Monday, April 8, 2019

Markets edge lower on worries about earnings season

Dow dropped 97, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ fell 15.  The MLP index was fractionally higher to the 259s & the REIT index fell 2+ to 381.  Junk bond funds were mixed following a strong week.& Treasuries drifted lower in price.  Oil jumped up 1 to the 64s & gold rose 8 to 1304.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil63.86
+0.78+1.2%

GC=FGold   1,305.10
+9.50+0.7%







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Stocks fell as traders digested strong gains from the previous week & looked ahead to the start of the corp earnings season.  The Dow  declined 155 & the S&P 500 pulled back 0.3% as the industrial sector dipped 0.8%.  NAZ slipped 0.4%.  The declines comes after the major stock indices posted their 2nd consecutive weekly gains last week, boosted by progress on the US-China trade front & strong jobs data.  Pres Trump said Thurs “we’ll know over the next four weeks” whether a deal between the 2 countries can be reached.  On Fri, the Labor Dept reported that 196K jobs were created in Mar.  Traders expect earnings season to be a tough one.  Q1 S&P 500 earnings are expected to have fallen 4.2% on a year-over-year basis, the first earnings contraction for the S&P 500 since the Q2-2016.

Dow falls more than 150 points, Boeing slides on downgrade

Reps gave tax cuts to 2/3 of households, but many of those people are barely noticing a difference in their bottom lines, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.  Just 17% of respondents said they are paying less in taxes under the new law, while 28% say they’re paying more. The rest either say they don’'t know or that their taxes have barely changed.  Those numbers mirror last year's poll data, suggesting that the experience of filing the first tax returns under the new law hasn't made much of a difference in whether people think they're winning or losing.  According to recent data from the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation: For 2019, 48% of households are getting a tax cut greater than $500, compared with what they would have paid under the old tax law.  Just 5.5% of households face tax increases greater than $100.

New WSJ/NBC poll shows people are not noticing Trump’s tax cuts


Factory orders in the US fell in Feb for the 4th time in 5 months, reflecting a slowdown in the economy that began late in 2018 & carried on through the early part of the new year.  Orders dropped 0.5% in the month, the gov said.  The forecast called for a 0.4% decline.  There are some signs that business might be re-accelerating as spring gets underway, but more evidence is needed.  Orders for durable goods, products meant to last at least 3 years, fell by an unrevised 1.6% in Feb.  These products include autos, airplanes, appliances, computers, etc.  Orders for nondurable goods such as clothes, paper & processed foods rose 0.6% & they account for about ½ of all factory orders.  A closely followed gauge of business investment, known as core orders for durable goods, fell slightly after falling in 3 of the past 4 months.   Manufacturers are still expanding, but they've turned more cautious since last summer.  US trade tensions with China, a weaker global economy & stronger $ have combined to dampen demand & force businesses to reevaluate their plans.  The manufacturing segment is still influential enough to act as a drag on growth, but the service side of the economy is much larger & it’s expanding a bit faster.  The US is still on track to set a record for largest expansion ever by early summer.

U.S. factory orders fall for the fourth time in five months, reflecting economic slowdown


Caterpillar (CAT), a Dow stock, wants to steady its boom-&-bust business with more sales of parts & repairs.  To drum up the new revenue, CAT is connecting machinery to the cloud & alerting miners & builders when they need a tuneup or a new tire.  The company has said that helps customers get the most out of equipment like its huge mining trucks that can cost more than a $ dollars.  The stock fell 98¢.
If you would like to learn more about CAT, click on this linke:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CAT?a_aid=CD3829&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Caterpillar Digs for New Services Revenue


Traders are anxious about earnings season which begins this week.  Boeing (BA), down 15, is a big drag on the Dow after a negative analyst recommendation.  The chart below shows the Dow has had a good run this year, but that is not being supported by strong economic data (such as factory orders shown above).  At the same time, US-China talks are dragging on.  Apr is shaping up as a difficult month for stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials








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