Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Dow sets new record

Dow shot up 140, advancers over delciners 4-1 & NAZ added 36.  The Financial Index gained 3+ to 242, a high since the ugly days in 2008. The MLP index rose 1+ to 435, a new record, & the REIT index was up 1+ to the 284s, a new high since the sell-off in late 2008.  Oil climbed from the lowest level this year & gold inched higher.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Tresury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.099%

U.S. 2-year

0.232%

U.S. 10-year

1.861%

CLJ13.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 13...90.38 ...Up 0.26 (0.3%)

GCH13.CMX...Gold Mar 13....1,571.90  ......0.00 (0.0%)









The Institute for Supply Management index for US non-manufacturing businesses (covering about 90% of the economy) rose to 56 in Feb from the prior month reading of 55.2, ahead of the forecast of 73.  Readings above 50 signal expansion, & estimates ranged from 50-56.3.  The ISM services survey covers industries ranging from utilities & retailing to housing, health care & finance.  The figures follow Mar 1 data that showed manufacturing expanded in Feb at the fastest pace since Jun 2011.  The ISM factory index climbed to 54.2 from the Jan 53.1 reading.

ISM Services Gauge in U.S. Rose to 56 in February From 55.2


<p>               A vendor watches the live telecast of the annual government work report by outgoing Premier Wen Jiabao on a television in a vegetable wholesale market in Fuyang in central China's Anhui province Tuesday, March 5, 2013. China's government promised its people Tuesday deficit-fueled spending to fight deep-seated corruption, improve the despoiled environment and address other quality-of-life issues demanded by an increasingly vocal public looking for change.  (AP Photo) CHINA OUT

Photo:   Yahoo

Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to transform China into a consumer-driven economy but gave no indication what Beijing will do about big state companies that reformers warn could handicap future growth.  Wen confirmed a 7.5% growth target in an annual economic plan.  That is below the double-digit rates of the past decade but in line with Communist Party plans for a rebalancing of the world's 2nd-largest economy away from reliance on trade & investment to drive growth.  Wen steps down next week after 10 years as China's top economic official but the goals he announced are part of a long-range plan incoming leaders under the newly installed party general secretary, Xi Jinping, are expected to adhere to.  "We should energetically change the growth model and speed up structural adjustment of industry," said Wen.  "We should enhance people's ability to consume."  Promoting consumer spending would both support more self-sustaining growth and boost living standards for ordinary Chinese, who have been treated until now as a source of labor while an elite reaped most of the benefits of explosive growth.  The gov is pressing companies to raise wages & pledged in Jan to narrow China's huge gap between the elite & its poor majority.  But consumer spending is growing more slowly than authorities want, which forced China to rely on financed investment to support its recovery from an economic slowdown.

China plans for slower, consumer-driven growth AP


EU Opens Way for Easier Budgets After Italian Austerity Backlash

Photo:   Bloomberg

Euro finance ministers opened the way for looser budget policies after a backlash against austerity thrust Italy into political limbo & shattered months of relative stability in European markets.  Italy’s deadlocked election, France’s refusal to make deeper budget cuts & protests against the shrinking of the welfare state across southern Europe escalated the rebellion against the German-led prescription for fighting the debt crisis.  Economic strains “may also justify in a certain number of cases reviewing deadlines for the correction of excessive deficits,” EU Economic & Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn said.  The euro-zone economy will shrink 0.3% in 2013, making for the first annual back-to-back contraction since the currency’s birth in 1999.  The prediction masked a widening north- south divide, with growth in countries like Germany, Finland, Belgium & Luxembourg set against dwindling output in Italy, Greece, Spain & Portugal.  France is straddling the middle, set to eke out a 0.1% expansion after the economy stagnated in 2012 & deeper budget cuts are out of the question said the French Finance Minister.  Europe like the US has plenty of problems to deal with.

EU Opens Way for Easier Budgets After Austerity Backlash


Bulls finally got their way & took the Dow to a new record.  But it was a very long fight to get there.  The DC fiscal mess is stuck in neutral & Europe has more than its share of problems.  However, it feels good to look at portfolios & see higher values.  The ISM data was favorable.  Let's see how long consumer support those expansion thoughts.

Dow Jones Industrials

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