Monday, March 4, 2013

Markets slide lower on federal budget cuts

Dow fell 35, decliners ahead of advancers 4-3 & NAZ was off 4.  The Financial Index did little at 237.  The MLP index was off fractionally, staying above 430, & the REIT index inched up a smidgen to over 281.  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher while Treasuries rose.  Commodities are marking time, but oil has lost its momentum to take it above 100 & gold is stuck below 1600.

AMJ (Alerian Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.104%

U.S. 2-year

0.232%

U.S. 10-year

1.860%

CLJ13.NYM.....Crude Oil Apr 13...90.51 ...Down 0.17  (0.2%)

GCH13.CMX...Gold Mar 13.....1,574.20 ...Up 2.30 (0.2%)









The € traded at the lowest level against the dollar in almost 3 months as Italy moved toward more elections & before data forecast to show the region’s economy shrank in Q4.  The ¥ rose against most of its 16 major peers as stocks in China dropped by the most in 2 years, boosting demand for haven assets.  The Australian dollar sank to an almost 8-month low against its US equivalent after building approvals declined.  The Dollar Index traded at almost its highest level since Aug.  Italy, Germany & France will report monthly purchasing manager index figures tomorrow.  The € was off fractionally to $1.30 vs $1.37 a month ago.  The ¥ gained to 93.4 per dollar.  The € is forecasted to fall lower, possibly to the $1.25 area.  Meanwhile,the Treasury 10-year yields touched a 5-week low as Italy moved closer to a new election which boosted demand for the safest assets

Euro Falls Versus Dollar on Italy, Growth Concern; Aussie Drops


Lawmakers Take Wait-and-Blame Approach as Budget Cuts Unfold

Photo:   Bloomberg

The pres & congressional leaders are taking a wait-and-blame approach as automatic, across-the-board spending cuts begin to trickle thru the gov, cuts that were NEVER INTENDED to take effect.  Even as the pres phoned Dem & Rep leaders over the weekend, Obama’s aides & politicos signaled the budget reductions would continue for weeks, possibly months!  Both sides indicated that revisiting the reductions would begin after they resolve a looming confrontation over legislation that’s needed to keep federal agencies running beyond Mar 27, placing a premium on avoiding a gov shutdown.  Unlike in previous budget showdowns, where congressional leaders shuttled between the Capitol & the White House, lawmakers weren’t holding urgent negotiations & Obama didn’t have any scheduled public events this week specifically tied to the budget cuts.  Don't forget, the need the raise the debt ceiling AGAIN is approaching!

Obama, Congress Take Wait-and-Blame Approach on Budget


All is not well in Europe, part of the reason for the decline in the €.  Spain now has a record 5M as unemployed in the country remains stuck in recession.  The Labor Ministry said that the number of people on the unemployment list in Feb jumped by 59K compared with Jan, making for a total of 5M+. while it battles to emerge from its 2nd recession in just over 3 years with its economy still reeling from the collapse of the once-booming real estate sector.  The country's unemployment rate was at 26% at the end of Q4. 

Spain's jobless hits record 5 million in February AP


The fiscal mess is getting thru to the stock market, but there was no significant amount of selling today.  All indications are that this will drone on for weeks if not months because of a dysfunctional DC with no leadership.  The new month will bring the Feb jobs report on Fri & other indications of how the economy held up in Feb.  One thing is certain, budget cutbacks will be a kick in the head that GDP does not need.  Not only will there be less spending (decided to do the most damage to taxpayers) but business execs will be less inclined to invest in an economy that is adrift.  So far, Dow continues above 14K, where is was on Feb 1.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart







 

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