Wednesday, July 1, 2009

New qtr begins with gains

Dow rose 116, advancers ahead of decliners almost 5-1 & NAZ was up 20, all done in light trading. Banks joined the party, but are not leading the way up.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
161.77
Change
1.01
% Change
0.6%


The Alerian MLP Index & Dow Jones REIT Index are each up 1+ while junk bond funds are generally higher. Rising stocks are bringing lower bond prices, the yield on the 10 year Treasury climbed 7 basis points to 3.59%. High yield securities are benefiting from easing fears. The VIX, volatility or fear index, reached another 2009 low, back to the levels before Lehman's collapse.


Alerian MLP index --- 3 months




VIX ---- 2 weeks




Oil is pushing for new highs above 72.

CLQ09.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 09...71.04 ...Up 1.15
.......(1.7%)



The housing news while mushy is basically negative. Mortgage applications dropped to another interim low while pending home sales were up. Unfortunately the increase was only 0.1%, essentially even. Mortgages rates continue low, in the low 5% area but depressed conditions for housing are not going away soon.


U.S. manufacturing activity contracted less than expected in Jun & at the slowest pace since Aug. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index read 44.8 in Jun, up from 42.8 in May. However, a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This was the 17th straight month of deterioration in manufacturing.

Manufacturing in U.S. Shrinks at Slower Pace in Sign Recession Is Easing


Dow had a great qtr as did the other indices. But the chart shows that it had a strong month in Apr followed by sideways trading. California (the 8th largest economy in the world) is in the midst of budget chaos. As a result, they are going to pay debts with IOUs. Can you spell, "Duh?"

Dow Jones Industrials --- 3 months

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