Dow soared 319 (off session highs), advancers over decliners about 4-1 & NAZ shot up 106. The MLP index added 1+ to the 223s & the REIT index rose 1+ to the 409s. Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries continued to be sold while stocks were in a rally mode. Oil advanced 1+ to the high 54s & gold pulled back 13 to 1487 (above session lows).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The US & China have reached a partial trade deal & a truce in the long-running trade war may be near, according. Stocks took a leg up on the report, with the Dow trading higher by 400. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, speaking on Turkey, declined to confirm reports of a deal but eluded to an announcement. "We have had a productive two days of discussions," he said while taking reporter questions. Pres Trump signaled today that talks were heading in the right direction after a week of trading barbs with the Chinese. "Good things are happening at China Trade Talk Meeting. Warmer feelings than in recent past, more like the Old Days," he tweeted. Vice Premier Liu He is set to meet with Pres Trump later today at the White House.
Pres Trump has given his administration the power to place "significant" sanctions on Turkey, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said during a press conference. Although the administration has not yet imposed any sanctions on Turkey, Mnuchin warned they were willing to do so. "These are very powerful sanctions. We hope we don’t have to use them," he said. "We can shut down the Turkish economy if we need to." Trump faced a fierce, bipartisan backlash this week after a sudden announcement that the US was withdrawing from northeastern Syria in advance of Turkey's military action, blindsiding both lawmakers & American allies. Opponents argued the decision will result in the slaughter of the American-backed Kurdish forces (& civilians), who led the fight against ISIS in Syria, at the hands of Turkey. A slew of Trump's key allies, such as South Carolina Sen Lindsey Graham, blasted his decision, warning it could become the "biggest mistake of his presidency" unless it's reversed.
The US is sending additional troops to Saudi Arabia to protect the oil-rich kingdom from Iranian attacks. Secretary of Defense Mike Esper authorized deploying 2 more fighter squadrons, an expeditionary wing, 2 Patriot missile batteries & one high-altitude missile defense system after a request from Central Command, the Pentagon announced. US military presence in Saudi Arabia has increased by 14K since May -- & by 3K in the past month -- as part of what the Defense Dept calls "an investment into regional security." On Sep 14, drone attacks on 2 of Saudi Arabia's Aramco oil facilities sliced the country's oil production in ½. A rebel group in Yemen called Houthi said that it was responsible for what happened, but the US gov disagreed and promptly cited Iran as the real culprit. Iran denies the accusation. "The United States does not seek conflict with the Iranian regime, but we will retain a robust military capability in the region that is ready to respond to any crisis and will defend U.S. forces and interest," said the Pentagon spokesman. Saudi Arabia is home to 18% of the world's oil & is the globe's largest exporter of the substance. "There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack," Pres Trump tweeted last month.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Pres Neel Kashkari said that the economic backdrop may lead him to support another rate cut. “I think the data is a little bit mixed,” he said. “Generally speaking, I think we should be providing some support to the economy. I think right now rates are roughly around neutral. I think I’m going to be in favor of another rate cut. How many more we have to go, it’ll depend on the data.” The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates another qtr-point during its next meeting. The Sept meeting minutes showed a clear divide over whether or not to cut rates in the near-term. Kashkari, who is not a voting member of the fed this year but participates in meetings concerning policy, said, on one hand, the economy is good. “The U.S. consumer is still very strong. Most Americans have jobs. Their wages are slowly increasing. Families have money in their pockets and they’re spending it,” he said. "That’s 70% of the economy.” On the other hand, he said, uncertainty, especially around trade is putting businesses on edge. “Businesses seem to be pulling back. They seem to be nervous," he added. "We’ve heard that they’re nervous about the trade war. Investment seems to be slowing. That’s a concerning signal.”
General Motors (GM) sweetened its latest contract offer to the UAW by upping the amount of money it’s committing to invest in US factories to $7.7B in an attempt to end the union's 26-day strike, according to a leaker. The proposal ups GM’s planned investment from $7B originally offered before the UAW started picketing Sep 16. GM also told the union all $7.7B would be “direct” investments, rather than a mix of direct & “indirect” investments in its previous commitment. Indirect investments could include joint ventures with other companies, like a battery maker. The company said the offer, extended on Mon, is beneficial for both sides & “fair and worthy” of the union's support to end its nearly 4-week-old strike. In a company-wide message to employees Fri, Exec VP of Global Manufacturing Gerald Johnson says the proposal addresses the UAW's top concerns, including preserving health costs & providing a “clear path” for temporary workers to reach permanent employment. “Our offer builds on the winning formula we have all benefited from over the past several years,” he wrote. “We remain focused on building a stronger future for everyone.” The offer, he said, “commits to thousands of new jobs right here in the US Bs of $s in new investments.” Johnson did not include specifics, but the offer GM submitted before the strike included the $7B in investments & more than 5400 new or retained jobs. Since that offer, Johnson said, GM has “done even more to address the issues the UAW has brought forward.” GM, according to Johnson, has told the union that “it’s critical” the sides come to a resolution to end the UAW’s strike. About 48K UAW members have been picketing outside GM's US facilities since Sep 16. The work stoppage has rippled throughout the automaker's North American operations, causing thousands of additional layoffs. It has been estimated that GM is losing roughly $50-100M per day in lost production. The stock rose 90¢.
If you would like to learn more about GM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
GM sweetens UAW contract offer with $7.7 billion in direct US factory investment
Gold futures finished lower, with bullion registering its lowest settlement month to date, amid growing optimism on Sino-American trade talks & progress on Brexit. Around the time gold futures settled, a report said that the US & China reached a tentative partial agreement that may lead to a truce in the trade war. As part of the pact, China would agree to some agricultural concessions, while the US. would provide some relief on tariffs, the report said. Gold futures showed little bearish reaction to the news at the settlement, with prices for the haven metal off the day's worst levels. Dec gold fell $12.20 (0.8%) to settle at $1488.an ounce, falling further below the psychologically significant level at $1500, but ending above the day’s low of $1478. The most-active gold futures contract marked its lowest settlement & sharpest daily slump since Sep 30. For the week, gold lost 1.6%, the biggest weekly percentage drop for the contract in over 7 months. Benchmark US stock indices also got a boost after preliminary data released from the Univ of Mich also revealed that the consumer sentiment survey rose to a 3-month high of 96 this month from 93.2 in Sep. Meanwhile, growing hopes that UK & European leaders can reach a deal for Britain to leave the EU also pushed equity markets higher & precious metals' prices lower.
Gold prices post lowest finish month to date
There is plenty of drama out there for investors to understand. While the news on the partial China deal is good, a final deal needs a lot of work. Impacting that will be the Hong Kong dispute which drags on. The UK Brexit deal is moving forward, but at a slow pace. Nancy Pelosi has not taken up the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal. The GM strike has been painful & a settlement may take time. Then there are the Turkey & Saudi Arabia stories to deal with. The consumer confidence data was encouraging today, but Q3 GDP data will be out in a couple weeks & that should be short of great. Next week, the bulls will be tested to see if they can keep up the current mini rally in stocks after selling in the last hour of trading.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The US & China have reached a partial trade deal & a truce in the long-running trade war may be near, according. Stocks took a leg up on the report, with the Dow trading higher by 400. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, speaking on Turkey, declined to confirm reports of a deal but eluded to an announcement. "We have had a productive two days of discussions," he said while taking reporter questions. Pres Trump signaled today that talks were heading in the right direction after a week of trading barbs with the Chinese. "Good things are happening at China Trade Talk Meeting. Warmer feelings than in recent past, more like the Old Days," he tweeted. Vice Premier Liu He is set to meet with Pres Trump later today at the White House.
US-China reportedly reach partial trade deal
Pres Trump has given his administration the power to place "significant" sanctions on Turkey, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said during a press conference. Although the administration has not yet imposed any sanctions on Turkey, Mnuchin warned they were willing to do so. "These are very powerful sanctions. We hope we don’t have to use them," he said. "We can shut down the Turkish economy if we need to." Trump faced a fierce, bipartisan backlash this week after a sudden announcement that the US was withdrawing from northeastern Syria in advance of Turkey's military action, blindsiding both lawmakers & American allies. Opponents argued the decision will result in the slaughter of the American-backed Kurdish forces (& civilians), who led the fight against ISIS in Syria, at the hands of Turkey. A slew of Trump's key allies, such as South Carolina Sen Lindsey Graham, blasted his decision, warning it could become the "biggest mistake of his presidency" unless it's reversed.
Mnuchin: 'We can shut down the Turkish economy if we need to'
The US is sending additional troops to Saudi Arabia to protect the oil-rich kingdom from Iranian attacks. Secretary of Defense Mike Esper authorized deploying 2 more fighter squadrons, an expeditionary wing, 2 Patriot missile batteries & one high-altitude missile defense system after a request from Central Command, the Pentagon announced. US military presence in Saudi Arabia has increased by 14K since May -- & by 3K in the past month -- as part of what the Defense Dept calls "an investment into regional security." On Sep 14, drone attacks on 2 of Saudi Arabia's Aramco oil facilities sliced the country's oil production in ½. A rebel group in Yemen called Houthi said that it was responsible for what happened, but the US gov disagreed and promptly cited Iran as the real culprit. Iran denies the accusation. "The United States does not seek conflict with the Iranian regime, but we will retain a robust military capability in the region that is ready to respond to any crisis and will defend U.S. forces and interest," said the Pentagon spokesman. Saudi Arabia is home to 18% of the world's oil & is the globe's largest exporter of the substance. "There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack," Pres Trump tweeted last month.
US ramps up military presence in oil-rich Saudi Arabia
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Pres Neel Kashkari said that the economic backdrop may lead him to support another rate cut. “I think the data is a little bit mixed,” he said. “Generally speaking, I think we should be providing some support to the economy. I think right now rates are roughly around neutral. I think I’m going to be in favor of another rate cut. How many more we have to go, it’ll depend on the data.” The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates another qtr-point during its next meeting. The Sept meeting minutes showed a clear divide over whether or not to cut rates in the near-term. Kashkari, who is not a voting member of the fed this year but participates in meetings concerning policy, said, on one hand, the economy is good. “The U.S. consumer is still very strong. Most Americans have jobs. Their wages are slowly increasing. Families have money in their pockets and they’re spending it,” he said. "That’s 70% of the economy.” On the other hand, he said, uncertainty, especially around trade is putting businesses on edge. “Businesses seem to be pulling back. They seem to be nervous," he added. "We’ve heard that they’re nervous about the trade war. Investment seems to be slowing. That’s a concerning signal.”
Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari says US economy needs some support
General Motors (GM) sweetened its latest contract offer to the UAW by upping the amount of money it’s committing to invest in US factories to $7.7B in an attempt to end the union's 26-day strike, according to a leaker. The proposal ups GM’s planned investment from $7B originally offered before the UAW started picketing Sep 16. GM also told the union all $7.7B would be “direct” investments, rather than a mix of direct & “indirect” investments in its previous commitment. Indirect investments could include joint ventures with other companies, like a battery maker. The company said the offer, extended on Mon, is beneficial for both sides & “fair and worthy” of the union's support to end its nearly 4-week-old strike. In a company-wide message to employees Fri, Exec VP of Global Manufacturing Gerald Johnson says the proposal addresses the UAW's top concerns, including preserving health costs & providing a “clear path” for temporary workers to reach permanent employment. “Our offer builds on the winning formula we have all benefited from over the past several years,” he wrote. “We remain focused on building a stronger future for everyone.” The offer, he said, “commits to thousands of new jobs right here in the US Bs of $s in new investments.” Johnson did not include specifics, but the offer GM submitted before the strike included the $7B in investments & more than 5400 new or retained jobs. Since that offer, Johnson said, GM has “done even more to address the issues the UAW has brought forward.” GM, according to Johnson, has told the union that “it’s critical” the sides come to a resolution to end the UAW’s strike. About 48K UAW members have been picketing outside GM's US facilities since Sep 16. The work stoppage has rippled throughout the automaker's North American operations, causing thousands of additional layoffs. It has been estimated that GM is losing roughly $50-100M per day in lost production. The stock rose 90¢.
If you would like to learn more about GM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/GM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
GM sweetens UAW contract offer with $7.7 billion in direct US factory investment
Gold futures finished lower, with bullion registering its lowest settlement month to date, amid growing optimism on Sino-American trade talks & progress on Brexit. Around the time gold futures settled, a report said that the US & China reached a tentative partial agreement that may lead to a truce in the trade war. As part of the pact, China would agree to some agricultural concessions, while the US. would provide some relief on tariffs, the report said. Gold futures showed little bearish reaction to the news at the settlement, with prices for the haven metal off the day's worst levels. Dec gold fell $12.20 (0.8%) to settle at $1488.an ounce, falling further below the psychologically significant level at $1500, but ending above the day’s low of $1478. The most-active gold futures contract marked its lowest settlement & sharpest daily slump since Sep 30. For the week, gold lost 1.6%, the biggest weekly percentage drop for the contract in over 7 months. Benchmark US stock indices also got a boost after preliminary data released from the Univ of Mich also revealed that the consumer sentiment survey rose to a 3-month high of 96 this month from 93.2 in Sep. Meanwhile, growing hopes that UK & European leaders can reach a deal for Britain to leave the EU also pushed equity markets higher & precious metals' prices lower.
Gold prices post lowest finish month to date
There is plenty of drama out there for investors to understand. While the news on the partial China deal is good, a final deal needs a lot of work. Impacting that will be the Hong Kong dispute which drags on. The UK Brexit deal is moving forward, but at a slow pace. Nancy Pelosi has not taken up the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal. The GM strike has been painful & a settlement may take time. Then there are the Turkey & Saudi Arabia stories to deal with. The consumer confidence data was encouraging today, but Q3 GDP data will be out in a couple weeks & that should be short of great. Next week, the bulls will be tested to see if they can keep up the current mini rally in stocks after selling in the last hour of trading.
Dow Jones Industrials
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