Thursday, April 25, 2019

Markets fall on disappointing earnings

Dow sank 230, decliners over advancers more than 2-1 & NAZ crawled up 6.  The MLP index gave back 1+ to the 25s & the REIT index fell 1+ to the 374s.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries were even.  Oil was steady in the 65s & gold rose 4 to 1283 while stocks were being sold.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil65.84
-0.05 -0.1%

GC=FGold   1,283.50
+4.10+0.3%







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Stocks opened mixed with the Dow dragged down by a sharp decline in 3M (MMM) shares but the NAZ index saw a new record high helped by earnings from technology giants.  The benchmark S&P 500 index also opened lower as investors gauged earnings earnings reports.  The $ hit a 4 month high overnight.  More than 170 S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results so far.  Of those companies, 78% have posted better-than-expected earnings.  The Commerce Dept said orders for long-lasting durable goods posted the biggest increase in Mar since last summer, suggesting a rebound in manufacturing, led by autos, planes & networking equipment.  While the industrial sector is still expanding, the ongoing US trade dispute with China & a weaker global economy are providing headwinds.  China's Shanghai Composite closed down 2.4%, the Hang Seng finished lower 0.9% & Japan's Nikkei 225 ended up 0.5%.  Britain's FTSE 100 was off 0.8%, France's CAC 40 fell 0.6% & Germany's DAX declined 0.4%.

Stocks open mixed with Dow down, Nasdaq at new high


3M (MMM), a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, said it would lay off 2K workers globally as it reported a lower-than-expected quarterly profit & cut its 2019 earnings forecast due to worsening performance in key markets. The job cuts, part of moves to restructure its businesses into 4 operating units from 5, would result in an estimated annual pre-tax savings range of $225-250M, with $100M in the remainder of 2019.  MMM, which makes everything from adhesive tapes to air filters, expects 2019 adjusted EPS of $9.25-9.75 a share, versus its prior forecast of $10.45-10.90.  The stock plunged 23 (11%).
If you would like to learn more about MMM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MMM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

3M to cut 2,000 jobs globally, lowers 2019 profit outlook

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits increased by the most in 19 months last week, but the underlying trend continued to point to strength.  Initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 37K to a seasonally adjusted 230K last week, the Labor Dept said.  The increase was the largest since early Sep 2017.  Claims dropped to 193K in the week prior, which was the lowest level since 1969.  The forecast called for claims rising to only 200K in the latest week.  Claims tend to be volatile around this time of the year because of the different timings of Easter & Passover holidays, as well as spring breaks.  Despite the volatility, labor market strength remains intact.  The 4-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 4K to 206K last week.  Job gains averaged 180K in Q1, well above the roughly 100K jobs per month needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population.  The strong labor market is helping to support the economy which is slowing as last year's fiscal stimulus fades.  The unemployment rate is at 3.8%, close to the 3.7% Federal Reserve officials project it will be by the end of the year.  The claims report showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid rose 1K to 1.66M for the latest week.  The 4-week moving average of continuing claims fell 25K to 1.69M.  The continuing claims data covered the week during which households were surveyed for Apr's unemployment rate.  Continuing claims declined by 100K between the Mar & Apr survey periods, suggesting an improvement in the unemployment rate this month.

US weekly jobless claims post biggest rise in 19 months

Southwest Airlines (LUV) Q1 earnings took a hit from the prolonged grounding of the Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, 737 Max jets that forced it to cancel more than 10K flights during the qtr.  The gov shutdown & maintenance issues also ate into the bottom line.  The airline, which has 34 of the Max jets, said it lost more than $200M in revenue during the qtr as a result.  The shutdown & groundings also impacted the revenue per available seat mile by 2 points.  The is extending Max cancellations thru Aug 5.  But earnings & revenue were better than expected.  Adjusted EPS was 70¢ vs 61¢ forecast & revenue was $5.15B vs the $5.12B forecast.  The 737 Max has been grounded since mid-Mar after the jet's anti-stall software was implicated in 2 fatal crashes.  Gary Kelly said the company was an “all-Boeing carrier” but it didn’t mean the airline would use the 737s in “perpetuity.”  “We’re not happy about this Max situation obviously, who is. Two tragic accidents,” he said.  “Our negotiations and our relationship with Boeing is something I’ll take up with [the company] privately.”  “I am especially proud of our nearly 60,000 employees for the commendable job under operationally difficult circumstances,” he added.  Fuel costs are expected to rise next quarter with Q2 fuel efficiency to be flat-to-down 1%, year-over-year after the removal of its Max jets, which use less fuel than other planes.  The stock went up 1.52.
If you would like to learn more about LUV, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/LUV?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Southwest Airlines first-quarter earnings take a hit from 737 Max groundings, government shutdown

The MMM earnings report was a huge disappintment for the bulls.  Techs (the NAZ) are doing well with favorable reports from Microsoft (MSFT), a Dow stock, & Facebook (FB).  However the report from MMM is probably a better signal of the type of reports that are coming.  Generally, the best reports come sooner.  The Dow started the day with significant selling which has not let up.

Dow Jones Industrials








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