Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Higher markets as Federal Reserves continues to buy bonds

Dow went up 55, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ added 25.  The Financial Index rose 2 to the 246s.  The MLP index shot up 5½ (an outstanding gain) to new record in the 437s & the REIT index was up 1 to 282.  Junk bond funds were higher while Treasuries sold off.  Oil rose with the stock market & gold slipped, holding above 1600.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.068%

U.S. 2-year

0.244%

U.S. 10-year

1.938%

CLJ13.NYMCrude Oil Apr 1393.24 Up 1.08 (1.2%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Fed Keeps $85 Billion Pace of Bond Buying as Job Market Improves

Photo:    Bloomberg

The Federal Reserve (FED) foresees unemployment remaining high into 2015, suggesting it will keep short-term interest rates near record lows at least until then.  In its latest economic forecasts, the FED also expects the economy to grow modestly this year & next despite economic gains so far in 2013.  The updated forecasts are nearly identical to projections it made in Dec.  The FED has said it plans to keep its benchmark rate near zero as long as unemployment exceeds 6.5% & the inflation outlook is tame.  Policymakers expect the economy to grow as little as 2.3%, not enough to quickly drive down unemployment, or as high as 2.8%.  In 2014, growth could range from 2.9-3.4% in 2014.  The FED has slightly upgraded its outlook for unemployment.  It now sees the rate falling to 7.3-7.5% by the end of this year, down from a previous range of 7.4-7.7%.  The rate fell to 7.7% in Feb, the lowest in 4 years.  By the end of 2014, the FED expects the rate to fall to 6.7-7.0%, a narrower range than in Dec when it forecast a range of 6.8-7.3%.  The FED will keep up its bond buying at a pace of $85B per month.  No great surprises from the FED today.



Lennar rose to the highest in almost 6 years after reporting a better-than-estimated profit & a 34% jump in orders in the fiscal Q1.  EPS climbed 26¢ from 8¢ a year earlier.  Analysts expected EPS of 15¢.  Home builders are benefiting from revived demand for new homes as the inventory of existing houses for sale shrinks & buyers take advantage of mortgage rates that are close to record lows.  “Housing is recovering and the recovery is consistent, healthy and growing stronger,” CEO Stuart Miller said.  “The recovery is based on strong market fundamentals.”  Total revenue rose 37% from a year earlier to $989.9M as LEN delivered 3186 homes with an average price of $269K, compared with 2482 homes for an average of $246K in Q1 of 2012.  Orders jumped to 4055 homes from 3022 a year earlier.  Gross margins narrowed to 22.1% from 23.5% in the previous qtr because the cost of construction is higher during the winter.  The company expects gross margins to average 23-24% for the fiscal year, CFO Bruce Gross said.  The stock leaped $2.00 to its highest level since 2007.

Lennar Jumps to Highest Since 2007 on Earnings Beat

Lennar (LEN)


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Walgreen, a Dividend Aristocrat, had its biggest 2-day rally in 8 months after AmerisourceBergen (ABC) yesterday agreed to handle its pharmaceutical distribution.  The pact that allows ABC to distribute branded & generic drugs, will reduce costs & boost sales of cancer & other specialty medicines for WAG.  The agreement starts in Sep & will last 10 years.  As a part of the agreement, WAG & Alliance Boots also gained the option to acquire as much as 7% of ABC in the open market, plus warrants for 16% of the shares.  WAG bought a 45% stake last year in Alliance Boots for $6.7B to create a global chain of pharmacies.  WAG has more than 8000 US locations.  WAG closed at $46.05, up from $42½ 2 days ago & ABC closed at $50.20, up $2 in 2 days.

Walgreen Rallies for a Second Day on Drug Pact: Chicago Mover

Walgreen (WAG)

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AmerisourceBergen (ABC)


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Dow recovered some of recent losses, but failed to set a new record.  The announcement from the FED was expected, but nervous traders are always anxious to hear words of support.  Divided DC remains & still is going to have a tough time coming up to solutions to complex financial issues.  The Cyprus bailout is fuzzy as it hopes for Russia to come its aid.  Dow had a good day, but not good enough for a new record.

Dow Jones Industrials

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