Sunday, July 26, 2009

Dow blasts through the 9000 ceiling

The last year has been a time of record losses in the markets followed by record recoveries. Last week Dow finally broke thru the 9K ceiling, closing at 9093 on Fri. But gains in the recovery were not evenly spread around. NAZDAQ has risen an impressive 25 YTD while Dow is up less than 4%. Pursuit of risk has been a strong motivating factor for stock buyers in 2009. High yield securities were also discovered by those wanting to lock onto high yields.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 1 year




NASDAQ --- 1 year





Leading this year's gains in the high yield sectors have been the MLPs & junk bond funds. MLPs have risen an astounding 40% YTD (plus another 4% when distributions are included). Many junk bond funds are up 50+% YTD after reinvested divs are included. However, REIT's have lagged behind. Their recovery in recent months has still left them down 10% YTD as div cuts & a growing understanding about rising vacancy rates has not been lost in the markets.


AlerianMLP Index --- 1 year




Barclays Cap High Yld Bond ETF - 1 year




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 1 year




Enthusiasm may have gotten the better of the markets in their recovery. Dreary economic numbers keep coming. The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond has shot up from the low 2% area at the start of the year to 3¾%, & may go higher with record levels of borrowings next week. In addition, The S&P Financial Index which I track every day has not been able to take out its 175 high reached 10 weeks ago, needing another 9 points. Banks were the market leaders during the first leg up in the recovery but have not been in the last 2 months. Let market buyers beware!

10-Year Treasury Yield Index




S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

1 comment:

share trader said...

It's not just dow blasting through the 9,000 ceiling, even though US equities are they main driver, but stock markets across the world push higher for the last two weeks and particularly FTSE 100 recorded 12 consecutive sessions for the first time in its history.