Dow surged 152, advancers over decliners about 2-1 & NAZ gained 20. The MLP index was up a fraction in the 283s & the REIT index slid back a fraction to the 349s. Junk bond funds advanced & Treasuries were slightly lower. Oil dropped below 51 (more below including Sep production from OPEC) & gold sank 9 to 1275.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.36610736694886314)
Equities rose with the $ as factory data & the prospect for tax cuts boosted optimism in the economy. The S&P 500 hovered near record highs to start Q4 & the $ headed for the strongest level since Jul after data showed US manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 13 years. Oil fell toward $50 a barrel & Treasuries fluctuated. Investors are also watching developments in Las Vegas, where more than 58 people have died in the deadliest shooting in modern US history. Global shares began the final qtr on firm footing amid signs manufacturing is strengthening. China reported an unexpectedly strong factory gauge & Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey showed the country's big manufacturers are the most confident in a decade. While US factories got a lift from 2 major hurricanes, the UK. reported slowing growth. US investors also took into account the prospects that Congress will enact a pro-growth tax plan & ongoing speculation that Pres Trump will opt for a Fed boss who might pursue more aggressive policy tightening.
OPEC pumped slightly more crude in Sep as Libya's biggest oil field returned to production. Output from OPEC was 32.8M barrels a day in Sep, a gain of 120K barrels a day from Aug. Production in Libya, which along with Nigeria is exempt from output cuts, rebounded 30K barrels a day to 920K barrels as the Sharara field restarted after a halt of more than 2 weeks. Nigerian output increased by 20K barrels to 1.77M barrels a day, just short of the 1.8M barrels a day that could eventually lead to its participation in OPEC's effort to reduce output. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, boosted production by 60K barrels a day to 10.06M barrels, while Gulf neighbor Kuwait lifted output 50K barrels to 2.76M barrels a day. The recovery in production puts OPEC back to levels reached in Jul, when the group pumped 32.85M barrels a day. The compliance rate of the 12 members who agreed to curb their supply dropped to 82%, from 88% the month before. Last month at a meeting in Vienna, OPEC & its allies including Russia stopped short of saying whether their existing deal should be prolonged when it expires at the end of Mar. The producers have enjoyed a recovery in oil prices as their efforts to draw down stockpiles helped rebalance the market. While a threat from Turkey to interrupt crude export flows from Iraqi Kurdistan also weighed on sentiment, there hasn't yet been any disruption to shipments through the region's only pipeline. Brent, the global benchmark, touched a 2-year closing high of $59.02 a barrel last week & prices traded at $55.59 on Mon. Libya's Sharara field operated for most of Sep, but suffered another halt today after an armed group forced workers to stop producing. The latest halt highlights the volatility of supply from the nation with Africa's largest crude reserves. The prospect of Nigerian output breaching 1.8M barrels a day was dealt a blow on Sep 16, the Nembe Creek Trunk Line by operator Aiteo was closed.
OPEC Oil Output Climbed in September as Libya, Nigeria Recover
Oil fell more than $1 a barrel to below $56 as a rise in US drilling & higher OPEC output put the brakes on a rally that helped prices to register their biggest Q3 gain in 13 years. US energy companies added oil rigs for the first week in 7 & Iraq announced its exports rose slightly in Sep while OPEC overall boosted output. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down $1.02 at $55.77 a barrel after notching a Q3 gain of 20%, the biggest Q3 increase since 2004. Today US crude was down $1.22 at $50.45. The US benchmark posted its strongest quarterly gain since the Q2-2016. The rally was driven by mounting signs that a 3-year supply glut is easing, helped by a production cut deal among global producers led by OPEC. But a survey on Fri found OPEC oil output rose last month (described above). Middle Eastern oil producers are concerned the price rise will only stir US shale producers into more drilling & push prices lower again. Key OPEC producers consider a price above $60 as encouraging too much shale output. In Feb oil industry sources said Saudi Arabia would like to see oil around that $60 level. Technical charts suggest the rally may be running out of steam.
Oil falls below $56 on signs of higher output
Stocks began the qtr on a positive note, but all is not well. The mass killing in Las Vegas makes this one of the darkest days in American history. We pray for all the victims, their relatives & friends who are dealing with the aftermath up close. May those who were killed rest in peace.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Equities rose with the $ as factory data & the prospect for tax cuts boosted optimism in the economy. The S&P 500 hovered near record highs to start Q4 & the $ headed for the strongest level since Jul after data showed US manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 13 years. Oil fell toward $50 a barrel & Treasuries fluctuated. Investors are also watching developments in Las Vegas, where more than 58 people have died in the deadliest shooting in modern US history. Global shares began the final qtr on firm footing amid signs manufacturing is strengthening. China reported an unexpectedly strong factory gauge & Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey showed the country's big manufacturers are the most confident in a decade. While US factories got a lift from 2 major hurricanes, the UK. reported slowing growth. US investors also took into account the prospects that Congress will enact a pro-growth tax plan & ongoing speculation that Pres Trump will opt for a Fed boss who might pursue more aggressive policy tightening.
U.S. Stocks, Dollar Gain as Manufacturing Surges: Markets Wrap
OPEC pumped slightly more crude in Sep as Libya's biggest oil field returned to production. Output from OPEC was 32.8M barrels a day in Sep, a gain of 120K barrels a day from Aug. Production in Libya, which along with Nigeria is exempt from output cuts, rebounded 30K barrels a day to 920K barrels as the Sharara field restarted after a halt of more than 2 weeks. Nigerian output increased by 20K barrels to 1.77M barrels a day, just short of the 1.8M barrels a day that could eventually lead to its participation in OPEC's effort to reduce output. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, boosted production by 60K barrels a day to 10.06M barrels, while Gulf neighbor Kuwait lifted output 50K barrels to 2.76M barrels a day. The recovery in production puts OPEC back to levels reached in Jul, when the group pumped 32.85M barrels a day. The compliance rate of the 12 members who agreed to curb their supply dropped to 82%, from 88% the month before. Last month at a meeting in Vienna, OPEC & its allies including Russia stopped short of saying whether their existing deal should be prolonged when it expires at the end of Mar. The producers have enjoyed a recovery in oil prices as their efforts to draw down stockpiles helped rebalance the market. While a threat from Turkey to interrupt crude export flows from Iraqi Kurdistan also weighed on sentiment, there hasn't yet been any disruption to shipments through the region's only pipeline. Brent, the global benchmark, touched a 2-year closing high of $59.02 a barrel last week & prices traded at $55.59 on Mon. Libya's Sharara field operated for most of Sep, but suffered another halt today after an armed group forced workers to stop producing. The latest halt highlights the volatility of supply from the nation with Africa's largest crude reserves. The prospect of Nigerian output breaching 1.8M barrels a day was dealt a blow on Sep 16, the Nembe Creek Trunk Line by operator Aiteo was closed.
OPEC Oil Output Climbed in September as Libya, Nigeria Recover
Oil fell more than $1 a barrel to below $56 as a rise in US drilling & higher OPEC output put the brakes on a rally that helped prices to register their biggest Q3 gain in 13 years. US energy companies added oil rigs for the first week in 7 & Iraq announced its exports rose slightly in Sep while OPEC overall boosted output. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down $1.02 at $55.77 a barrel after notching a Q3 gain of 20%, the biggest Q3 increase since 2004. Today US crude was down $1.22 at $50.45. The US benchmark posted its strongest quarterly gain since the Q2-2016. The rally was driven by mounting signs that a 3-year supply glut is easing, helped by a production cut deal among global producers led by OPEC. But a survey on Fri found OPEC oil output rose last month (described above). Middle Eastern oil producers are concerned the price rise will only stir US shale producers into more drilling & push prices lower again. Key OPEC producers consider a price above $60 as encouraging too much shale output. In Feb oil industry sources said Saudi Arabia would like to see oil around that $60 level. Technical charts suggest the rally may be running out of steam.
Oil falls below $56 on signs of higher output
Stocks began the qtr on a positive note, but all is not well. The mass killing in Las Vegas makes this one of the darkest days in American history. We pray for all the victims, their relatives & friends who are dealing with the aftermath up close. May those who were killed rest in peace.
Dow Jones Industrials
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