Dow rose 110, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ inched up 1. The MLP index fell 1+ to the 251s & the REIT index recovered 3+ to the 373s after recent selling in REITs. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries went higher (more below). Oil crawled up to 64 (more below) & gold was steady at 1276.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
In a closely awaited report, the US Intl Trade Commission reported that the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) would increase US real GDP by $68.2B (0.4%) & help create 176K more US jobs, or increase employment by 0.1%. ITC's report analyzing the economic impact of USMCA also found that the trade deal, which needs to be ratified, would increase US exports to Canada by $19B to Mexico by $14B.
Treasury prices rose, pushing yields lower, after a weak eurozone purchasing managers index & the release of the Mueller report, drew investors into gov paper. In a holiday-shortened week, the Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association recommends the bond market close early at 2PM & stay closed on Good Friday. The 10-year Treasury note yield slipped 2.9 basis points to 2.563%, while the 2-year note yield edged lower by 1.6 basis points to 2.386%. The 30-year bond yield fell 3.2 basis points to 2.960%. Bond prices move inversely to yields. Treasuries & European bonds rallied after soft eurozone data dealt a blow to the hopes that the global economy & the eurozone was turning a corner. Still, analysts are optimistic that China’s fiscal stimulus & subsequent stabilization will boost export-dependent European economies later this year. The eurozone composite purchasing managers index for Apr to 51.3, from 51.6 in Mar, below expectation for 51.8. A reading above 50 indicates an increase in economic activity. In the US, retail sales in Mar jumped 1.6% last month, versus the 1.1% increase forecast. Weekly jobless claims for last week fell 192K, close to a 50-year low. But in less positive data, the Philadelphia Fed index for Apr fell to 8.5, from a reading of 13.7 in Mar. The Markit composite purchasing managers index fell to 52.8 in Apr, its lowest in more than 2 years, from 54.6 in Mar. The bond market maintained its rally after attorney general William Barr released the full report of Robert Mueller's investigation into links between Moscow & Pres Trump's presidential campaign.
Oil futures settled higher, with US prices up 0.2% for the holiday-shortened week. There will be no oil trading in US & UK on Good Friday. Traders continued to weigh the outlook for production, ahead of the expiration of the OPEC-led production cut agreement in Jun. May West Texas Intermediate oil rose 24¢ (0.4%) to settle at $64 a barrel on the NY Mercantile Exchange.
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits in mid-Apr fell for the 5th week in a row to a nearly 50-year low of 192K, a remarkably small level of layoffs that gives the economy a sturdy foundation on which it can continue to grow despite recent hiccups. Jobless claims slipped by 5K to 192K last week, the gov said. The forecast called for a 204K reading. New claims have totaled less than 200K for the 2nd week in a row, a feat last accomplished in the fall of 1969. Reduced layoffs, steady hiring & the lowest unemployment rate in ½ a century have produced the strongest labor market in decades & fueled a nearly record long economic expansion. Jobless claims have fallen steadily in the past 5 weeks after a brief spike in Feb tied to seasonal changes in employment. The 4-week average of new jobless claims dropped by 6K to 201K, also the lowest mark since 1969. The monthly average is viewed as more stable since it smoothens out the weekly gyrations. The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, known as continuing claims, declined 63K to 1.65M. That’s also near a multi-decade low. Diminished layoffs, steady hiring & the lowest unemployment rate in ½ a century have produced the strongest labor market in decades, fueling a long economic expansion that will turn 10 years old in Jun.
Sales at US retailers surged in Mar by the most in a year & a ½, the latest in a string of reports suggesting the economy is firming up after a soft spell of growth earlier in the year. Retail sales soared 1.6% last month, the gov said. The forecast called for sales to climb 1.1%. Sales of new cars and trucks rose 3.1%, the best performance this year, to give the broader retail industry a boost. Auto receipts represent about 1/5 of all retail sales. As a result, sales at auto dealers jumped 3.5%, the 2nd big increase in a row. In less welcome news, Americans also spent more to fill up their gas tanks. The average price of gas nationally rose almost 10% in Mar to $2.62 a gallon, gov figures show. The last time prices were that high was in Nov. Oil prices have risen sharply in early 2019, though prices are at similar level compared to the same time last year. Even if gas & autos are set aside, retail sales still rose a robust 0.9%. Among the big winners: internet retailers, clothing stores, home-furnishing outlets & grocers. Sales rose 1-2% in those segments. Sales rose in every category except for stores that sell books, musical instruments & hobby items. Traditional brick-&-mortar department stores were also laggards: sales were flat. The turnaround in retail sales last month adds to mounting evidence that the economy is perking up as spring gets underway. Growth is unlikely to match last year’s scorching 4.2% pace, but a sturdier expansion should ease lingering worries about the threat of recession later this year.
The Dow crawled up 150 in a short week with choppy trading. Not impressive, but the bulls are happy to see any gain. The Dow is 265 under the Oct record, not bad considering global economies have been sluggish & major trade deals are stuck in the mud. Hopes are running high on a US-China trade deal. Best holiday wishes for all!!
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The US economy remains on track to cool slightly in 2019, according to mortgage giant Fannie Mae. That's
largely a result of the fading fiscal stimulus from the $1.5T
Tax Cuts & Jobs Act passed in late 2017, which only
temporarily boosted consumer spending & business investment. Fannie said in a news release, it's forecasting economic growth for 2019 at 2.2%, down from about 3.0% in 2018. GDPNow,
an up-to-date tracker published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta,
is currently predicting 2.4% for Q1. That
reading on Apr 26 will reveal the effects of the longest gov
shutdown in history on the US economy. But
as the effects of that shutdown, which lasted for 34 days begin to wane, & if the Federal Reserve refrains from raising interest rates again
for the rest of this year, the economy could see stronger growth in H2. “The predominant downside
risks – the U.S.-China trade dispute and slowing global growth – are
expected to ease later this year, which should help bolster growth in
the second half,” Fannie Mae said. “Despite its self-described ‘patience,’ we still expect the
Fed to raise its key policy rate at the end of the year due to stronger
second-half growth.”
US economy on track to slow in 2019, Fannie Mae says
In a closely awaited report, the US Intl Trade Commission reported that the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) would increase US real GDP by $68.2B (0.4%) & help create 176K more US jobs, or increase employment by 0.1%. ITC's report analyzing the economic impact of USMCA also found that the trade deal, which needs to be ratified, would increase US exports to Canada by $19B to Mexico by $14B.
ITC says U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal would lift GDP by 0.35%
Treasury prices rose, pushing yields lower, after a weak eurozone purchasing managers index & the release of the Mueller report, drew investors into gov paper. In a holiday-shortened week, the Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association recommends the bond market close early at 2PM & stay closed on Good Friday. The 10-year Treasury note yield slipped 2.9 basis points to 2.563%, while the 2-year note yield edged lower by 1.6 basis points to 2.386%. The 30-year bond yield fell 3.2 basis points to 2.960%. Bond prices move inversely to yields. Treasuries & European bonds rallied after soft eurozone data dealt a blow to the hopes that the global economy & the eurozone was turning a corner. Still, analysts are optimistic that China’s fiscal stimulus & subsequent stabilization will boost export-dependent European economies later this year. The eurozone composite purchasing managers index for Apr to 51.3, from 51.6 in Mar, below expectation for 51.8. A reading above 50 indicates an increase in economic activity. In the US, retail sales in Mar jumped 1.6% last month, versus the 1.1% increase forecast. Weekly jobless claims for last week fell 192K, close to a 50-year low. But in less positive data, the Philadelphia Fed index for Apr fell to 8.5, from a reading of 13.7 in Mar. The Markit composite purchasing managers index fell to 52.8 in Apr, its lowest in more than 2 years, from 54.6 in Mar. The bond market maintained its rally after attorney general William Barr released the full report of Robert Mueller's investigation into links between Moscow & Pres Trump's presidential campaign.
Treasurys rally as investors grapple with economic and geopolitical jitters
Oil futures settled higher, with US prices up 0.2% for the holiday-shortened week. There will be no oil trading in US & UK on Good Friday. Traders continued to weigh the outlook for production, ahead of the expiration of the OPEC-led production cut agreement in Jun. May West Texas Intermediate oil rose 24¢ (0.4%) to settle at $64 a barrel on the NY Mercantile Exchange.
U.S. oil futures tally a gain for a seventh straight week
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits in mid-Apr fell for the 5th week in a row to a nearly 50-year low of 192K, a remarkably small level of layoffs that gives the economy a sturdy foundation on which it can continue to grow despite recent hiccups. Jobless claims slipped by 5K to 192K last week, the gov said. The forecast called for a 204K reading. New claims have totaled less than 200K for the 2nd week in a row, a feat last accomplished in the fall of 1969. Reduced layoffs, steady hiring & the lowest unemployment rate in ½ a century have produced the strongest labor market in decades & fueled a nearly record long economic expansion. Jobless claims have fallen steadily in the past 5 weeks after a brief spike in Feb tied to seasonal changes in employment. The 4-week average of new jobless claims dropped by 6K to 201K, also the lowest mark since 1969. The monthly average is viewed as more stable since it smoothens out the weekly gyrations. The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, known as continuing claims, declined 63K to 1.65M. That’s also near a multi-decade low. Diminished layoffs, steady hiring & the lowest unemployment rate in ½ a century have produced the strongest labor market in decades, fueling a long economic expansion that will turn 10 years old in Jun.
Jobless claims dive even lower to 192,000, sit at nearly 50-year low
Sales at US retailers surged in Mar by the most in a year & a ½, the latest in a string of reports suggesting the economy is firming up after a soft spell of growth earlier in the year. Retail sales soared 1.6% last month, the gov said. The forecast called for sales to climb 1.1%. Sales of new cars and trucks rose 3.1%, the best performance this year, to give the broader retail industry a boost. Auto receipts represent about 1/5 of all retail sales. As a result, sales at auto dealers jumped 3.5%, the 2nd big increase in a row. In less welcome news, Americans also spent more to fill up their gas tanks. The average price of gas nationally rose almost 10% in Mar to $2.62 a gallon, gov figures show. The last time prices were that high was in Nov. Oil prices have risen sharply in early 2019, though prices are at similar level compared to the same time last year. Even if gas & autos are set aside, retail sales still rose a robust 0.9%. Among the big winners: internet retailers, clothing stores, home-furnishing outlets & grocers. Sales rose 1-2% in those segments. Sales rose in every category except for stores that sell books, musical instruments & hobby items. Traditional brick-&-mortar department stores were also laggards: sales were flat. The turnaround in retail sales last month adds to mounting evidence that the economy is perking up as spring gets underway. Growth is unlikely to match last year’s scorching 4.2% pace, but a sturdier expansion should ease lingering worries about the threat of recession later this year.
Retail sales post biggest gain in 1 ½ years, point to rebounding economy
The Dow crawled up 150 in a short week with choppy trading. Not impressive, but the bulls are happy to see any gain. The Dow is 265 under the Oct record, not bad considering global economies have been sluggish & major trade deals are stuck in the mud. Hopes are running high on a US-China trade deal. Best holiday wishes for all!!
Dow Jones Industrials
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