Dow went up 19, decliners slightly ahead of advancers & NAZ fell 32. The MLP index was steady in the 218s & the REIT index rose 2+ to the 412s. Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries edged higher. Oil dropped 1 to the 54s & gold sank 6 to 1489.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Stocks opened little changed as the Federal Reserve kicks off its 2-day policy meeting & earnings season rolls on. The quiet open has the S&P 500 hovering near its record high reached yesterday. The Dow & Nasdaq hover just below their own record peaks. The Fed kicks off a 2-day policy meeting, & at its conclusion is expected to cut rates -- by 0.25 % -- for a 3rd time this year. Market participants will be paying close attention to what the central bank says about future policy. Treasuries with light buying has the 10-year yield down 2.2 basis points at 1.831%. In Europe, Britain's FTSE was down 0.5% to pace the decline. Shares were mixed in Asia & Chinese benchmarks fell after Hong Kong's leader warned that months of political protests are taking a harsh toll on the economy. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed slightly higher by 0.5%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong closed off 0.4% & the Shanghai Composite ended the day down 0.9%.
Pres Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping will meet in Chile on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit on Nov 17 to sign the "phase one" trade deal that the 2 sides hammered out earlier this month. China appeared eager to meet US demands in the trade negotiations, particularly on the thorny issue of intellectual property theft, a key irritant in its tariff war with DC. Zhang Zhicheng, director of the Intellectual Property Protection Depat of the Intellectual Property Office, promised "strict protection, protection, protection, and protection" of the innovations US companies bring when they do business in China. Zhang's office will enforce penalties against companies found to have lifted US intellectual property, he said. The announcement adds to a drumbeat of market-opening promises by the communist gov, which is trying to make China's cooling, state-dominated economy more productive. Beijing also will ease restrictions on foreign competitors in some newly opened finance businesses, the Commerce Ministry added. Complaints about Beijing's technology ambitions helped to spark its tariff war with Pres Trump. Trade negotiators are working out details of an Oct 11 agreement under which Pres Trump delayed a planned tariff hike on Chinese imports. Trump said Beijing agreed to buy more American farm goods in exchange, though China has yet to confirm details of its commitment. Business groups welcomed the agreement as a possible step to breaking a deadlock in the 15-month-old conflict, though the 2 sides have yet to report progress on their core disputes over Beijing's trade surplus & technology policies. Those include complaints from DC, Europe & other trading partners that Chinese development plans are based in part on stealing or pressuring companies to hand over technology. Authorities will be banned from "explicitly or implicitly" pressuring companies to give up technology, said a ministry official, Ye Wei.
US online shopping is expected to hit record spending highs during the 2019 holiday season, with massive growth on major shopping days such as Black Friday & Cyber Monday offsetting a shorter sales window for e-commerce retailers. Online shoppers are projected to spend $144B in Nov-Dec, according to Adobe Analytics' annual calculations. That sum would mark a 14% increase compared to last year's holiday shopping period, which generated $126B in sales. The sales growth is expected despite a holiday shopping period that is 6 days shorter than last year, with just 22 days between Cyber Monday & Christmas. Adobe projects that e-commerce sales will exceed $1B for every day of Nov & Dec for the first time on record. Major online shopping events featuring promotional deals, such as Black Friday & Cyber Monday, are once again tabbed for massive growth. Black Friday sales are expected to grow 20% to $7.5B, while Cyber Monday sales are projected to expand nearly 19% to $9.4B. "Cyber Week," the 5-day period that includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday & Cyber Monday, will account for $29B in sales, or 20% of spending for the entire holiday period. Adobe Analytics forecasts online shopping by tracking transaction data from 80 of the top 100 US retailers. The projections are based on sales of 55M individual products. Major e-commerce platforms will once again dominate the online shopping landscape this season. Online retail giants are defined by Adobe as those with $1B or more in annual sales. Those retailers should see a 65% boost in sales during the holiday shopping season, compared to just 35% for smaller outlets with $50M or less in annual revenue. The e-commerce giants also tend to rely more heavily on advertising to attract shoppers to their platforms, while small outlets lean on word-of-mouth, SEO & other organic methods.
US consumer confidence dipped slightly in Oct as worries over business conditions & employment prospects ticked up, according to data from The Conference Board. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index slipped to 125.9 this month from a Sep reading of 126.3. The forecast called for 128. The Oct reading was the lowest since Jun, when confidence fell to 124.3. Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, said that consumers feel good about present conditions, but future expectations lowered slightly “as consumers expressed some concerns about business conditions and job prospects.” “However, confidence levels remain high and there are no indications that consumers will curtail their holiday spending,” Franco added.
US consumer confidence dips in October, misses expectations
Optimism about a trade deal is taking a back seat to attention on the FOMC meeting. While another rate cut is expected tomorrow, there is some nervousness that with stock indices at record highs the rates may be left alone. Even though the US economy has been stumbling lately, the holiday season should be a good one for retailers, &, in turn, the US economy. The first estimate for Q3 data will be released tomorrow before the market open.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 54.94 | -0.87 | -1.6% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,487.10 | -8.70 | -0.6% |
Stocks opened little changed as the Federal Reserve kicks off its 2-day policy meeting & earnings season rolls on. The quiet open has the S&P 500 hovering near its record high reached yesterday. The Dow & Nasdaq hover just below their own record peaks. The Fed kicks off a 2-day policy meeting, & at its conclusion is expected to cut rates -- by 0.25 % -- for a 3rd time this year. Market participants will be paying close attention to what the central bank says about future policy. Treasuries with light buying has the 10-year yield down 2.2 basis points at 1.831%. In Europe, Britain's FTSE was down 0.5% to pace the decline. Shares were mixed in Asia & Chinese benchmarks fell after Hong Kong's leader warned that months of political protests are taking a harsh toll on the economy. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed slightly higher by 0.5%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong closed off 0.4% & the Shanghai Composite ended the day down 0.9%.
Stocks looking for direction ahead of Fed meeting
Pres Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping will meet in Chile on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit on Nov 17 to sign the "phase one" trade deal that the 2 sides hammered out earlier this month. China appeared eager to meet US demands in the trade negotiations, particularly on the thorny issue of intellectual property theft, a key irritant in its tariff war with DC. Zhang Zhicheng, director of the Intellectual Property Protection Depat of the Intellectual Property Office, promised "strict protection, protection, protection, and protection" of the innovations US companies bring when they do business in China. Zhang's office will enforce penalties against companies found to have lifted US intellectual property, he said. The announcement adds to a drumbeat of market-opening promises by the communist gov, which is trying to make China's cooling, state-dominated economy more productive. Beijing also will ease restrictions on foreign competitors in some newly opened finance businesses, the Commerce Ministry added. Complaints about Beijing's technology ambitions helped to spark its tariff war with Pres Trump. Trade negotiators are working out details of an Oct 11 agreement under which Pres Trump delayed a planned tariff hike on Chinese imports. Trump said Beijing agreed to buy more American farm goods in exchange, though China has yet to confirm details of its commitment. Business groups welcomed the agreement as a possible step to breaking a deadlock in the 15-month-old conflict, though the 2 sides have yet to report progress on their core disputes over Beijing's trade surplus & technology policies. Those include complaints from DC, Europe & other trading partners that Chinese development plans are based in part on stealing or pressuring companies to hand over technology. Authorities will be banned from "explicitly or implicitly" pressuring companies to give up technology, said a ministry official, Ye Wei.
China, US to sign trade deal on Nov. 17 in win for Trump
US online shopping is expected to hit record spending highs during the 2019 holiday season, with massive growth on major shopping days such as Black Friday & Cyber Monday offsetting a shorter sales window for e-commerce retailers. Online shoppers are projected to spend $144B in Nov-Dec, according to Adobe Analytics' annual calculations. That sum would mark a 14% increase compared to last year's holiday shopping period, which generated $126B in sales. The sales growth is expected despite a holiday shopping period that is 6 days shorter than last year, with just 22 days between Cyber Monday & Christmas. Adobe projects that e-commerce sales will exceed $1B for every day of Nov & Dec for the first time on record. Major online shopping events featuring promotional deals, such as Black Friday & Cyber Monday, are once again tabbed for massive growth. Black Friday sales are expected to grow 20% to $7.5B, while Cyber Monday sales are projected to expand nearly 19% to $9.4B. "Cyber Week," the 5-day period that includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday & Cyber Monday, will account for $29B in sales, or 20% of spending for the entire holiday period. Adobe Analytics forecasts online shopping by tracking transaction data from 80 of the top 100 US retailers. The projections are based on sales of 55M individual products. Major e-commerce platforms will once again dominate the online shopping landscape this season. Online retail giants are defined by Adobe as those with $1B or more in annual sales. Those retailers should see a 65% boost in sales during the holiday shopping season, compared to just 35% for smaller outlets with $50M or less in annual revenue. The e-commerce giants also tend to rely more heavily on advertising to attract shoppers to their platforms, while small outlets lean on word-of-mouth, SEO & other organic methods.
How to play the market in the record-breaking 2019 holiday spending season
US consumer confidence dipped slightly in Oct as worries over business conditions & employment prospects ticked up, according to data from The Conference Board. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index slipped to 125.9 this month from a Sep reading of 126.3. The forecast called for 128. The Oct reading was the lowest since Jun, when confidence fell to 124.3. Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, said that consumers feel good about present conditions, but future expectations lowered slightly “as consumers expressed some concerns about business conditions and job prospects.” “However, confidence levels remain high and there are no indications that consumers will curtail their holiday spending,” Franco added.
US consumer confidence dips in October, misses expectations
Optimism about a trade deal is taking a back seat to attention on the FOMC meeting. While another rate cut is expected tomorrow, there is some nervousness that with stock indices at record highs the rates may be left alone. Even though the US economy has been stumbling lately, the holiday season should be a good one for retailers, &, in turn, the US economy. The first estimate for Q3 data will be released tomorrow before the market open.
Dow Jones Industrials
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