1899.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil38.30
+0.64+1.7%






























GC=FGold   1,904.40 

-6.00 
-0.3%






















 




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Private employers hired at a slower-than-expected pace in Oct, indicating the labor market's recovery from the coronavirus crisis is cooling, according to the ADP National Employment Report.  The report showed that companies created 365K new jobs last month, sharply missing the 650K-job increase that was expected.  “The labor market continues to add jobs, yet at a slower pace,” Ahu Yildirmaz, VP & cohead of the ADP Research Institute, said.  “Although the pace is slower, we’ve seen employment gains across all industries and sizes.”  Sep hiring was spread across most industries, with the biggest gains taking place in leisure & hospitality, one of the hardest-hit sectors by the pandemic.  The sector added 125K jobs.  Education & health services added 79K jobs, while professional & business services added 60K.  Trade, transportation & utilities saw an increase of 53K.  Medium businesses led industries by size with the addition of 135K jobs last month at firms that employ 50-499 workers.  Large businesses added 116K jobs & small businesses added 114K employees.  While the data is typically a good indicator of what to expect in the more closely watched jobs report from the Labor Dept, the ADP figure has regularly missed the gov''s count since the pandemic began in mid-Mar.  In Jun, for instance, ADP initially said private employers added 2.37M jobs -- well below the 4.8M reported by the gov.  It also said the economy lost 2.7M jobs in May, while the Labor Dept reported a gain of 2.5M.  The Labor Dept's jobs report is predicted to show the US economy added 600K jobs last month, down slightly from  Sep's gain of 661K.  The forecast calls  for unemployment to edge lower to 7.6% from 7.9%.

October job growth far below economist expectations: ADP report

White House economic adviser Larry Kidlow rejected the notion of another economic shutdown in the US to curb a spike in coronavirus infections.  "We did what we did last winter; we're at a different place today," Kudlow said.  "We have vastly better equipment, much more knowledge and experience, we know how to do targeting, so far as any community spread. Closing down the economy is a bad idea."  His comments came as large swaths of Europe implement new lockdown measures.  Germany entered a partial shutdown on Mon, & Britain & Austria will follow later this week, shuttering restaurants, bars & halting many leisure activities.  Italy, Greece & Kosovo also announced new measures.  In some places, the new rules — which vary in strictness — are prompting violent protests by people frustrated at once again having to forego freedoms.  But certain places in the US that have seen a flare-up in COVID-19 infections are also closing down parts of their economies, including Illinois, which banned indoor dining; Denver, Colo, which tightened its restaurant & social gathering restrictions; & El Paso, Texas, which announced a 2-week shutdown of nonessential services beginning tomorrow.  "You've got to keep the economy open," Kudlow said.  "You have to do it safely with masking and distancing and good hygiene and testing and be careful in close quarters."  He added: "Let me emphasize this: Safety first, yes. Closing down? That will make the cure worse than the problem ... I think most Americans completely agree."

Kudlow says another economic shutdown 'won't work' despite coronavirus spike

In a major speech, Chinese Pres Xi Jinping talked up his country's plans for playing a greater role in global trade, without mentioning ongoing tensions with the US.  “We will work for the early signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and speed up negotiations of the China-EU investment treaty, and the China-Japan-ROK free trade agreement,” Xi said.  The Chinese leader was speaking via video at the opening ceremony of the 3rd China Intl Import Expo, about 12 hours after US presidential election polls closed.  Xi did not specifically mention the US, with whom China has been locked in trade tensions for more than 2 years.  RCEP is set to be the world's largest trade agreement, if 15 Asia-Pacific countries sign the deal later this year, as expected.  The EU & China have been working on their own investment agreement, but slow progress on the negotiations so far have dimmed hopes of a deal by the end of the year.  Talks between Beijing & US allies Japan & South Korea have also been drawn out.  Xi ran through a list of ways in which China would open its market further to foreign businesses & improve the local operating environment.  The initiatives, which have mostly already been announced before, ranged from improving intellectual property protection to reducing restrictions on imports of technology.  “Our aim is to turn the China market into a market for the world, a market shared by all, and a market accessible to all,” Xi said.  He added that China will take an active role in the reform of the World Trade Organization & cooperation with the United Nations, G-20, & other intl organizations.  He called for countries & companies to work together in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

China’s Xi says country will speed up trade talks with EU, Japan and South Korea

Stocks are sharply higher after the election which has decided very little.  Final results in a number of races, including the presidential one, could drag on for some time.  The sharp advance for tech stocks on NAZ came from hopes for improvement in their environment as looming regulation is around the corner.  In the PM when the Fed speaks, investors will listen.

Dow Jones Industrials

   
 
 





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