Thursday, March 28, 2013

Dow and S&P 500 close Q1 at record highs

Dow was up 51 (closing near its high), advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ added 11.  The Financial Index gained a fraction to 245.  The Alerian MLP index surged 4+ to a new record over 454 (up 69 in Q1) & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 286s (up 20 in Q1).  Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & Treasuries closed the qtr about even.  Oil is pushing towards $100 while gold fell, capping the longest run of quarterly declines since 2001, as banks in Cyprus reopened, easing concern that Europe’s debt crisis will worsen & curbing demand for haven assets.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.074%

U.S. 2-year

0.244%

U.S. 10-year

1.850%

CLK13.NYM...Crude Oil May 13....97.20 Up ...0.62 (0.6%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




The pres will release his federal budget outline on Apr 10, 2 months late.  Under the law, the pres was supposed to submit a budget on Feb 4, but aides said deliberations over spending in the past few months delayed the release of Obama's blueprint.  Huh??  What happened to late is late?  Many of the proposals contained in last year’s $3.8T administration budget, never adopted by Congress, are likely to be recycled.  With automatic budget cuts in place, the White House may be forced to look for savings to pay for increases in its priorities, such as education, clean-energy research & an initial $50B in new spending on public works like improved roads & bridges.  The Rep controlled House & Dem controlled Senate have passed rival budgets in the past week.  The Senate budget embraces nearly $1T in tax increases over the coming decade & shelters the domestic programs House Reps want to cut.  The GOP version would balance the budget over the next decade without raising taxes. 

Obama Will Send Fiscal 2014 Budget to Congress April 10


EBay  expects to have marketplace volume of $110B by 2015 as its active user base expands to 200M, aided by emerging markets.  By the end of 2015, 25% of users will be in developing regions.  CEO John Donahoe is adding features, including a local-shopping tool unveiled, to bolster a turnaround effort that has helped boost shares 75% since he took the helm in 2008.  Under Donahoe, EBAY has pushed beyond its auction roots to expand with businesses such as instant sales & mobile payments.  It’s building social features to help users find items for sale in a local neighborhood, part of an effort to fend off competition from Facebook (FB).  “Online commerce will not devour offline retail, but it will transform how we shop,” Donahoe said.  “Smart retailers are innovating. They’re reinventing and reimagining the store and what it means to shop.”  The local retail tracker comes as stores are increasingly turning to social-networking services to promote brands & sell merchandise.  Last year, the homepage was redesigned, adding a feature to show users products based on their personal information & purchasing history.  More of those purchases are happening on mobile devices.  About 25% of users on PayPal (owned by EBAY) service are accessing the product via mobile devices & payment volume for PayPal can double over the next 3 years.  The stock was up $2.15 today.

EBay Expects $110 Billion in Marketplace Volume by 2015

eBay (EBAY)

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Apr gasoline fell as prices dropped below technical support levels.  Futures slipped as refineries returned from maintenance, boosting operating rates last week to a 2-month high.  Gasoline has added 9.3% YTD, the smallest advance in 5 years.  Gasoline demand over the past 4 weeks was 0.2% below a year ago.  The motor fuel has gained 5.4% in Mar.  Futures have fallen 4.6% in Q1 & 2.3% this month.  The more actively traded May contract was $3.0277 a gallon.  Gasoline at the pump averaged nationwide was $3.64, AAA said.  Prices have dropped for the past 8 days & are 26.6¢ below a year ago.  Price last year peaked on Apr 4 & 5 at $3.93.  With crude heading for $100, prices will be climbing next month.

Gasoline Heads for Smallest First-Quarter Advance Since 2008


Q1 closed on an up note as the bears went home early.  MLPs had a record quarterly gain & REITs did well.  Many of the Dividend Aristocrats did well & junk bond funds are near multi year highs.  The message from this performance is "What can go wrong?"  The answer is "plenty."  The euro zone just got by another bank mess.  The US had sluggish growth last qtr & Q1 will be nothing to write home about.  Then there is the fiscal mess in divided DC with no solutions in sight.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury (considered a safe haven investment) is near its LOW for Q1.  Enjoy your holiday weekend,

Dow Jones Industrials

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