Friday, October 11, 2019

Markets skyrocket as Trump tweets "good things happeneing"

Dow shot up 401, advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ gained 144.  The MLP index went up 1+ to the 224s & the REIT index rose 2+ to 410 (record territory).  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were sold again.  Oil rose to the 54s & gold sank 20  to 1480 while stocks rallied.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil53.95
 +0.40+0.8%

GC=FGold  1,482.70
-18.20 -1.2%






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Stocks kicked off the final day of the week on a high note as the US & China begin day 2 of trade talks.  This after Pres Trump signaled that thus far talks are going well.  Trump is set to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House later today.  The Dow rose over 300 points in early trading.  In commodities, oil prices spiked around 1% after a rocket attack on an Iranian tanker.  Global investors are also expecting to hear from Saudi giant Aramco Oil as it prepares for its initial public offering.  Early reports indicate the company's valuation may around $1.5T, below the $2T  Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was aiming for.  In Europe, London's FTSE gained 0.3%, Germany's DAX added 1.9% & France CAC was higher by 1.2%.  In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite finished the day higher by 0.9% & 2.4% for the week.  Tokyo's Nikkei closed up 1.2% & 1.8% for the week.  Hong Kong's Hang Seng ended the session higher 2.3% & 1.9% for the week.

Dow jumps 300 awaiting Trump's meeting with China trade delegation


Pres Trump struck an optimistic tone on the trade talks with China today as the 2 countries try to end a 15-month-long trade war that is taking a toll on the global economy.  “Warmer feelings than in recent past, more like the Old Days,” Trump tweeted.  “I will be meeting with the Vice Premier today. All would like to see something significant happen!”  Trump added a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He during the delegation's visit, which is scheduled to take place at 2:45PM ET.  The move is seen as a positive sign as previous meetings between the 2 have yielded progress on trade.  Trade negotiators from the US & China resumed their 2nd day of negotiations in DC.  This week's talks mark the first senior-level in-person negotiations since late Jul.  The discussions come only days before an Oct 15 deadline when the US plans to hike tariffs on at least $250B in Chinese goods to 30% from 25%.  Trump also said today a trade deal between the US & China doesn't require an approval from the Congress, which is “fast and clean.”  The 2 countries could agree to a partial agreement on issues such as currency & agriculture buying, leaving more controversial issues for later negotiations.  Multiple reports suggest a delay in the tariff hike could also be agreed upon.  A state-run Chinese newspaper said in an editorial today that “a partial deal is a more feasible objective.”  China also set a clear a timetable for opening its finance industries, adding to a slew of positive developments overnight.

Trump says ‘good things’ are happening at China trade talks: ‘Warmer feelings than in recent past’


The US & China appear close to a limited trade deal, leaving more controversial issues for later negotiations.  The trade talks, which Pres Trump said were “going really well,” extended into the 2nd day.  A slew of media reports overnight suggest that the world's 2 largest economies could agree to a partial agreement on issues such as currency & agriculture buying, and it could also include a delay in the tariff hike scheduled for next week.  Trump again gave an optimistic read on the talks today, saying in a tweet “Good things are happening at China Trade Talk Meeting. Warmer feelings than in recent past.”  Day #2 of the talks now includes a key meeting between Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.  The additional meeting renewed hopes for positive trade progress as past meetings between the 2 have yielded a delay in tariffs & agriculture buying.  The US is seeking pledges from Beijing to refrain from currency manipulation & more agriculture buying.  In return, the US would offer a suspension of a tariff increase, adding it would be a deal the US & China were close to agreeing on in previous talks.  It was reported on a mini deal that includes a currency agreement & tariff delay.  Also, the Trump administration plans to allow the sale of some supplies to Huawei, a giant telecom company in China.  The administration restricted sales to Huawei in May due to concerns about national security.  Bigger issues including the alleged theft of intellectual property & forced technology transfer might be saved for a later date.  However, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Dem, expressed opposition to a mini deal that includes relief for Huawei, which he said would “show tremendous weakness.”

Optimism is rising that some sort of US-China trade deal is coming — here’s what we know

Growing hopes that UK & European leaders can reach an agreed deal for Britain to leave the EU pushed the £ higher for a 2nd day.  The £ rose as high as $1.2706, up from $1.2444 yesterday, a day when the UK currency had its best single day percentage advance since Mar.  It's the strongest sterling has been since Theresa May was prime minister. Boris Johnson stepped into #10 Downing Street on Jul 24.  European Council Pres Donald Tusk, who has tweeted criticism at British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, today said he received promising signals from Ireland's Leo Varadkar that a deal is possible.  It was reported that Johnson yesterday gave some ground on the issue of Northern Ireland.  The European Commission meanwhile said Michel Barnier had a “constructive” meeting with Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay today.  The EU says it has agreed with the UK to “intensify” Brexit negotiations in a belated attempt to reach a divorce deal ahead of Oct.31, when Britain is scheduled to leave the bloc.  But some analysts say they remained skeptical a deal can be reached by Oct 31 & that the more likely path is an extension of the Article 50 deadline & a general election.  The £'s strength weighed on UK stocks.

Brexit hopes sends British pound to highest level of Johnson administration as U.K. banks soar

There is a lot of  talking in trade negotiations which makes the bulls happy.  It looks there could be a partial deal with China, but future talks will be needed for a final deal.  A Brexit deal may need more work, although current talks are needed before a final deal is reached.  Stock markets will respond to the success (or lack of) negotiations going forward.

Dow Jones Industrials








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