Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Dow's 7 day winning streak ends

Markets were stumbling along looking for direction all day, but found none. Dow slipped 34 (ending its streak of daily gains), advancers 25% ahead of decliners & NAZ was up 10. Half the Dow stocks were higher. Banks also stayed near break even all day, but they remain at the high end of the sideways trading band for the last 3 months.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
163.18
Change
-0.24
% Change
-0.1%


Value for S5FINL:IND




MLPs remain hot as more investors are attracted by high yields to embrace riskier investments. The Alerian MLP Index rose .79 to the 241s, another 2009 high. The index yield has dropped to 8½% after its run up, narrowing the spread over the 10 year Treasury yield to 500 basis points, still high but less tempting than in the recent past. The Dow Jones REIT Index was up pennies & junk bonds were mixed. The VIX at 23½ reached another 2009 low. Meanwhile, the 10 year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points to 3.55%.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Oil inched up in the the PM, cutting its losses.

CLU09.NYM..Crude Oil Sep 09..65.40 ..Down 0.21
......(0.3%)



Non performing loans, loans that aren't paying interest, is a growing problem for banks. Wells Fargo (WFC), Sun Trust (STI), Key Corp (KEY) & US Bancorp (USB) have had to increase their provisions for future loan losses & that problem looks like it will get worse in the coming months.

Wells Fargo, SunTrust Lead US Banks in Boosting Loan Reserves


General Motors sold 1.9M vehicles worldwide in Q2, despite a 32% decline in North America. Auto sales in China were up 62% in Q2. The company sold more than 450K vehicles in China just a little short of the 538K depressed sales in the US. GM said the Asia-Pacific growth led to 72% of its global sales for the qtr coming from outside the North American market, far higher than the normal percentage of 65%. Over time overseas sales are expected to drop back to the 60-65% range. The bright spot in GM's global sales, was that they were up 20% over Q1, a sign that the company is recovering from its 40-day stay in bankruptcy protection & from the global economic downturn. GM says its global market share was 12%, down only slightly from the year-ago qtr despite the bankruptcy filing. GM sold 3.6M vehicles in H1, down 22% from the prior year. Early indications are that the new GM will be able to survive.

This 2 week chart shows a spectacular run, one of the best in history. This market is overbought, perhaps the bulls need time to catch their breaths.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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