Friday, July 24, 2009

Profit taking day for stocks

Markets have gone into a pause mode. Dow dropped 25, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ was down a big 23 related to Microsoft (MSFT) earnings reported last night. MSFT was off 2½ on its earnings decline from lower PC sales. Profit taking is also taking banks lower. However the index is still in the upper reaches of its 3 month trading range.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
165.78
Change
-2.24
% Change
-1.3%


MLPs remain hot. The Alerian MLP Index shot ahead another 1½ to the 244s, a new 2009 high. So far, MLPs have gotten thru the earnings season with no damage from earnings reports. The Dow Jones REIT Index dropped 2, muddling along in its sideways trading pattern. Junk bonds were mixed & Treasuries rose, the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond dropped 4 basis points to 3.67%. Oil was down pennies on this quiet day of trading.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




California is still standing because they passed legislation late last night (at least most of what was necessary) to close the huge budget deficit. Now we'll have to see how this mess plays in the real world.

California Senate Approves $26 Billion Deficit Plan; Assembly Still Voting


CIT is under extreme pressure as it struggles to stay alive. Their tender offer for the $1B in notes due next month has been revised, creating an incentive for bondholders to redeem their bonds sooner (by the end of July). If they don't get 90% acceptance, CIT may have to file for Chapter 11.

CIT Reworks Its Tender Bid for Notes to Punish Late Exchange by Investors


The chart below is as pretty a one as they come. Investors have been eager to accept risk to pursue future profits. On the margin, their appetite for high yield securities seems unlimited. MLPs & junk bond funds are having their best year in history while REITs (a similar kind of security) have been lumbering along during the big rally in recent months. The lagging REITs are related to all those "for rent" signs I see, not to mention div cuts this year.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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