World markets lower on dismal outlook for profits

Dow fell 25, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ was down 20, but off their lows. Banks were also lower.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 153.18

Change -0.37

% Change -0.2%

The high yield sector was hurt by the market decline. MLPs & junk bond funds were lower, while REITs inched up. MLPs may be feeling extra pain because of the sell off in oil. The yield on the 10 year Treasury is resting today, only up 3 basis points to 3.53%. The VIX, volatility index, is up a big 2½ going back over 30 on rising fears.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 months




Dow Jones REIT Index -- 2 months




VIX ---- 2 months




This has been a bad day for markets, stocks & commodities, with a growing awareness that the recovery may be a long drawn out affair.

CLQ09.NYM

...Crude Oil Aug 09

...64.26

... 1.37 .......(2.1%)

Bears are trying to take control. Even if economies have reached bottom, they may not come roaring back as the bulls suggest. The profit declines for the S&P 500 (complied by S&P & Bloomberg) give guidance that more ugly days lie ahead as shown below for the S&P 500 (Q2 & Q3 are estimates).

____profit decline
Q1.... -60%
Q2.... -34%
Q3.... -21%

Q4 could show gains, but that would be off an awful Q4 in 2008, hardly something to brag about.

•Earnings Dropped Worldwide in Second Quarter as Job Losses Hurt Consumers


The US markets are following a global decline in markets, but are behaving better. Stocks have been firmer in the last hour, maybe the PM will bring more buyers.

Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 months