Dow rose 41, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ slid back 1. The MLP index was fractionally higher to 255 & the REIT index was even in the 382s (record territory). Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were sold today. Oil fell to the 63s & gold sank 12 to 1301 (more below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The US is economy likely slowing from its strong rate of growth in 2018, with “important international risks” clouding the outlook, Federal Reserve vice chair Richard Clarida said. This summer, 10 years after the US emerged from a punishing recession, “the current economic expansion almost certainly will become the longest on record,” said Clarida, vouching for the economy's continued ability to grow. “That said, the incoming data have revealed signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing somewhat from 2018s robust pace,” Clarida said in remarks prepared for delivery at the Institute of International Finance policy summit. “Prospects for foreign economic growth have been marked down, and important international risks, such as Brexit, remain,” Clarida added, referring to Britain's presumed departure at some point from the EU. Coupled with “muted” inflation, Clarida said that outlook justified the Fed's current policy stance, with rates roughly at a level that neither encourages nor discourages investment & spending, & a “patient” approach to any further rate moves. The Fed has put further rate moves on hold as it assesses the degree to which economic growth is slowing & how major overseas economies fare in coming months.
Fed's Clarida: US slowing, but expansion will 'almost certainly' break record
Gold prices moved lower in the wake of a 4-session climb, struggling to hold on to a psychologically significant level at $1300 & poised for their largest one-day decline in 2 weeks. Jun gold fell $11.90 (0.9%) at $1302 an ounce. The metal settled at $1313 yesterday, the highest finish for a most-active contract since Mar 26. The precious metal scored a 4th straight advance, marking the commodity's longest win streak since a 5-session rise ended Jan 31. Gold has climbed by more than 1% this week as concerns over an economic slowdown fueled demand for assets perceived as havens. Among recent downgrades, the IMF this week cut its outlook for global economic growth, the 3rd cut in 6 months. Gold's vulnerability had emerged in electronic trading yesterday after the settlement, when prices moved lower following the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's Mat monetary policy meeting, which packed no surprises. The minutes showed that the Fed's decision in Mar to cease raising interest rates this year was driven by unease over the US & global economies and surprisingly subdued inflation.
Financial markets are sending worrisome signals about the US economic outlook & the Federal Reserve needs to “tread carefully” to keep the economy growing, a policymaker at the central bank said. St Louis Federal Reserve Pres James Bullard said two particularly important signals were coming in the form of yields on different US federal debt securities & on investor bets on the inflation outlook. Bullard, who has a vote this year on the Fed's rate-setting FOMC, released slides for a presentation at a community development event in Tupelo, Mississippi. “These market-based signals indicate that the FOMC needs to tread carefully going forward in order to sustain the economic expansion,” according to one of the slides. Bullard said in the slides that policymakers need to take seriously the possibility of a prolonged period in which interest rates are lower for short-term gov debt than for long-term debt could signal a recession. Market observers pay attention to numerous spreads between different Treasury securities. Bullard said in his slides that some parts of the yield curve are already inverted. Indeed, currently yields the 3-year & 5-year Treasury notes are lower than those on 2-year notes and Treasury bills. Bullard also noted that investors appear to be betting that inflation will fall short of the Fed's 2% target rate in 2019 & also over the next 5 years.
Fed must ‘tread carefully’ given market signals on outlook: Bullard
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits in early Apr fell below 200K for the first time since 1969, the latest sign that an ebullient labor market remains an island of strength for a slower-growing US economy. Jobless claims, a rough measure of layoffs, fell 8K to 196K in last week, the gov said. The forecast called for a 210K reading. The decline in jobless claims follows closely on the heels of gov report showing a rebound in job creation in Mar after a near-hiring freeze in February. The US added 196K new jobs last month. Jobless claims have fallen 4 weeks in a row to the lowest level in 50 years, just a few months after spiking to as high as 244K. The more stable monthly average of claims, meanwhile, declined 7K to 207K, also the lowest mark since 1969. The last time jobless claims were as low as they are now, the working population in the US was far smaller & the economy looked much different. While changing eligibility standards & other differences in the claims report over time make comparisons with past periods difficult, the low level of layoffs is still quite remarkable. The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, known as continuing claims, fell 13K to 1.71M.
This is another sleepy day for stocks without much happening. The first earnings from banks are coming shortly which will be followed by the reports from corps. Traders are nervous about what they will see. Meanwhile, hopes for a major trade deal are preventing the bears from taking control of the stock market.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 64.11 | -0.50 | -0.8% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,301.70 | -12.20 | -0.9% |
The US is economy likely slowing from its strong rate of growth in 2018, with “important international risks” clouding the outlook, Federal Reserve vice chair Richard Clarida said. This summer, 10 years after the US emerged from a punishing recession, “the current economic expansion almost certainly will become the longest on record,” said Clarida, vouching for the economy's continued ability to grow. “That said, the incoming data have revealed signs that U.S. economic growth is slowing somewhat from 2018s robust pace,” Clarida said in remarks prepared for delivery at the Institute of International Finance policy summit. “Prospects for foreign economic growth have been marked down, and important international risks, such as Brexit, remain,” Clarida added, referring to Britain's presumed departure at some point from the EU. Coupled with “muted” inflation, Clarida said that outlook justified the Fed's current policy stance, with rates roughly at a level that neither encourages nor discourages investment & spending, & a “patient” approach to any further rate moves. The Fed has put further rate moves on hold as it assesses the degree to which economic growth is slowing & how major overseas economies fare in coming months.
Fed's Clarida: US slowing, but expansion will 'almost certainly' break record
Gold prices moved lower in the wake of a 4-session climb, struggling to hold on to a psychologically significant level at $1300 & poised for their largest one-day decline in 2 weeks. Jun gold fell $11.90 (0.9%) at $1302 an ounce. The metal settled at $1313 yesterday, the highest finish for a most-active contract since Mar 26. The precious metal scored a 4th straight advance, marking the commodity's longest win streak since a 5-session rise ended Jan 31. Gold has climbed by more than 1% this week as concerns over an economic slowdown fueled demand for assets perceived as havens. Among recent downgrades, the IMF this week cut its outlook for global economic growth, the 3rd cut in 6 months. Gold's vulnerability had emerged in electronic trading yesterday after the settlement, when prices moved lower following the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's Mat monetary policy meeting, which packed no surprises. The minutes showed that the Fed's decision in Mar to cease raising interest rates this year was driven by unease over the US & global economies and surprisingly subdued inflation.
Gold prices fall, struggle to hold above $1,300 after 4-session climb
Financial markets are sending worrisome signals about the US economic outlook & the Federal Reserve needs to “tread carefully” to keep the economy growing, a policymaker at the central bank said. St Louis Federal Reserve Pres James Bullard said two particularly important signals were coming in the form of yields on different US federal debt securities & on investor bets on the inflation outlook. Bullard, who has a vote this year on the Fed's rate-setting FOMC, released slides for a presentation at a community development event in Tupelo, Mississippi. “These market-based signals indicate that the FOMC needs to tread carefully going forward in order to sustain the economic expansion,” according to one of the slides. Bullard said in the slides that policymakers need to take seriously the possibility of a prolonged period in which interest rates are lower for short-term gov debt than for long-term debt could signal a recession. Market observers pay attention to numerous spreads between different Treasury securities. Bullard said in his slides that some parts of the yield curve are already inverted. Indeed, currently yields the 3-year & 5-year Treasury notes are lower than those on 2-year notes and Treasury bills. Bullard also noted that investors appear to be betting that inflation will fall short of the Fed's 2% target rate in 2019 & also over the next 5 years.
Fed must ‘tread carefully’ given market signals on outlook: Bullard
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits in early Apr fell below 200K for the first time since 1969, the latest sign that an ebullient labor market remains an island of strength for a slower-growing US economy. Jobless claims, a rough measure of layoffs, fell 8K to 196K in last week, the gov said. The forecast called for a 210K reading. The decline in jobless claims follows closely on the heels of gov report showing a rebound in job creation in Mar after a near-hiring freeze in February. The US added 196K new jobs last month. Jobless claims have fallen 4 weeks in a row to the lowest level in 50 years, just a few months after spiking to as high as 244K. The more stable monthly average of claims, meanwhile, declined 7K to 207K, also the lowest mark since 1969. The last time jobless claims were as low as they are now, the working population in the US was far smaller & the economy looked much different. While changing eligibility standards & other differences in the claims report over time make comparisons with past periods difficult, the low level of layoffs is still quite remarkable. The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, known as continuing claims, fell 13K to 1.71M.
Jobless claims sink below 200,000 for first time since 1969
This is another sleepy day for stocks without much happening. The first earnings from banks are coming shortly which will be followed by the reports from corps. Traders are nervous about what they will see. Meanwhile, hopes for a major trade deal are preventing the bears from taking control of the stock market.
Dow Jones Industrials
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