Monday, October 21, 2019

Higher markets on renewed optimism about a China trade deal

Dow rose 57 after weakness in early trading, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ advanced 73.  The MLP index was fractiously higher in the 222s & the REIT index gained 2+ to 417 (a new record).  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries continued to be sold.  Oil fell in the 53s (more below) & gold retreated 7 to 1486.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, shares were had their worst 2-day stretch in over a decade after a series of brokerage firms turned negative on the stock following reports that internal messages showed the planemaker may have misled the Federal Aviation Administration about the 737 Max safety system.  2 major downgrades today were based on a company test pilot's revelations on Fri in which he warned about difficulty operating the 737 Max’s MCAS anti-h stall system.  The stock fell 7% on Fri & with today's loss posted the biggest 2-day decline in 10 years.  BA is set to report Q3 results on Wed.  Analysts are expecting EPS of $2.29 on revenue of $20.4B.  The company's board of directors & head execs were slated to meet in San Antonio, Texas, on Sun & Mon ahead of the company's earnings report.  The stock dropped 13 to 331 (down 100 from its high almost 8 months ago).
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BOEING BATTERED: Shares suffer worst two days in years


Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that it is “completely inappropriate” for China to retaliate against US businesses whose employees have commented on pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.  Asked if US companies should be criticized for making profits in China in light of that gov's censorship efforts, Pompeo said that: “Look, every company’s gotta make its own set of decisions.”  “But what we’ve seen over the last few weeks publicly, but we’ve known now for an awfully long time, is that the long arm of Beijing is reaching out into these companies, stealing their intellectual property, forcing technology transfer, making it very difficult to, in fact, make a profit in China for many, many companies,” Pompeo added.  A single tweet in early Oct from Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey — which read “Fight for Freedom. Stand for Hong Kong” — triggered a backlash from China, a major market for the NBA.  The basketball league's initial response provoked criticism that the US company was failing to stand for American values.  Pompeo said that “from a foreign policy perspective, we think it’s completely inappropriate for China to attack U.S. businesses whose employees or customers exercise their fundamental freedoms here in the United States.”  He added: “We just think that makes no sense. And we’d encourage every company to make — take a good, close look ensuring that the kinds of things, the reciprocity that President [Donald] Trump has been demanding from China, actually takes place.”

China’s attacks on US businesses are ‘completely inappropriate,’ Mike

Pres Trump is prepared to use military force against Turkey over its actions in Syria in the event that such is “needed,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said as US troops withdraw from the region.  “We prefer peace to war,”  “But in the event that kinetic action or military action is needed, you should know that President Trump is fully prepared to undertake that action.”  The pres is under heavy criticism for his decision to withdraw American forces from northern Syria, abandoning the Kurds, who led the ground war against ISIS.  The withdrawal precipitated Turkey's incursion into the border zone earlier this month, which has left more than 120 civilians dead, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.  Pompeo declined to lay out a red line for what action would prompt a US military response, saying he did not want to “get out in front of the president’s decision about whether to take the awesome undertaking of using America’s military might.”  “You suggested the economic powers that we’ve used. We’ll certainly use them. We’ll use our diplomatic powers as well. Those are our preference,” Pompeo added.  Trump told reporters at a Cabinet meeting today that the US “never agreed to protect the Kurds for the rest of their lives.”  “We’re not going to take a position. Let them fight themselves,” Trump said.  The US imposed sanctions on Turkey last week following the country's incursion into Syria’s northern border area, which has been occupied by Kurdish allies in America's fight against the Islamic State group. Turkey views the Kurds as terrorists.  On Thurs, VP Mike Pence announced that Turkey agreed to a 5-day pause in attacks as the US facilitated the withdrawal of Kurdish fighters in the region.  Following the completed withdrawal, the US will eliminate its sanctions on the country, Pence said.  The cease-fire agreement was immediately criticized even by the Trump's Rep allies in Congress, who said it gave Turkey everything it wanted while abandoning US allies.  Pompeo defended the agreement, saying he was “fully convinced that that work saved lives.”  “Not only the lives of the [Syrian Democratic Forces] fighters, but the ethnic minorities in the region,” Pompeo said, referring to the Kurdish-led military force.  “Our allies see it the same way. We got real commitments to protect ethnic minorities throughout the region from the Turks in the course of negotiating that statement. I think the work that we did saved lives,” Pompeo added.  Pompeo also sought to distance Trump's actions in the Middle East with those of his predecessor.

Trump is ‘fully prepared’ to take military action against Turkey if needed, Mike Pompeo says

Pres Trump expressed optimism as a tariff agreement between the US-China takes shape, with his top trade negotiator saying the goal is to finish the first phase of talks by a mid-Nov summit.  At a cabinet meeting at the White House, Trump said, “the deal with China is coming along very well. They have to make a deal because their supply chain is going down the tubes.”  Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer said the administration aims to wrap up phase one of its talks with China before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in Chile on Nov 16&17.  Trump’s upbeat comments on trade also follow similarly optimistic remarks made Sat by China's trade negotiator at a technology conference.  “China and the U.S. have made substantial progress in many aspects, and laid an important foundation for a phase one agreement,” said Vice Premier Liu He.  Trump said a small number of US troops will remain in Syria near the Jordanian border & that others still there “secured the oil.”  Earlier today, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said the US was considering leaving some troops behind to secure oil fields in the region & make sure they don't fall into the hands of a resurgent Islamic State.  Trump said of the troops, “ultimately, we’re bringing them home.”  Trump's comments came after the US pulled most troops out of northeastern Syria, a move that has led lawmakers to harshly criticize the pres for what they said is abandoning Kurds as Turkey invades.

Trump says U.S.-China trade deal coming along ‘very well’


Oil futures settled at a nearly 2-week, as investors failed to shake worries that growing signs of economic weakness will eventually hurt demand for crude oil.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Nov delivery fell 47¢ (0.9%) to end at $53.31 a barrel, after the US benchmark contract posted a 1.7% weekly decline.  The Nov, expires tomorrow.  Global benchmark Brent crude for Dec lost 46¢ (0.8%) to finish at $58.96 a barrel, following a weekly skid of 1.8%.  Both benchmark crude contracts finished at their lowest since Oct 8.  Markets participants have been digesting evidence that some of the biggest economies in the world are weakening, which could deliver a hit to overall crude uptake in the near term.  On Fri, China's National Bureau of Statistics released data showed slower-than-expected growth from the 2nd-largest economy.  GDP expanded at a 6% pace in Q3, the slowest in 27 years.  On top of that, signs that some major producers aren't adhering to production agreements are also weighing on sentiment.  Russia yesterday said that it failed to comply to its commitments in Sep to curb production, citing increases in natural-gas condensate production ahead of winter.  The current output pact between OPEC & its allies to cut 1.2M barrels a day runs thru Mar 2020.  Meanwhile, Kuwait & Saudi Arabia were having discussions to restart production in oil fields that they manage jointly, which could deliver 500K barrels a day in crude, pressuring prices.  The fields Khafji and Wafra have been shut for the past 4 years.

Oil futures end near a 2-week low as investors fret about crude demand

Buyers returned in the PM & were able to take the stock indices higher.  Trade optimism & earnings are fueling demand for stocks.  Turkey is a tricky situation that keeps unfolding.  Brexit looks hopeless as the Oct 31 deadline approaches.  But the bulls are happy & want to take the averages to new records soon.

Dow Jones Industrials









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