Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Markets fluctuate as budget debate heats up

Dow added 12, decliners barely ahead of advancers, & NAZ fell 9. The Financial Index was down a fraction in the 246s.  The MLP index did little in the 436s & the REIT index was off 1 to the 282s.  Junk bond funds slipped & Treasuries gained after recent selling.  Oil went up, maybe trying for $100, & gold was flat.

AMJ ((Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury Yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.099%

U.S. 2-year

0.256%

U.S. 10-year

2.027%

CLJ13.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 13...93.00 ...Up 0.94 (1.0%)

GCH13.CMX...Gold Mar 131,5...91.40 ...Up 13.60 (0.9%)











<p>               FILE - In this Jan. 1, 2013 file photo, House Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis. leaves a Republican caucus on Capitol Hill in Washington. A Senate bill to carry the government through September denies the Obama administration money for implementing new regulations on Wall Street and expansion of government health care subsidies but provides modest additional funding for domestic priorities like Head Start and health research. Looking to next year, House Republicans prepare a now-familiar budget featuring futile gestures to block "Obamacare" and turn Medicare into a voucherlike program for future retirees. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)

Photo:   Yahoo

House Reps unveiled their latest budget outline, sticking to their plans to try to repeal Obamacare, cut domestic programs ranging from Medicaid to college grants & require future Medicare patients to bear more of the program's cost.  The point is to prove it's possible to balance the budget within 10 years by simply cutting spending & avoiding further tax hikes, even though the fiscal blueprint just released by Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, will be dead on arrival because of the White House & Dems opposition in  the Senate.  The latest plan generally resembles prior ones, relying on higher tax revenues enacted in Jan & improved Medicare cost estimates, along with somewhat sharper spending cuts, to promise balance.  Senate Dems plan to offer a counterproposal on tomorrow with higher spending on domestic programs & additional tax hikes on top of the higher rates imposed on top-bracket earners in Jan.  That plan will, in turn, arrive as a dead letter in the GOP-controlled House.  At issue is the arcane & partisan congressional budget process, one that is unlikely to illustrate a path forward in a gridlocked DC.  At stake are budget resolutions, which are nonbinding measures that have the potential to stake out parameters for follow-up legislation cutting spending & rewriting the complex tax code.  The partisan exercise comes even as the pres travels to Capitol Hill to meet with Senate Dems in an attempt to resuscitate his failed efforts for bipartisanship.

GOP Budget Takes Aim Again at Obamacare, Medicaid  AP



Spain’s borrowing costs dropped at a bill auction as investors bet the ECB will put a lid on market volatility triggered by a political stalemate in Italy.  The Treasury sold €5.8B ($7.6B) of 6 & 12 month securities, beating its upper goal of €5.5B for the sale, the Bank of Spain said.  It sold 6-month bills at an average 0.794%, down from 0.859% last month & the 12-month securities yielded 1.363%, down from 1.548%.  The yield on the 10-year benchmark bond last week fell to the lowest since Nov 2010 after it sold 5-year & 10-year debt at the cheapest yields in more than 2 years.  Meanwhile, ECB President Mario Draghi rejected concerns a political impasse following an inconclusive vote in Italy may threaten the euro area’s recovery path.

Spain Beats Maximum Target at Bill Auction as Yields Decline


Global tablet shipments will surge to 350M units by 2017 as smaller, cheaper devices gain market share & devices powered by Google software gain ground against Apple iPads, according to IDC.  Sales of handheld computers will reach 191M units this year, IDC said today, higher than it’s prior prediction for 172M.  Devices running Android software will command 49% of the tablet market this year, higher than the previous prediction for 42% & AAPL share will slip to 46% from 51% last year.  Windows 8 from Microsoft (MSFT), a Dow stock, software will be used on 7.4% of tablets by 2017, up from just 1% last year, IDC said, taking share from AAPL & GOOG.  As multi-functional tablets gain in popularity, fewer consumers will buy dedicated e-readers.  After peaking at 26M units in 2011, e-reader shipments slipped to 18M last year & will “grow only modestly” this year & in 2014 before starting a gradual decline by 2015.  AAPL stock lost 5 to 432 & has a dismal chart while GOOG lost 8 to 826. with a very good chart.

Apple Losing Share in Tablet Market as Google, Microsoft Advance

Apple (AAPL)


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Google (GOOG)


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Traders are trying to figure out what to make of the goings on in DC.  The budget battle is heating up & the stakes are huge for the economy.  Dems want more spending & Reps want less, it's that simple.  Dems control the White House & Senate but the Reps are in control of the House.  The 2 sides are as deeply divided as they have ever been.  Somehow they are supposed to come together with a solution.  I don't see how & this divide spells serious trouble for the stock market.

Dow Jones Industrials

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