Dow rose 168, advancers over decliners about 3-2 & NAZ fell 2 after recent strength. The MLP index inched higher in the 257s & the REIT index was off 1+ to 380 (still in record territory). Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries crawled higher in price. Oil slipped back to the 61s & gold retreated 6 to 1288.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Jobless claims drop to lowest level since 1969
“Companies appear to be streamlining and updating their processes, and workforce reductions are increasingly becoming a part of these decisions, ” Andrew Challenger, VP at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said. “Consumer behavior and advances in technology are driving many of these cuts.” The news comes amid conflicting signs for employment. Nonfarm payrolls growth surged by 311K in Jan but then slumped to just 20K the following month. Still, the unemployment rate is just 3.8%, near the lowest level in 50 years. The forecast for tomorrow's Labor Dept report on payrolls will show growth of 175K & the unemployment rate to stay unchanged. But there have been cracks lately that suggest the jobs climate is beginning to turn. For instance, private payrolls grew by just 129K in Mar, an 18-month low, according to a report yesterday from ADP & Moody’s Analytics. The Challenger report pointed to worries about an economic slowdown as being a main driver in the layoff intentions. The auto industry led by sector in Mar with 8K layoffs, followed by energy with 8K job cuts. Financial firms were next with 5K, while retail followed with 5K. Retail has announced 46K cuts this year, an 18.5% decrease from Q1-2018. “Several indications, such as the number of companies filing for bankruptcy or closing operations, suggest we’re heading for a downturn. The recent proposal to close the southern border adds to the uncertainty and may contribute to more cuts as companies try to adapt,” Challenger said.
Job layoffs surge 35% to highest level to start a year in a decade
Pres Trump said a trade deal with China is “moving along nicely” as talks continued in DC & kept up his criticism of the Federal Reserve's policies. Trump commented on the China talks before a scheduled meeting with Vice Premier Liu He, who has been negotiating with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin & Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. Trump's China-deal remark came in a longer tweet about the US economy, which he said was “looking very strong” in spite of what he called the “unnecessary and destructive actions” taken by the Federal Reserve. It was his latest criticism of the central bank. In a recent interview, Trump said if it weren’t for the decisions of Chairman Jerome Powell & his colleagues, the US economy would have expanded above a 4% annual rate last year. Trump still livid with Fed despite central bank's dovish policy shift. Trump also characterized the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement as proceeding “nicely,” even as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi earlier this week poured cold water on the idea of a speedy vote. She said Tues the House wouldn't consider the deal to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement until after Mexico puts labor-law reforms in place.
The stock market is awaiting news on the trade talks. It looks like progress is being made, although it is difficult for investors (& negotiators) to fully understand what is going on. If a final agreement looks good, stock averages should rocket ahead to new records. Meanwhile nervous investors are anxious.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 62.31 | -0.15 | -0.2% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,292.70 | -2.60 | -0.2% |
The number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in ½ a century, the latest sign of a tight labor market. Initial
jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs across the US, decreased by
10K to a seasonally adjusted 202K last week, the
Labor Dept said. That was the lowest level for initial claims since
1969, when the US workforce & population were much smaller
than they are today. The forecast called for 218K new claims. The 4-week moving average of claims, a steadier measure, fell last week by 4K to 213K. The
report showed the number of claims workers made for longer than a week
decreased 38K to 1.7M. The figure,
also known as continuing claims, is reported with a one-week lag. Te
report suggests the labor market remains strong, leaving businesses
reluctant to let workers go. That has spurred some of the fastest wage
growth in the current business cycle. The
unemployment rate was 3.8% in Feb, although nonfarm payrolls rose
just 20K, adjusted for seasonality, the Labor Dept said in
early Mar.
Jobless claims drop to lowest level since 1969
“Companies appear to be streamlining and updating their processes, and workforce reductions are increasingly becoming a part of these decisions, ” Andrew Challenger, VP at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said. “Consumer behavior and advances in technology are driving many of these cuts.” The news comes amid conflicting signs for employment. Nonfarm payrolls growth surged by 311K in Jan but then slumped to just 20K the following month. Still, the unemployment rate is just 3.8%, near the lowest level in 50 years. The forecast for tomorrow's Labor Dept report on payrolls will show growth of 175K & the unemployment rate to stay unchanged. But there have been cracks lately that suggest the jobs climate is beginning to turn. For instance, private payrolls grew by just 129K in Mar, an 18-month low, according to a report yesterday from ADP & Moody’s Analytics. The Challenger report pointed to worries about an economic slowdown as being a main driver in the layoff intentions. The auto industry led by sector in Mar with 8K layoffs, followed by energy with 8K job cuts. Financial firms were next with 5K, while retail followed with 5K. Retail has announced 46K cuts this year, an 18.5% decrease from Q1-2018. “Several indications, such as the number of companies filing for bankruptcy or closing operations, suggest we’re heading for a downturn. The recent proposal to close the southern border adds to the uncertainty and may contribute to more cuts as companies try to adapt,” Challenger said.
Job layoffs surge 35% to highest level to start a year in a decade
Pres Trump said a trade deal with China is “moving along nicely” as talks continued in DC & kept up his criticism of the Federal Reserve's policies. Trump commented on the China talks before a scheduled meeting with Vice Premier Liu He, who has been negotiating with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin & Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. Trump's China-deal remark came in a longer tweet about the US economy, which he said was “looking very strong” in spite of what he called the “unnecessary and destructive actions” taken by the Federal Reserve. It was his latest criticism of the central bank. In a recent interview, Trump said if it weren’t for the decisions of Chairman Jerome Powell & his colleagues, the US economy would have expanded above a 4% annual rate last year. Trump still livid with Fed despite central bank's dovish policy shift. Trump also characterized the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement as proceeding “nicely,” even as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi earlier this week poured cold water on the idea of a speedy vote. She said Tues the House wouldn't consider the deal to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement until after Mexico puts labor-law reforms in place.
Trump Today: President says China talks going ‘nicely’ as sticking points said to remain
The stock market is awaiting news on the trade talks. It looks like progress is being made, although it is difficult for investors (& negotiators) to fully understand what is going on. If a final agreement looks good, stock averages should rocket ahead to new records. Meanwhile nervous investors are anxious.
Dow Jones Industrials
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