Dow fell 79, decliners a little ahead of advancers & NAZ gained 19. The MLP index rose fractionally to the 258s & the REIT index was about even in the 379s (in record territory). Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries remained higher. Oil was up 1+ to the 62s (highest since Nov) & gold rose 1 to 1295.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Lagarde: Global economy is in ‘a delicate moment’ and ‘losing momentum’
Major automakers reported weak sales for Mar & the Q1 citing a rough start to the year, but said a robust economy & strong labor market should encourage consumers to buy more vehicles as 2019 rolls on. Passenger car sales suffered throughout Q1 versus the same period in 2018 as Americans continued to abandon them in favor or larger, more comfortable &, for automakers, far more profitable pickup trucks & SUVs. The battle for market share in the particularly lucrative large pickup truck market intensified in the qtr, as Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) Ram brand outsold #1 US automaker General Motors (GM) Chevrolet brand trucks. The 2 automakers have both launched redesigned pickup trucks. For decades Ford (F) has had the single best-selling truck brand in its F-Series trucks, with the Chevy brand a solid #2 & Ram a distant 3rd. Overall, US new vehicle sales are expected to decline in 2019 after a long bull run since the end of the recession 10 years ago, led by falling passenger car sales. Competition in the high-margin SUV market is also intensifying. GM posted a 7% drop Q1 sales, with declines across all brands. Sales of the Silverado pickup trucks fell nearly 16% & the high-margin Chevy Suburban large SUV dropped 25%. FCAU reported a 7% fall in US sales in Mar & a 3% drop for the qtr. All of FCAU's brands dropped in Mar, except for Ram, which saw a 15% increase in pickup truck sales. “The industry had a tough first quarter but with spring finally starting to show its face and continued strong economic indicators... we are confident that new vehicle sales demand will strengthen going forward,” FCA’s US head of sales Reid Bigland said. Toyota (TM) reported a 3.5% fall in US sales in Mar & 5% for Q1, hurt by declining demand for its Corolla sedans & Camry vehicles. “While some of our competitors are abandoning sedans, we remain optimistic about the future of the segment,” Toyota said. Nissan Motor posted a 5.3% drop in sales in Mar & its Q1 sales were down 11.6%. Industry consultants JD Power & LMC Automotive have predicted a 2.1% drop in US auto sales in Mar, partly due to bad weather, mixed economic data & lower tax refunds.
U.S. March, first-quarter auto sales drop
When the US escalated the trade war by slapping tariffs on $200B in Chinese goods last Sep, China's economy was struggling & its stock market was in a deep slide, giving the US a seeming advantage in a trans-Pacific trade rift. But months later, the US has lost some of that edge. China's Shanghai stock market has surged more than 27% in 2019 & the best performer of major markets globally, while China's economy is finally showing early signs of stabilizing. When the Sep tariffs were announced, Pres Trump was seen as emboldened by the best 2 qtrs of more than 3% US growth in years & a stock market that was hitting all-time highs. While the US is still seen as having an advantage, economic growth has faltered, to a below trend 1.5% pace in Q1. The US stock market is also trying to recapture those 2018 highs, despite strong gains after Dec's sharp selloff. Trade friction & tariffs have put a dent in both economies, & show up in record trade deficits between the US & China. But China's wobbling economy may be perking up. Manufacturing data this week showed that activity was expanding again. Strategists say the role of the stock market has become an important factor in trade negotiations, after the 14% dive in the S&P 500 in Q4 & the 25% decline in Shanghai stocks for all of 2018. The US stock market bottomed in the final week of Dec & shortly after Trump announced progress in talks with Beijing. Shanghai & US stocks have both moved mostly higher since then & the 2 sides have stayed at the negotiating table.
China’s stock market is up 27% this year, giving it new leverage in trade talks
The White House is looking for ways to limit the economic damage that will result if Pres Trump makes good on his recent threats to close the US-Mexico border, according to Larry Kudlow, the Director of the National Economic Council. Kudlow said that the Trump administration was exploring whether it could permit trucks carrying freight to cross the border if it is sealed. He cautioned that the pres has not made any final decisions. "We are watching it and looking for ways to allow the freight passage, some people call it truck roads, and there are ways you can do that which would ameliorate the breakdown in supply chains," Kudlow said. Kudlow supports Trump's immigration policies "fully." "The question is: Can we deal with that, and not have economic damage? And I think the answer is: We can, and people are looking at different options." "Particularly if you can keep those freight lanes, truck lanes, open, that's probably the nub of it," Kudlow added. Kudlow said that allowing workers to cross the border could be more difficult. "I don't want to comment on it because we are playing right now — what you want to do is stop the emergency and the breakdown, and you want to try to limit whatever harm that does," he said. "It's a very difficult task. I think it's doable." Trump, who has declared the border situation a national emergency, threatened Fri to shut down "the Border, or large sections of the Border," if Mexico does not "immediately stop ALL illegal immigration coming into the United States throug (sic) our Southern Border."
White House looking to keep truck lanes open if Trump closes U.S.-Mexico border, K…
Traders are waiting for news, but little was announced today. Stocks digested recent gains & tomorrow should bring more activity with Mar economic reports.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The global economy is in "a delicate moment," said IMF's managing director Christine Lagarde. "The growth is losing the momentum that
we had hoped for pretty much across the globe. We have 70 percent of
the economy that is slowing down," Lagarde said at the 13th Annual Capital Markets Summit. "The U.S. is not immune to the deceleration anymore." Lagarde noted there are clear downside risks including Brexit & China trade tensions that have affected business confidence. The markets have been sensitive to global economic data. Stocks posted a strong rally yesterday on strong manufacturing data out of the US & China after taking a
hit from weak retail sales & durable goods numbers in Mar. Adding to
the market volatility has been the news coming from the negotiations of
a trade deal between China & the US. "I'm still optimistic
[about a trade deal] and there are clear impetus for both sides to move
forward. It's vitally important," Lagarde said. She added based on IMF
research, if a 25% tariff increase was imposed, it would lead to
0.6% loss on US economic growth & 1.5% loss on the
Chinese economy. "Given that those are the
two big giants currently, if you have that kind of negative impact on
both, it would weigh heavily on the global economy and it would be bad,"
Lagarde said.
Lagarde: Global economy is in ‘a delicate moment’ and ‘losing momentum’
Major automakers reported weak sales for Mar & the Q1 citing a rough start to the year, but said a robust economy & strong labor market should encourage consumers to buy more vehicles as 2019 rolls on. Passenger car sales suffered throughout Q1 versus the same period in 2018 as Americans continued to abandon them in favor or larger, more comfortable &, for automakers, far more profitable pickup trucks & SUVs. The battle for market share in the particularly lucrative large pickup truck market intensified in the qtr, as Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) Ram brand outsold #1 US automaker General Motors (GM) Chevrolet brand trucks. The 2 automakers have both launched redesigned pickup trucks. For decades Ford (F) has had the single best-selling truck brand in its F-Series trucks, with the Chevy brand a solid #2 & Ram a distant 3rd. Overall, US new vehicle sales are expected to decline in 2019 after a long bull run since the end of the recession 10 years ago, led by falling passenger car sales. Competition in the high-margin SUV market is also intensifying. GM posted a 7% drop Q1 sales, with declines across all brands. Sales of the Silverado pickup trucks fell nearly 16% & the high-margin Chevy Suburban large SUV dropped 25%. FCAU reported a 7% fall in US sales in Mar & a 3% drop for the qtr. All of FCAU's brands dropped in Mar, except for Ram, which saw a 15% increase in pickup truck sales. “The industry had a tough first quarter but with spring finally starting to show its face and continued strong economic indicators... we are confident that new vehicle sales demand will strengthen going forward,” FCA’s US head of sales Reid Bigland said. Toyota (TM) reported a 3.5% fall in US sales in Mar & 5% for Q1, hurt by declining demand for its Corolla sedans & Camry vehicles. “While some of our competitors are abandoning sedans, we remain optimistic about the future of the segment,” Toyota said. Nissan Motor posted a 5.3% drop in sales in Mar & its Q1 sales were down 11.6%. Industry consultants JD Power & LMC Automotive have predicted a 2.1% drop in US auto sales in Mar, partly due to bad weather, mixed economic data & lower tax refunds.
U.S. March, first-quarter auto sales drop
When the US escalated the trade war by slapping tariffs on $200B in Chinese goods last Sep, China's economy was struggling & its stock market was in a deep slide, giving the US a seeming advantage in a trans-Pacific trade rift. But months later, the US has lost some of that edge. China's Shanghai stock market has surged more than 27% in 2019 & the best performer of major markets globally, while China's economy is finally showing early signs of stabilizing. When the Sep tariffs were announced, Pres Trump was seen as emboldened by the best 2 qtrs of more than 3% US growth in years & a stock market that was hitting all-time highs. While the US is still seen as having an advantage, economic growth has faltered, to a below trend 1.5% pace in Q1. The US stock market is also trying to recapture those 2018 highs, despite strong gains after Dec's sharp selloff. Trade friction & tariffs have put a dent in both economies, & show up in record trade deficits between the US & China. But China's wobbling economy may be perking up. Manufacturing data this week showed that activity was expanding again. Strategists say the role of the stock market has become an important factor in trade negotiations, after the 14% dive in the S&P 500 in Q4 & the 25% decline in Shanghai stocks for all of 2018. The US stock market bottomed in the final week of Dec & shortly after Trump announced progress in talks with Beijing. Shanghai & US stocks have both moved mostly higher since then & the 2 sides have stayed at the negotiating table.
China’s stock market is up 27% this year, giving it new leverage in trade talks
The White House is looking for ways to limit the economic damage that will result if Pres Trump makes good on his recent threats to close the US-Mexico border, according to Larry Kudlow, the Director of the National Economic Council. Kudlow said that the Trump administration was exploring whether it could permit trucks carrying freight to cross the border if it is sealed. He cautioned that the pres has not made any final decisions. "We are watching it and looking for ways to allow the freight passage, some people call it truck roads, and there are ways you can do that which would ameliorate the breakdown in supply chains," Kudlow said. Kudlow supports Trump's immigration policies "fully." "The question is: Can we deal with that, and not have economic damage? And I think the answer is: We can, and people are looking at different options." "Particularly if you can keep those freight lanes, truck lanes, open, that's probably the nub of it," Kudlow added. Kudlow said that allowing workers to cross the border could be more difficult. "I don't want to comment on it because we are playing right now — what you want to do is stop the emergency and the breakdown, and you want to try to limit whatever harm that does," he said. "It's a very difficult task. I think it's doable." Trump, who has declared the border situation a national emergency, threatened Fri to shut down "the Border, or large sections of the Border," if Mexico does not "immediately stop ALL illegal immigration coming into the United States throug (sic) our Southern Border."
White House looking to keep truck lanes open if Trump closes U.S.-Mexico border, K…
Traders are waiting for news, but little was announced today. Stocks digested recent gains & tomorrow should bring more activity with Mar economic reports.
Dow Jones Industrials
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