Thursday, July 9, 2009

Markets meander more

Dow rose all of 4, with only 13 winners. IBM (IBM) was the one big gainer (up 1+) & Merck (MRK) was the big loser (down 1+). Advancers over decliners almost 2-1 & NAZ rose 5. Financials did well, probably in response to an oversold market for financials. In today's rally mode, Citigroup (C) was up 7¢ to 2.69 as it reported more management changes.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
151.26
Change
2.02
% Change
1.4%

Value for S5FINL:IND




On an otherwise quiet day, MLPs charged forward, up 3.72 to the 224s, with eyes on the 230 highs reached a month ago. Next week, MLPs will report the first earnings & guidance reports. Given the state of the sluggish economy, there will probably not be too many qtr over qtr distribution increases. The REIT index fell 1+ while junk bonds firmed. The VIX fell1½, dropping into the 29s. Treasuries sold off badly after concluding record auctions over the last 3 weeks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury shot up 12 basis points to 3.41%.


Alerian MLP Index --- 1 month




10-Year Treasury Yield index - 2 weeks




Oil feeling is more comfortable at 60, that may be important line in the sand going forward.

CLQ09.NYMCrude Oil Aug 0960.35 3:20pm ETUp 0.21 (0.35%)


Treasuries fell sharply (raising their yields) after concluding the 4th auction in this week. Demand for the 30 year bonds was good but not great, as the bid-to-cover ratio was 2.36X down from 2.68X in June & compares with an average pf 2.28X at the past 10 sales. This week, the Treasury held a record breaking 4 auctions to sell $73B in debt. The 30-year bond yield rose 10 basis points to 4.30% after falling 15 basis points yesterday. At auction the bonds yielded 4.303%, higher than the 4.292% average forecast. Indirect bidders, including foreign central banks, purchased 50.2%, the most in 3 years. At the Jun sale, they bought 49% & have averaged 29% for the past 10 sales. The Treasury will return to sell more bonds in 3 weeks, giving the markets a chance to recover & maybe rise (assuming no new spending packages are approved.

Treasuries Decline as Demand Drops at $11 Billion Bond Auction


General Motors is getting ready emerge from bankruptcy, but this will only be a first step towards solving their massive problems. Dow is remains in the trenches at the low end of a 2 month range:

Dow Jones Industrials --- 3 months

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