Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Dow adds to yesterday's record close

Dow went up 32, advancers ahead of decliners 5-4 & NAZ lost 4.  The Financial Index was up a fraction to the 242s.  The MLP index retreated 2+ to the 431s & the REIT index lost 1+ to the 283s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries sold off.  Oil was down fractionally & gold was flat.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.099%

U.S. 2-year

0.244%

U.S. 10-year

1.926%

CLJ13.NYMCrude Oil Apr 1390.52 Down 0.30 (0.3%)

GCH13.CMXGold Mar 131,569.70 Down 4.90 (0.3%)










Companies added more workers than projected in Feb.  The 198K increase in employment followed a revised 215K gain the prior month that was more than initially estimated.  The forecast called 170K.  Sustained hiring by businesses, even as DC is sparring over budget reductions, signals there is enough demand to support consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy.  The Labor Dept report on Fri may show private payrolls rose by 167K.  Goods-producing industries, which include manufacturers & construction companies, increased headcount by 34K, employment in construction rose 21K, while factories added 9K jobs.  Payrolls at service providers advanced by 164K, accounting for the bulk of the gain, although many service sector jobs offer low wages.  Companies employing more than 499 workers added 57K jobs. Medium-sized businesses (50-499 employees) took on 65K & small companies increased payrolls by 77K.

ADP Says Companies in U.S. Added 198,000 Workers in February


US orders for machinery & other factory goods that signal business investment surged in Jan, indicating confidence in the economy.  The Commerce Dept said that orders for core capital goods, which also include equipment & computers, rose 7.2% from Dec, the biggest gain in more than a year & higher than the initial estimate the made last week for a 6.3% rise. But total factory orders fell 2%, mostly because of a steep decline in volatile aircraft & defense orders that was also reported last week.  Demand for durable goods, items expected to last at least 3 years, dropped 4.9% & demand for nondurable goods, such as chemicals & paper, rose 0.6%.  More attention is paid to core capital goods because they are a good measure of business investment plans.  The category excludes aircraft & military orders.

Factory Orders in U.S. Fell 2% in January on Defense Cutbacks


Exxon Mobil, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, expects production to decline by about 1% this year due to weaker output of natural gas.  Over the next 5 years, however, it expects production to rise by 2-3% annuallly.  Production fell 6% last year, but the company still earned almost $45B, barely missing its own 2008 record, thanks to higher refining margins.  CEO Rex Tillerson says global energy demand will grow 35% by 2040 with oil & gas accounting for more than coal, nuclear or other sources.  The stock slipped 20¢.

Exxon Mobil predicts lower production this year AP

Exxon Mobil (XOM)


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Dow is taking a breather after yesterday's big pop.  But it wasn't all that impressive & today's wavering markets indicate that the bulls don't have complete command.  MLPs & REITs have been very strong but they are seeing profit taking when there should be buying.  The budget mess in DC (largely closed today because of a snow storm) drones on.  It looks like they will pass legislation to keep the gov running past Mar 27, so the big guys will keep getting paid.  But the enormous problem of budget cuts remains with no solutions in sight,  In addition federal spending reductions this month have to hurt the economy.   I was surprised to see the Dow reach a new record without strong fundamentals behind that rally.  Maybe bears will get more aggressive.

Dow Jones Industrials

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