Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Markets drift lower

Stocks can't decide what to do. With a lack of direction, they are selling off. Dow fell 61, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ was off 14. Bank stocks are also slipping.


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
168.91
Change
-0.40
% Change
-0.2%


MLPs ran into selling. The Alerian MLP Index dropped 8+ to the 240s (& off the 250 high on Mon). A daily point change greater than 5 is significant for MLPs, but after their run this type of reaction should be expected. REITs slipped while high yield (junk) bonds continue on a tear, up again today. The chart for the Barclay High Yield Capital Bond ETF understates results for many individual junk bond funds. High bond default rates are not being factored in when pursuing high yields. Ahead of today's note auction, the Treasury 10 year bond rose, bringing the yield down 5 basis points to 3.64%.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Barclays Capital Hi Yld Bond ETF - YTD





Oil slumped on worries about lower demand for oil & a 5.2M barrel surge in US oil supplies last week.

CLU09.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 09...65.12 ...Down 2.11
.......(3.1%)



The Shanghai Composite Index suffered the biggest decline in 8 months on speculation the gov will curb inflows into the stock market. Their index dropped 5%after reaching the highest levels since Jan 2008. Their index dropped almost 75% from over 6K during the bear market & since then has more than doubled from 1½K to 3¼K. Driving stocks lower was speculation the central bank could rein in liquidity. The Hang Seng (Hong Kong) market tumbled 2.4% after a similar run up this year.

Other markets in the Asia region (& around the world) have had similar gains off depressed levels earlier this year. The Australia market had a 12 day winning streak broken last night. However European markets weren't bothered by the China news, they rose today.

China Stocks Plunge Most in Eight Months on Tightening Concern


BP Plc, Europe’s 2nd biggest oil company, reported profits fell 53% on lower energy prices & said there is little evidence of a recovery in demand. Royal Dutch Shell, its larger rival, as well as other major European oil companies will report this week. Analysts expect Shell to report earnings fell 69%. US majors, Exxon Mobil (XOM) & Chevron (CVX), Dow stocks, are expected to report similar significant profit declines from lower oil prices.

BP Says ‘Little Evidence’ of Oil Demand Recovery as Net Falls


Time Warner (TWC) reported lower Q2 profits but reaffirmed its guidance of roughly $2 EPS for 2009 (similar to last year). The stock dropped 1.05.

Stocks are looking for direction. This week, Dow has barely budged after its 1K gain in 2 weeks.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks

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