Dow was off 14, decliners just ahead of advancers & NAZ slipped pocket change. The Financial Index was up a fraction in the 246s. The MLP index retreated 1 to 435 & the REIT index was up a fraction in the 282s, both close to their highs. Junk bond funds were mixed to lower & Treasuries fell, pushing 10-year
yields toward an 11-month high, after sales at US retailers
increased in Feb by the most in 5 months, fueling
investor appetite for higher-yielding assets. Oil is climbing again & gold lost a little.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
CEO's confidence in the economy rebounded in Q1, but they remained leery of taking on new workers at home. The Business Roundtable's CEO Economic Outlook Index rose to 81.0 in Mar from 65.6 in Dec, according to a quarterly survey, which was conducted before the recent sharp rise in the US stock market. Any number above 50 indicates growth. Officials with the group, whose members employ 16M, blamed the continued wariness about hiring on uncertainty in DC, where the Dems & Reps have been squabbling for 2 years without reaching an agreement on how to reduce the almost $17T federal debt. The CEOs' increased confidence reflected improved expectations for sales & plans to boost US capital spending over the next 6 months. But CEOs remained unlikely to add workers, with just 29% planning to boost US employment over the next 6 months, the same percentage as in Dec. 72% of CEOs expect their companies' sales to rise in the next 6 months, up from 58% who expected that in Dec, & the percentage who plan to boost US capital spending increased to 38% from 30%. CEOs also modestly raised their expectations for growth in real US GDP, which they now expect to rise 2.1% this year, up from a 2.0% gain forecast in Dec.
CEOs See Improving Economy, Still Wary of Hiring
Photo: Bloomberg
Americans spent at the fastest pace in 5 months in Feb, boosting retail spending 1.1% compared with Jan. About half the jump reflected higher gas prices, but even excluding gas purchases, retail sales rose 0.6%. The report from the Commerce Dept showed that Americans kept spending last month despite higher Social Security taxes that took effect this year. Core retail sales, excluding gas, autos & building supply stores, rose 0.4% compared with Jan. The stronger-than-expected gain in retail sales is considered encouraging. Auto sales rose 1.1% after a 0.4% Jan increase. Sales at gas stations surged 5%, the biggest advance since a 6% rise in Aug. Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.5%. But the department store category as a whole fell 1%. The solid increase in retail sales showed that Americans kept spending despite a payroll tax increase that has lowered take-home pay this year for most workers.
Sales at U.S. Retailers Advance by Most in Five Months
Photo: Bloomberg
Some of the elements of a budgetary “grand bargain” will be on the table today & merging them is the biggest political challenge in DC. The Dems will unveil the party’s fiscal 2014 budget, a plan generating almost $1T in new revenue (higher taxes) while protecting Medicare & expanding Medicaid health coverage for more low-income Americans. It comes a day after Paul Ryan offered his plan for balancing the books in 10 years by cutting $4.6T. “If we pass our budget, and the Senate passes their budget, we have at least revived the budget process through which we can look for common ground,” Ryan said. Lawmakers are waiting to see whether the pres will chart a compromise for those competing visions or side with the Dems as he pushes for a grand-bargain budget settlement this year.
Grand Bargain Taxes, Entitlements Cuts Await Deal-Makers
Stocks are marking time while the verbal battles heat up over fixing the fiscal debt mess. Dems will offer a plan to increase spending & pay for it by taxing the rich. Unfortunately the rich don't have enough money to fix the whopper size deficit. It's also easy to forget that they spend money which helps retail sales grow. The pres can be expected to warmly embrace the idea of more spending. The stock market is assuming that the gov will continue to spend beyond its means. Unfortunately there will be a day of reckoning.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Treasury yields:
U.S. 3-month |
0.094% | |
U.S. 2-year |
0.260% | |
U.S. 10-year |
2.032% |
| CLJ13.NYM | ....Crude Oil Apr 13 | ...93.27 | ... 0.73 | (0.8%) |
| GCH13.CMX | ...Gold Mar 13 | ....1,593.10 | ... 1.60 | (0.1%) |
CEO's confidence in the economy rebounded in Q1, but they remained leery of taking on new workers at home. The Business Roundtable's CEO Economic Outlook Index rose to 81.0 in Mar from 65.6 in Dec, according to a quarterly survey, which was conducted before the recent sharp rise in the US stock market. Any number above 50 indicates growth. Officials with the group, whose members employ 16M, blamed the continued wariness about hiring on uncertainty in DC, where the Dems & Reps have been squabbling for 2 years without reaching an agreement on how to reduce the almost $17T federal debt. The CEOs' increased confidence reflected improved expectations for sales & plans to boost US capital spending over the next 6 months. But CEOs remained unlikely to add workers, with just 29% planning to boost US employment over the next 6 months, the same percentage as in Dec. 72% of CEOs expect their companies' sales to rise in the next 6 months, up from 58% who expected that in Dec, & the percentage who plan to boost US capital spending increased to 38% from 30%. CEOs also modestly raised their expectations for growth in real US GDP, which they now expect to rise 2.1% this year, up from a 2.0% gain forecast in Dec.
CEOs See Improving Economy, Still Wary of Hiring
Photo: Bloomberg
Americans spent at the fastest pace in 5 months in Feb, boosting retail spending 1.1% compared with Jan. About half the jump reflected higher gas prices, but even excluding gas purchases, retail sales rose 0.6%. The report from the Commerce Dept showed that Americans kept spending last month despite higher Social Security taxes that took effect this year. Core retail sales, excluding gas, autos & building supply stores, rose 0.4% compared with Jan. The stronger-than-expected gain in retail sales is considered encouraging. Auto sales rose 1.1% after a 0.4% Jan increase. Sales at gas stations surged 5%, the biggest advance since a 6% rise in Aug. Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.5%. But the department store category as a whole fell 1%. The solid increase in retail sales showed that Americans kept spending despite a payroll tax increase that has lowered take-home pay this year for most workers.
Sales at U.S. Retailers Advance by Most in Five Months
Photo: Bloomberg
Some of the elements of a budgetary “grand bargain” will be on the table today & merging them is the biggest political challenge in DC. The Dems will unveil the party’s fiscal 2014 budget, a plan generating almost $1T in new revenue (higher taxes) while protecting Medicare & expanding Medicaid health coverage for more low-income Americans. It comes a day after Paul Ryan offered his plan for balancing the books in 10 years by cutting $4.6T. “If we pass our budget, and the Senate passes their budget, we have at least revived the budget process through which we can look for common ground,” Ryan said. Lawmakers are waiting to see whether the pres will chart a compromise for those competing visions or side with the Dems as he pushes for a grand-bargain budget settlement this year.
Grand Bargain Taxes, Entitlements Cuts Await Deal-Makers
Stocks are marking time while the verbal battles heat up over fixing the fiscal debt mess. Dems will offer a plan to increase spending & pay for it by taxing the rich. Unfortunately the rich don't have enough money to fix the whopper size deficit. It's also easy to forget that they spend money which helps retail sales grow. The pres can be expected to warmly embrace the idea of more spending. The stock market is assuming that the gov will continue to spend beyond its means. Unfortunately there will be a day of reckoning.
Dow Jones Industrials
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