Monday, October 28, 2019

Markets rise as S&P 500 jumps to record high

Dow rose 132 (off earlier highs), advancers over decliners 5-4 & NAZ soared 82.  The MLP index fell 2+ to the 218s & the REIT index is losing strength, falling 2+ to 410.  Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries were weak today.  Oil dropped 1 to the 55s & gold sank 10 to 1494 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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Shares of AT&T (T), a Dividend Aristocrat, shot higher in active trading, after Q3 profit beat expectations & the disclosure that it was collaborating with activist investor Elliott Management on maximizing shareholder value, which was enough for investors to brush off a revenue miss.  Results were the best of the earnings-reporting bunch, thus far.  The communication giant unveiled a 3-year capital allocation plan, in conjunction with its earnings report, in which it said includes a plan for div growth, share repurchases, assets sales & paying down debt.  The company said while the objectives disclosed have been central to its plans “for many months,” it has benefited from talks with shareholders such as Elliott Management.  “I’ve found our engagement with Elliott to be constructive and helpful, and I look forward to continuing those conversations,” said CEO Randall Stephenson.  “These are smart people who very much appreciate the opportunity we have to create tremendous shareholder value.”  “As we move forward in the coming months, the board & I look forward to continue our close collaboration with Elliott on strategy, operational initiatives in our portfolio and to see through the value-enhancing steps that I’ve laid out today,” Stephenson said today.  Meanwhile, the earnings report was mixed, but the bad wasn’t so bad as to act as a drag on the stock.  EPS fell to 50¢, from 65¢ in the same period last year.  Excluding nonrecurring items, such as a noncash loss on benefit plans, merger-amortization & integration costs, adjusted EPS rose to 94¢ from 90¢, beating the estimate for 93¢.  Revenue fell 2.5% to $44.59B, below the $45.11B estimate.  Communications revenue, which includes mobility & entertainment, fell 1.7% to $35.4B to miss consensus of $35.75B, while WarnerMedia revenue, which includes HBO & Turner, declined 4.4% to $7.8B to miss expectations of $8.18B.   The stock rose 1.58.
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AT&T stock surges as constructive relationship with activist and profit beat outweighs revenue miss


Gold futures declined, with strength in the stock market fueling the precious metal's settlement below the psychologically important level of $1500 an ounce.  Traders awaited this week's Federal Reserve policy meeting, which could determine trading for a number of assets, including bullion.  The S&P 500 index touched an intraday record for the first time since Jul 26, as gold futures settled, with investors looking to a busy week of earnings & a central bank that is expected to ultimately opt for another cut to interest rates.  Gold for Dec fell $9.50 (0.6%) to settle at $1495 an ounce, with prices finishing below $1500 for the first time since Wed.  The Fed is widely expected to deliver another qtr-point cut to its benchmark interest rate when policy makers conclude a 2-day meeting on Wed.  US-China trade talks also remain in focus, with developments between DC & Beijing suggesting that they may be nearing a phase one deal, which could be detrimental for gold prices.

Gold ends below $1,500 as stocks rally ahead of this week’s Fed meeting

Oil futures settled lower, pulling back as last week’s strong climb lifted crude prices to a roughly one-month high.  The price decline put an end to a 4-session streak of gains, which were fed by a surprise weekly drop in US crude inventories.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for Dec lost 85¢ (1.5%) to settle at $55.81 a barrel.  Dec Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 45¢ (0.7%) to $61.57 a barrel.  WTI pn Fri ended at the highest level for a front-month contract since Sep 24, scoring a 5.2% weekly rise.  Brent crude saw a 4.4% weekly advance to close Fri at its highest since Sep 26.  Growth in US oil production will be a large driver in determining the scope of production cuts by OPEC & its allies.  OPEC & its allied producers (i.e. Russia) must decide whether to extend or modify an agreement on output cuts that are due to expire in Apr.

Oil prices pull back from one-month highs


The Dow finished well off AM highs, while the S&P 500 & NAZ had a good day.  There is some nervousness that the record set by the S&P might cause the Fed to leave interest rates alone on Wed.  If a limited trade is adopted, it is expected to benefit the tech stocks the most, accounting for their strength today, & agriculture.  Sentiment in the stock market is running high, with traders counting on a trade deal very soon.

Dow Jones Industrials









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