Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Markets fall from lower consumer confidence

Stocks are resting after their recent rally. Dow gained 1K in a couple of weeks, it needs time to rest. Dow fell 42, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ was down 7. Banks are also resting after working their way up to the high end of their 3 month trading range:

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
168.73
Change
-1.21
% Change
-o.7%


MLPs pulled back 2 to the 248s, they're entitled. REITs also fell but junk bonds were mixed with yields around a moderate 13%. The 10 year Treasury bond yield dropped 4 basis points to 3.67% ahead of today's Treasury auction.


Alerian MLP Index --- 1 month





Oil is also settling back with the stock markets.

CLU09.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 09...66.79 ...Down 1.59
.......(2.3%)



Americans' confidence dropped again in Jul. Job security worries offset enthusiasm about the stock market rally helping bolster retirement accounts. The Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 46.6 in Jul from 49.3 in Jun (after a decline in Jun). Economists were expecting a reading of 49 (a reading above 90 signals the economy is on solid footing). Shoppers are looking past surging stock prices & a stabilizing housing market. Instead they remain nervous about their own financial security from mounting job losses (yesterday Verizon announced 8K job cuts). Consumers pessimism about income expectations does not bode well for spending in the coming months. Early indications for the important "back-to-school" season should be available next week.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls More Than Forecast Amid Rising Joblessness


Home prices were up a little last month & sales were also higher last month. However, the problem is they're coming off low bases. Sales remain down 70% or so from the good old days, small ticks up aren't going to make a big difference.


US Steel (X), the largest US steel company, reported a 392M loss in Q2. The loss was less than in Q1, but it shows demand for steel is weak around the globe. They are forecasting a loss for Q3. The stock fell 1 to 40.

US Steel --- 1 year





The markets are quiet again, but lower. They've lost their positive edge in recent weeks. The consumer confidence report signals more dreary days ahead for this recession. US Steel, a major supplier to economies around the world, tells us that the recession will not have a speedy recovery. Treasury auctions this week will be another negative influence for stocks.,

Dow Jones Industrials --- 1 month

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