Thursday, April 25, 2019

Markets retreat on weak earnings reports

Dow dropped 134 (but off AM lows), decliners over advancers about 2-1 & NAZ gained 16 (essentially at its record high).  The MLP index slid back fractionally to the 253s & the REIT index was little changed in the 376s.  Junk bond funds went lower & Treasuries pulled back in PM trading.  Oil fell to 65 & gold was flattish at a depressed 1279 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Comcast (CMCSA) reported Q1 earnings that surpassed expectations, but revenue fell short.  Closely watched data on new high-speed internet customers beat projections.  Adjusted EPS was 76¢ vs 68¢ expected & revenue was $26.86B vs $27.2B expected.  High-speed internet customers: 375K vs 353K net adds expected.  The company expects up to 100 basis points of year over year margin improvement for the full year, raising its original guidance of up to 50 basis points of improvement in 2019.  The revenue miss was due in part to the difficulty in comparing this qtr with last year, which included the coverage of the Winter Olympics & Super Bowl.  CMCSA had beaten estimates on the top & bottom lines for the last 2 qtrs & has seen its stock rise 25% over the past 12 months.  “I think across the board, when you adjust out for the Super Bowl and the Olympics, [it’s] pretty much exactly what we expected on the revenue side, at least internally,” CEO Brian Roberts said.  This qtr reflected its best quarterly EBITDA cable growth in over 10 years with a 9.8% increase to $5.7B.  The increase reflects higher revenue despite a 0.8% increase in operating expenses.  The stock went up 1.08.
If you would like to learn more about CMCSA, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/CMCSA?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Comcast earnings beat estimates but sales fall short, high speed internet revenue up 10%

United Parcel Service (UPS) reported that Q1 profit fell 17% as revenue was flat from a year ago & the package-delivery company ran into higher spending to cope with a series of winter storms.  The results fell short of expectations.  UPS has been working to upgrade its network as the growth of online shopping puts more pressure on delivery speed.  Both ground & air shipping volumes grew during Q1, partly on high demand for faster delivery options.  Meeting that growth comes at a cost, however.  UPS took a $123M charge in the qtr for spending on its "transformation" plan to automate some operations & open new facilities.  UPS forecast that Q2 EPS would be flat with the same period last year because of pension-financing costs.  But it cited those new, more highly automated sorting hubs for reason to stand by its forecast of full-year EPS of $7.45-7.52.  Analysts had expected $7.52.  Last year almost all the company's new facilities opened in Q4, but this year 30% will be in Q2 — soon enough to boost earnings in H2.  EPS adjusted to exclude transformation spending were $1.39, compared with the forecast of $1.42.  Revenue was flat at $17.16B & below the prediction of $17.77B.  Operating profit in the domestic shipping business dropped $90M (12% ) despite a 2.5% increase in revenue.  $80M of the decline was due to bad weather.  UPS is targeting online shopping, health care & small businesses in a bid to boost its US operation.  Overseas, operating profit fell 11% on 2% less revenue.  CEO David Abney said uncertainty amid trade tension between the US & China was leading to "softer industry forecasts in the region," & the company is assuming that global economic growth will be slower than last year, another drag on the package-delivery business.  The stock tumbled 9.30 (8%).
If you would like to learn more about UPS, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/UPS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

UPS falls short of forecasts on bad weather, costs


US oil prices headed lower for a 2nd session in a row, but Brent prices were on track for a 5th-consecutive rise as traders considered the likelihood that major producers will increase supply in response to tougher US action against Iran's oil market.  US West Texas Intermediate crude for Jun delivery was down 15¢ to $65.74 a barrel after a loss of 0.6% yesterday.  WTI yesterday scratched $66.30, the highest settlement for a front-month contract since Oct 29.  Jun Brent crude, the global benchmark, tacked on 29¢ (0.4%) at $74.86 a barrel, poised for another settlement at the highest since late Oct.  Front-month contract prices for the global benchmark, tacked on 29¢ (0.4%) at $74.86 a barrel.  Front-month contract prices for the global benchmark climbed in each of the previous 4 sessions.  Meanwhile, Brent prices today got an added lift from news that Poland & Germany suspended imports of crude via the Druzhba pipeline, the world's longest oil pipeline, citing contamination.  About 700K barrels a day of the pipeline's 1M-barrel a day capacity was suspended.  WTI oil futures on yesterday had declined on the back of a hefty gain in weekly US crude stockpiles, Brent oil futures managed to finish a few ¢s higher in that session.  The Energy Information Administration yesterday reported that US crude supplies rose 5.5M barrels for the week ended Apr 19.  Analysts also had expected a decline.  Crude's multiday rise had come on the heels the US decision to end waivers for countries importing Iranian oil, as part of a bid by the Trump administration to push Iran's exports to zero.  The current waivers expire on May 2.  Chatter has included speculation that tighter sanctions against Iran & separately, Venezuela, could trigger an end to the production-cut agreement among members and select nonmembers of OPEC.  That deal, in which OPEC & its allies agreed to cut production by 1.2M barrels a day, expires in Jun.

U.S. oil prices fall a 2nd session; Brent climbs on Iran-pegged supply worries

Gold futures tallied back-to-back gains, but found only modest support for the session against a backdrop of mixed trading in the US stock market on the heels of the latest earnings reports & economic data.  Gold for Jun delivery tacked on 30¢ to settle at $1279 an ounce.  The most-active contract settled at its lowest levels since Dec 26 on Tues before a 0.5% rebound on yesterday.  Data today showed that US durable-goods orders leapt 2.7% last month, the biggest increase since last summer, potentially signaling a rebound in the slower-growing industrial side of the economy.

Gold prices tally a second straight gain but hover near lows of the year

Stocks had a tough day after recent buying.  Buyers returned at midday to limit losses.  Tech stocks did well, responding to better reports.   However the declines by 3M (MMM), a Dow stock, (down 28) & UPS have to worry the bulls.

Dow Jones Industrials









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