Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Markets edge higher ahead of Fed minutes and earnings

Dow was off 22, advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ went up 27.  The MLP index was even in the 255s & the REIT index bounced back 1+ to 381.  Junk bond funds were little changed & Treasuries rose in price.  Oil crawled higher in the 64s & gold added 2 to 1311.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil64.45
+0.47+0.7%

GC=FGold   1,309.60
+1.30+0.1%







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US consumer prices increased by the most in 14 months in Mar, but underlying inflation remained benign against the backdrop of slowing domestic & global economic growth.  The tame inflation environment &ing economic activity support the Federal Reserve's decision last month to suspend its three-year campaign to raise interest rates.  The central bank dropped projections for any rate hikes this year after lifting borrowing costs 4 times in 2018.  The Labor Dept said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.4%, boosted by increases in the costs of food, gasoline & rents.  That was the biggest advance since Jan 2018 & followed a 0.2%  gain in Feb.  In the 12 months thru Mar, the CPI increased 1.9%.  The CPI gained 1.5% in Feb, which was the smallest rise since Sep 2016.  The forecast called for the CPI climbing 0.3% in Mar & accelerating 1.8% year-on-year.  Excluding the volatile food & energy components, the CPI nudged up 0.1%, matching Feb's gain.  In the 12 months thru Mar, the core CPI increased 2.0%, the smallest advance since Feb 2018.  Core CPI rose 2.1% year-on-year in Feb.  The Fed, which has a 2% inflation target, tracks a different measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, for monetary policy.  The core PCE price index increased 1.8% on a year-on-year basis in Jan after a rising 2.0% in Dec.  It hit the Fed's 2% inflation target in Mar last year for the first time since Apr 2012.  The $ was little changed against a basket of currencies after the CPI data, while Treasury prices rose slightly.  US stock index futures were trading higher.  Inflation has remained muted, with wage growth increasing moderately despite tightening labor market conditions.   In a statement accompanying last month's interest rate decision, the central bank described inflation as having “declined” on an annual basis “as a result of lower energy prices.”

Rising gasoline prices and rents boost US consumer prices in March

European leaders will decide later today whether to grant the UK another extension to its departure from the bloc, due to take place on Fri.  The EU's 28 leaders, including British Prime Minister Theresa May, are heading to Brussels for an emergency summit dedicated to Brexit.  This after May asked the bloc for a 2nd delay to the UK's departure.  She will formally present her case for requesting a short delay to Brexit until Jun 30, asking for the option to leave if a deal is agreed by the UK Parliament before then.  It's widely expected that the UK will be granted a longer, flexible extension with conditions attached, however, according to an invitation letter sent to EU leaders by European Council President Donald Tusk on Tuesday.  “I believe we should also discuss an alternative, longer extension. One possibility would be a flexible extension, which would last only as long as necessary and no longer than one year,” Tusk said in his letter.  He called for a longer delay to avoid “the risk of a rolling series of short extensions and emergency summits, creating new cliff-edge dates.”  Conditions that the UK could have to abide by, Tusk noted, would include no re-opening of negotiations over the withdrawal agreement (the Brexit deal) on offer.  The UK could leave earlier than a newly agreed departure date if a deal is in place & Tusk reiterated that the UK could revoke Article 50 (the departure process) at any time.  A draft EU document circulated to diplomats ahead of the emergency meeting of EU leaders proposes an extension but leaves the date blank.  It also notes that an extension cannot be used to undermine the EU or to start trade talks.

Brexit summit: EU expected to grant UK extension with strings at…

A bipartisan group of lawmakers plan to introduce a bill to expand federal tax credits for buyers of electric vehicles, in what could be a boon for the growing EV market.  The existing $7500 tax credit for buyers of EVs phases out over 15 months once an automaker sells 200K electric cars.  The bill dubbed the Driving America Forward Act would grant each automaker a $7K tax credit for an additional 400K vehicles on top of the existing 200K vehicles eligible for $7500 tax credits & would shorten the phase-out schedule to 9 months.  The bill is sponsored by Dem Senators Debbie Stabenow & Gary Peters, Rep Senators Lamar Alexander & Susan Collins & Dem Representative Dan Kildee.  Electric vehicles comprise a tiny but growing share of the US vehicle market.  Support for low- & no-emissions vehicles has grown both in the US & in other major automotive markets, such as China.

US lawmakers begin push to expand federal electric vehicle tax credit

The Dow was lower, hurt by more selling in Boeing (BA).  The stock is down 3+ today & almost 80 from its record high in early Mar.  Fed minutes may not be a major market mover, but earnings have that potential.  And the outlook for earnings is not encouraging,

Dow Jones Industrials








 

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