Dow crawled up 6, advancers over decliners 3-1 & NAZ went up 54. The MLP index lost a fraction to the 254s (continuing its longer term sideways trend this year) & the REIT index gained 3+ to the 382s for another record high. Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries continued to be purchased. Oil was higher in the 64s & gold gained 4 to 1312.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the US & China are making progress on a trade deal, including resolving a key sticking point that’s been dragging out the process. “We’ve pretty much agreed on an enforcement mechanism. We’ve agreed that both sides will establish enforcement offices that will deal with the ongoing matters. This is something both sides are taking very seriously,” Mnuchin said. “We are really focused on the execution of the documents.” Mnuchin declined to comment on whether the US will use tariffs as an enforcement tool. Pres Donald Trump has previously said his administration’s tariffs on $250B in Chinese goods could stay in place even after the 2 countries strike a deal. China has pushed for the removal of duties as part of an agreement. The secretary revealed that the meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He yesterday was “productive.” “We went into late last night, and we have another call scheduled for tomorrow morning ... we still have some important issues to address, but both sides are working very hard on this agreement,” Mnuchin added. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer & Mnuchin are negotiating with Chinese representatives to work up a long-term trade deal with China. The world's 2 largest economies have imposed tariffs on hundreds of B$ of goods. Trump said last week that a trade deal may be reached in 4 weeks, but Munchin said there isn't a specific timeline. “We are hopeful we can do this quickly, but we are not going to set an arbitrary deadline,” Mnuchin said. “If we can complete this agreement, this will be the most significant changes to the economic relationship between the U.S. and China in really the last 40 years. The opening of the Chinese economy will be a tremendous opportunity with structural changes that will benefit U.S. workers and U.S. companies.”
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says US and China have agreed on the trade deal enforcement mechanism
The US gov ran a budget deficit of $147B in Mar, according to the Treasury Dept, which was smaller than the $209B recorded in the same month a year ago. In Mar spending fell 10% & receipts rose 9%. The gov took in $229B in receipts in Mar while it spent $376B. Individual withheld & payroll taxes rose by $8B for the month, helping to boost overall receipts. Meanwhile individual income tax refunds fell by $6B, giving a further lift to receipts. Corp taxes rose $2B. Under the Rep tax law, both households & corps got tax cuts. Spending fell on most gov programs, including defense, education & veterans affairs. While the federal gov's budget shortfall narrowed in Mar, it's 15% wider for the fiscal year to date, at $691B. The gov's fiscal year runs thru Sep, & for the full year, the Congressional Budget Office is estimating a shortfall of $897B, up from $779B the year before. As the deficit is projected to rise & the national debt has topped $22T, some in DC are calling for a balanced-budget amendment. But that call, from a coalition of moderate House Dems, is seen going nowhere with the White House & Senate Reps showing little interest in trying to balance the budget.
Ford (F) issued a safety recall for about 327K trucks over potential issues with the vehicles that can lead to overheating or fires. The announcement affects Ford F-150 trucks from 2015-2019 & Super Duty vehicles from 2017-2019 that were inspected & serviced after a separate Dec recall spurred by potential fire concerns. The most recent safety notification addresses potential damage to the engine block heater cable splice connectors. Such cables are used to keep trucks warmer in the winter to make ignition easier. The connector, Ford say, may have “inadvertently become damaged” during service. “Dealers will disable the vehicle’s engine block heater cable by cutting off the plug end prongs and sealing the end cap with silicone sealant. Customers will be notified when an engine block replacement cable is available,” the company said. The stock rose 12¢.
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/F?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
Ford issues recall for 327,000 previously serviced F-150, Super Duty trucks
This was an uneventful day for stocks. As expected, the Fed minutes did not provide excitement. The next big event for the market will be earnings, unless there is a breakthrough on the trade deals being negotiated. The Dow is hanging in above 26K & techs were back in demand today. But it will need an outside stimulus to bring out more buyers needed to bid up prices for a new record.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Federal Reserve officials largely approved a patient approach
to monetary policy in 2019 during their 2-day Mar meeting, but
suggested that if the economy improves, more interest rate hikes could
be on the horizon. At the same meeting,
policymakers at the central bank unanimously voted to keep the
benchmark federal funds rate steady in a target range of 2.25-2.5%. The Fed also signaled there will be no additional hikes
for the remainder of 2019 because of concerns about slowing global
growth. Although a majority of policymakers anticipated
they would leave the target range unchanged in 2019, many stressed that
their decisions about the appropriate range for interest rates depended
on the economic outlook, as well as potential risks to that outlook,
according to minutes of the March meeting. “With
regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond this meeting, a
majority of participants expected that the evolution of the economic
outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving the target
range unchanged for the remainder of the year,” the minutes said. At
the same time, committee members suggested that if the economic outlook
improves this year, which a majority said they expected, additional
interest rate hikes may be warranted. "Some
participants indicated that if the economy evolved as they currently
expected, with economic growth above its longer-run trend rate, they
would likely judge it appropriate to raise the target range for the
federal funds rate modestly later this year," the minutes said. Since
officials last met, Pres Trump has urged the central bank, which
he blames for slowing down economic growth, to "drop rates and get
rid of quantitative tightening." Trump has been a harsh critic of the
interest rate policy set forward by the Fed & has attempted to
influence the monetary policy. In addition to
that, the pres has said that he will appoint Herman Cain, the
former Rep presidential candidate, & Stephen Moore, a
conservative economic analyst & frequent Fed critic, to the central
bank's 7-member board. If nominated & approved, Moore & Cain
would fill the 2 remaining vacancies on the board.
Fed minutes reaffirm patient approach to interest rates in 2019
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the US & China are making progress on a trade deal, including resolving a key sticking point that’s been dragging out the process. “We’ve pretty much agreed on an enforcement mechanism. We’ve agreed that both sides will establish enforcement offices that will deal with the ongoing matters. This is something both sides are taking very seriously,” Mnuchin said. “We are really focused on the execution of the documents.” Mnuchin declined to comment on whether the US will use tariffs as an enforcement tool. Pres Donald Trump has previously said his administration’s tariffs on $250B in Chinese goods could stay in place even after the 2 countries strike a deal. China has pushed for the removal of duties as part of an agreement. The secretary revealed that the meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He yesterday was “productive.” “We went into late last night, and we have another call scheduled for tomorrow morning ... we still have some important issues to address, but both sides are working very hard on this agreement,” Mnuchin added. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer & Mnuchin are negotiating with Chinese representatives to work up a long-term trade deal with China. The world's 2 largest economies have imposed tariffs on hundreds of B$ of goods. Trump said last week that a trade deal may be reached in 4 weeks, but Munchin said there isn't a specific timeline. “We are hopeful we can do this quickly, but we are not going to set an arbitrary deadline,” Mnuchin said. “If we can complete this agreement, this will be the most significant changes to the economic relationship between the U.S. and China in really the last 40 years. The opening of the Chinese economy will be a tremendous opportunity with structural changes that will benefit U.S. workers and U.S. companies.”
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says US and China have agreed on the trade deal enforcement mechanism
The US gov ran a budget deficit of $147B in Mar, according to the Treasury Dept, which was smaller than the $209B recorded in the same month a year ago. In Mar spending fell 10% & receipts rose 9%. The gov took in $229B in receipts in Mar while it spent $376B. Individual withheld & payroll taxes rose by $8B for the month, helping to boost overall receipts. Meanwhile individual income tax refunds fell by $6B, giving a further lift to receipts. Corp taxes rose $2B. Under the Rep tax law, both households & corps got tax cuts. Spending fell on most gov programs, including defense, education & veterans affairs. While the federal gov's budget shortfall narrowed in Mar, it's 15% wider for the fiscal year to date, at $691B. The gov's fiscal year runs thru Sep, & for the full year, the Congressional Budget Office is estimating a shortfall of $897B, up from $779B the year before. As the deficit is projected to rise & the national debt has topped $22T, some in DC are calling for a balanced-budget amendment. But that call, from a coalition of moderate House Dems, is seen going nowhere with the White House & Senate Reps showing little interest in trying to balance the budget.
Federal budget deficit narrows in March
Ford (F) issued a safety recall for about 327K trucks over potential issues with the vehicles that can lead to overheating or fires. The announcement affects Ford F-150 trucks from 2015-2019 & Super Duty vehicles from 2017-2019 that were inspected & serviced after a separate Dec recall spurred by potential fire concerns. The most recent safety notification addresses potential damage to the engine block heater cable splice connectors. Such cables are used to keep trucks warmer in the winter to make ignition easier. The connector, Ford say, may have “inadvertently become damaged” during service. “Dealers will disable the vehicle’s engine block heater cable by cutting off the plug end prongs and sealing the end cap with silicone sealant. Customers will be notified when an engine block replacement cable is available,” the company said. The stock rose 12¢.
Ford issues recall for 327,000 previously serviced F-150, Super Duty trucks
This was an uneventful day for stocks. As expected, the Fed minutes did not provide excitement. The next big event for the market will be earnings, unless there is a breakthrough on the trade deals being negotiated. The Dow is hanging in above 26K & techs were back in demand today. But it will need an outside stimulus to bring out more buyers needed to bid up prices for a new record.
Dow Jones Industrials
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