Thursday, March 7, 2013

Markets rise on lower jobless claims

Dow added another 47 to yesterday's record close, advancers ahead of decliners 4-3 & NAZ gained 4.  The Financial Index rose 1+ to the 244s, a new post Lehman collapse high.  The MLP index was up 1 to 431 & the REIT index slipped a fraction in the 283s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries sold offf, taking yield on the 10 year Treasury near 2%.  Oil rebounded after recent selling & gold did little, still below 1600.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.094%

U.S. 2-year

0.252%

U.S. 10-year

1.970%

CLJ13.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 13...91.02 ....Up 0.59 (0.7%)

GCH13.CMX...Gold Mar 13.....1,576.30 ...Up 1.70 (0.1%)










Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Decline to a Six-Week Low

Photo:   Bloomberg

First-time jobless claims unexpectedly fell 7K to 340K last week, the lowest in 2 months, according to the Labor Dept.  The forecast called for an increase to 355K.  Companies are easing up on dismissals as purchases of equipment climb & households maintain spending in the face of higher payroll taxes.  Further declines in layoffs are a first step toward bigger employment & wage gains. The less-volatile 4-week average fell 7K to 348K, the lowest since Mar 2008.  The number continuing to receive jobless benefits rose by 3K to 3.09M.  The continuing claims figure doesn’t include Americans receiving extended unemployment benefits under federal programs.  Those collecting emergency & extended payments decreased 225K to 1.78M.  The unemployment rate among Americans eligible for benefits held at 2.4%.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall to a Six-Week Low


<p>               President of the European Central Bank, ECB, Mario Draghi speaks during a news conference at their headquarters in Frankfurt, central Germany, Thursday, March 7, 2013. The European Central Bank has left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.75 percent, holding off on further stimulus even though the euro area remains stuck in recession. The decision came Thursday at a meeting of the bank's 23-member governing council at its headquarters in Frankfurt. (AP Photo/dpa, Arne Dedert)

Photo:   Yahoo

ECB President Mario Draghi is urging indebted govs to move beyond spending cuts & tax hikes, & introduce reforms that would boost growth & reduce the "tragedy" of unemployment.  He praised the progress made by EU countries that use the € in cutting their average gov deficit to 3.5% of economic output overall last year, down from 4.2% the year before.  The reduction was done thru spending cuts & more taxes.  But these austerity methods have had the knock-on effect of hitting growth & sending the jobless rate to 11.9%, highest since the euro was launched in 1999.  Draghi went out of his way to urge steps for growth, by shaking up hiring rules & regulations affecting the products companies make.  The goal is to encourage growth & new hires by companies in countries that have left large numbers of young workers on the sidelines of their stagnant economies.  He said it was "of particular importance" to tackle youth joblessness.  Unemployment is "a tragedy, and youth unemployment is an even bigger tragedy," Draghi added.  The ECB president said that austerity must be followed up with a "comprehensive structural reform agenda to improve the outlook for job creation, economic growth and debt sustainability."  Draghi spoke after the bank left its key rate unchanged at a record low of 0.75%, even though the eurozone's economy is in recession.  The ECB lowered its forecast for this year, saying the economy would shrink 0.5% instead of the 0.3% shrinkage projected in Dec.  This economic picture is not pretty.



As $85B in spending cuts hit the federal budget, the pres is taking the rare step of lavishing personal attention on Rep lawmakers he considers open to making a deal to reduce the deficit.  He broke bread last night with a dozen Rep senators, hosting a dinner at a luxury hotel near the White House.  Next week, he’ll visit the Capitol to meet separately with Reps & Dems in the Senate.  Obama has also spoken by telephone with at least a half- dozen Rep lawmakers over the past few days about the budget & other priorities of his 2nd term, including a rewrite of immigration laws & controlling gun violence.  The increased outreach marks a shift in strategy by the pres, amid signs his poll numbers are falling after he & Reps were unable to avert the across-the- board spending cuts that took effect Mar 1.  Obama’s job-performance rating was 46% in Gallup's tracking of opinion March 1-3, 5 points lower than it averaged during the 2nd half of Feb.  It rose to 48% in the Mar 3-5 tracking poll.  Having failed to win concessions from Rep leaders, Obama is reaching out to others who might be persuaded to split away from the party’s opposition to his proposals, which include raising taxes for top earners.  “The president is interested in finding the members of the caucus of common sense and working with them to bring about a resolution to this challenge,” the White House spokesman said.



Stocks continue on their winning ways, but cautiously.  There is still a lot of nervousness after Dow reached record highs. Europe is mired in a recession & the US still has whopper size fiscal problems to solve.  The pres is putting on a charm offense which should help, but it can't override new economic problems as the federal budget gets pinched with the threats of more cutbacks coming.  For the time being the bulls are in charge but their command of the markets is fragile.

Dow Jones Industrials

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