Monday, April 15, 2019

Lower markets on sluggish bank earnings reports

Dow dropped 63, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ fell 41.  The MLP index was fractionally lower to the 257s & the REIT index lost 2+ to the 381s.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries crawled up in price.  Oil pulled back in the 63s & gold was off 5 to 1289.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil63.65
-0.24-0.4%

GC=FGold   1,288.60
-6.60-0.5%







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Stocks slipped as investors focused on big bank earnings, amid a key investment bank's Q1 revenue missing expectations.  The blue-chip Dow was close to its record high of 26,828, which it reached last Oct 3.  The broader S&P 500 was also near its record high of 2930.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped to more than 2.5% in an indication of investor optimism about stocks.  The price of West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark US crude oil, fell 0.7% to $63.43.  In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite closed down 0.3%, the Hang Seng fell 0.3% & Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 1.4%.  In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was up fractionally, France's CAC 40 inched higehr & Germany's DAX added 0.2%.

US stocks slip modestly as bank earnings roll in

Chicago Federal Reserve Pres Charles Evan said that he'd be comfortable leaving interest rates alone until autumn 2020 to help ensure sustained inflation in the US.  “I can see the funds rate being flat and unchanged into the fall of 2020. For me, that’s to help support the inflation outlook and make sure it’s sustainable,” Evans said.  Though Evans said he wouldn't categorize theDec 2018 rate increase as a mistake, the central bank official did highlight more muted economic growth estimates & elusive inflation as priorities.  The Fed has for years targeted 2% inflation as a level at which the US economy can grow at a healthy clip.  The central bank's preferred inflation metric, core personal consumption expenditures index, rose to 2% in May 2018, but has had trouble maintaining that level.  Some officials that have been concerned about spotty inflation reads, including Evans, have suggested that they'd be comfortable letting prices rise above a 2% pace in times of economic expansion to balance out periods of lower inflation & slower GDP growth.  “I had been thinking that inflation was finally going to be solid, hit 2% on a sustained basis — maybe go over a little bit. That was my projection,” Evans added.  “And on the strength of that I had — as recently as September and December — thought that maybe a couple rate hikes were in our future.”  As a member of the central bank's policymaking arm in 2019, Evans joined his fellow Fed colleagues in voting to hold the benchmark overnight lending rate steady in Mar.  The FOMC also suggested at its meeting last month that no more interest rate increases will be coming this year.  Evans said in Mar that recent concerns about an inverted yield curve, where short-term yields exceed long-term, often viewed as a recession indicator, & general growth angst were enough to make some economists nervous. “I think anytime the economy decelerates from 3.1% down to 2%, it takes a really sharp-minded focus to kind of go, ‘All right, it’s less than what we had but it’s still pretty good,’” he said then.  Though Evans sees economic growth of 1.75-2% this year, he noted in Mar that the US labor market looked strong & that he wasn't worried about a recession.

Fed’s Charles Evans tells CNBC rates can stay unchanged into fall of 202

Citigroup (C) reported mixed Q1 results, saying its earnings were boosted by share buybacks while revenues fell amid a sharp decline in equities trading:
  • EPS of $1.87 vs $1.80 expected
  • Revenue: $18.576B vs $18.634B forecast
  • Fixed-income, currencies & commodities trading revenue: $3.452B vs $3.05B expected
  • Equities trading: $842M vs $930M
  • Investment banking revenue: $1.354B vs $1.2B forecast
The bank repurchased $4.06B in shares in Q1 & returned $1.08B to shareholders with stock div.  “Our earnings reflect the progress we are making to improve our return on and return of capital,” CEO Michael Corbat said.  “We remain committed to executing our strategy and continuing to make steady progress towards our financial targets.”  Earnings were 11% higher on a year-over-year basis.  However, overall revenue fell 2% following a sharp slowdown in its equity trading business.  Equity-trading revenue fell 24% in Q1.  Citi said the drop reflected “lower market volumes & client financing balances.”  The sharp decline was partially offset by a 20% revenue surge in investment banking revenue.  The stock fell 57¢.
If you would like to learn more about Citi, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/C?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Citigroup earnings beat expectations amid buybacks, but revenues fall

Goldman Sachs (GS), a Dow stock, reported better than expected earnings, but fell short of revenue expectations.  That revenue miss helped send the stock lower.  GS had a painful end to 2018 when its stock skidded in Q4, ending the year down 35%, as the bank found itself increasingly wrapped up in the 1MDB scandal.  That's an overhang for the stock, no matter how good the earnings.  Q1 EPS was $5.71 on $8.8B in revenue.  Analysts were looking for adjusted EPS of $4.96.  The consensus expectation was for the bank to deliver $8.97B in revenue.  The stock sank 6.27.
If you would like to learn more about Citi, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/C?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Goldman Sachs Stock Is Down Because Revenue Came Up Short


This was not an exciting day for traders.   Bank earnings are coming in lackluster which could be an ominous sign for corp earnings due shortly.  However the bulls are keeping the Dow within 500 of setting a new reocrd.

Dow Jones Industrials








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