Dow jumped up 262, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 84. The MLP index was fractionally higher to 222 & the REIT index fell 1+ to the 406s. Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries went up. Oil slid lower in the 53s & gold dropped 8 to 1489 while stocks were being purchased.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
The US & China may be more in sync regarding recent trade negotiations than originally thought. While some experts have already cautioned that expectations for the tentative agreement celebrated by the White House on Fri, which calls for Beijing to ramp up agricultural purchases to as much as $50B, may exceed reality, the 2 govs insist they made legitimate progress. "There is no difference," spokesman Geng Shuang said in remarks posted by China's gov, describing the parties as unanimous on a deal. "This economic and trade agreement will be of great significance, beneficial to China, the United States and the world." The world's largest economies reached a "fundamental agreement" during the talks, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin insisted yesterday. The comments followed scrutiny from analysts & economists who pointed out that negotiators had delayed the trickiest issues for future talks & produced no documentation for the pact. While tariff increases set for Oct 15 were delayed, the US is still slated to impose levies on another $160B in Chinese goods in mid-Dec. Mnuchin said he anticipates shelving the Dec 15 tariffs because the agreement will be completed before then. "We made substantial progress," the treasury chief said. "China has agreed on agriculture that they're gonna take off tariffs," imposed in retaliation for duties that Pres Trump slapped on the country in 2018, initiating a trade battle that ramped up costs for US businesses & rattled global markets. The Chinese levies were a particularly sore point for US growers, many of whom supported Trump in 2016 & were hurt by the loss of Chinese markets for their products. Geng also addressed agricultural purchases by Chinese enterprises. "According to the preliminary information, the agricultural products purchased by Chinese enterprises from the United States this year include: 20 million tons of soybeans, 700,000 tons of pork, 700,000 tons of sorghum, 230,000 tons of wheat, and 320,000 tons of cotton. China will also speed up the procurement of US agricultural products," Geng said. But the celebration may be short-lived as the US, the world's largest importer, is still considering whether to impose tariffs on foreign automobiles & European goods like cheese & whisky. Trump, who has described himself as a "tariff man," says the duties are an effective negotiating tool with world govs & level an uneven playing field. The US-Mexico-Canada agreement, his administration's overhaul of the Clinton-era North American Free Trade Agreement, has yet to be ratified by Congress, however. That process became thornier when Dems regained control of the House of Representatives in 2018 mid-term elections.
The US-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the Intl Monetary Fund warned, adding that the outlook could darken considerably if trade tensions remain unresolved. The IMF said its latest World Economic Outlook projections show 2019 GDP growth at 3.0%, down from 3.2% in a Jul forecast, largely due to increasing fallout from global trade friction. The forecasts set a gloomy backdrop for the IMF & World Bank annual meetings this week in DC, where the Fund's new managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, is inheriting a range of problems, from stagnating trade to political backlash in some emerging market countries struggling with IMF-mandated austerity programs. The World Economic Outlook report spells out in sharp detail the economic difficulties caused by the US-China tariffs, including direct costs, market turmoil, reduced investment & lower productivity due to supply chain disruptions. The global crisis lender said that by 2020, announced tariffs would reduce global economic output by 0.8%. Georgieva said last week that this translates to a loss of $700B, or the equivalent of making Switzerland's economy disappear. “The weakness in growth is driven by a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity and global trade, with higher tariffs and prolonged trade policy uncertainty damaging investment and demand for capital goods,” IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said. Services were still strong across much of the world, but there were some signs of softening in services in the US & Europe, Gopinath added. For 2020, the Fund said global growth was set to pick up to 3.4% due to expectations of better performances in Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia & Turkey. But this forecast was a tenth of a point lower than in Jul & was vulnerable to downside risks, including worse trade tensions, Brexit-related disruptions & an abrupt aversion to risk in financial markets.
IMF says trade war will cut global growth to lowest since financial crisis a decade ago
JP Morgan (JPM), a Dow stock, posted profit & record revenue that exceeded expectations on the strength of consumer banking operations that helped the bank mitigate the impact of lower interest rates. The bank said Q3 EPS rose to $2.68, exceeding the $2.45 estimate. Revenue also rose 8% to a record $30.1B, exceeding the $28.5B estimate. The bank cited growth in home loans, auto & credit cards. “The consumer remains healthy with growth in wages and spending, combined with strong balance sheets and low unemployment levels,” CEO Jamie Dimon said. “This is being offset by weakening business sentiment and capital expenditures mostly driven by increasingly complex geopolitical risks, including tensions in global trade.” While Dimon said last month that Q3 trading revenue is expected to climb 10% from a year earlier, that figure is still 10% lower than the bank's results in Q2, when it posted $5.2 billion. The bank exceeded Dimon's guidance on the strength of its bond trading desks: The bank posted $3.6B in fixed income trading revenue, beating estimates by more than $300M. Equities trading posted $1.52B in revenue, just under the $1.58B. The stock shot up 3.78.
If you would like to learn more about JPM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JPM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
JP Morgan Chase shares rise after bank posts record revenue above Wall Street expectations
The first earnings reports got a warm reception by investors & the latest comments from China were helpful. However, dark clouds have not gone away. The US economy is giving mixed to positive data, the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement is stuck in the mud, the future of Brexit is cloudy, the outlook for global growth next year is cloudy, Turkey sanctions are coming & the General Motors (GM) strike drags on. Chances are that the upcoming earnings from big banks will be favorable, then earnings from traditional corps will be reported. And the Dow just went back over 27K, only 300 below its record high.
Dow Jones Industrials
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
| CL=F | Crude Oil | 53.17 | -0.42 | -0.8% |
| GC=F | Gold | 1,491.60 | -6.00 | -0.4% |
The US & China may be more in sync regarding recent trade negotiations than originally thought. While some experts have already cautioned that expectations for the tentative agreement celebrated by the White House on Fri, which calls for Beijing to ramp up agricultural purchases to as much as $50B, may exceed reality, the 2 govs insist they made legitimate progress. "There is no difference," spokesman Geng Shuang said in remarks posted by China's gov, describing the parties as unanimous on a deal. "This economic and trade agreement will be of great significance, beneficial to China, the United States and the world." The world's largest economies reached a "fundamental agreement" during the talks, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin insisted yesterday. The comments followed scrutiny from analysts & economists who pointed out that negotiators had delayed the trickiest issues for future talks & produced no documentation for the pact. While tariff increases set for Oct 15 were delayed, the US is still slated to impose levies on another $160B in Chinese goods in mid-Dec. Mnuchin said he anticipates shelving the Dec 15 tariffs because the agreement will be completed before then. "We made substantial progress," the treasury chief said. "China has agreed on agriculture that they're gonna take off tariffs," imposed in retaliation for duties that Pres Trump slapped on the country in 2018, initiating a trade battle that ramped up costs for US businesses & rattled global markets. The Chinese levies were a particularly sore point for US growers, many of whom supported Trump in 2016 & were hurt by the loss of Chinese markets for their products. Geng also addressed agricultural purchases by Chinese enterprises. "According to the preliminary information, the agricultural products purchased by Chinese enterprises from the United States this year include: 20 million tons of soybeans, 700,000 tons of pork, 700,000 tons of sorghum, 230,000 tons of wheat, and 320,000 tons of cotton. China will also speed up the procurement of US agricultural products," Geng said. But the celebration may be short-lived as the US, the world's largest importer, is still considering whether to impose tariffs on foreign automobiles & European goods like cheese & whisky. Trump, who has described himself as a "tariff man," says the duties are an effective negotiating tool with world govs & level an uneven playing field. The US-Mexico-Canada agreement, his administration's overhaul of the Clinton-era North American Free Trade Agreement, has yet to be ratified by Congress, however. That process became thornier when Dems regained control of the House of Representatives in 2018 mid-term elections.
China agrees that Trump's trade deal is a winner
The US-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the Intl Monetary Fund warned, adding that the outlook could darken considerably if trade tensions remain unresolved. The IMF said its latest World Economic Outlook projections show 2019 GDP growth at 3.0%, down from 3.2% in a Jul forecast, largely due to increasing fallout from global trade friction. The forecasts set a gloomy backdrop for the IMF & World Bank annual meetings this week in DC, where the Fund's new managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, is inheriting a range of problems, from stagnating trade to political backlash in some emerging market countries struggling with IMF-mandated austerity programs. The World Economic Outlook report spells out in sharp detail the economic difficulties caused by the US-China tariffs, including direct costs, market turmoil, reduced investment & lower productivity due to supply chain disruptions. The global crisis lender said that by 2020, announced tariffs would reduce global economic output by 0.8%. Georgieva said last week that this translates to a loss of $700B, or the equivalent of making Switzerland's economy disappear. “The weakness in growth is driven by a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity and global trade, with higher tariffs and prolonged trade policy uncertainty damaging investment and demand for capital goods,” IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said. Services were still strong across much of the world, but there were some signs of softening in services in the US & Europe, Gopinath added. For 2020, the Fund said global growth was set to pick up to 3.4% due to expectations of better performances in Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia & Turkey. But this forecast was a tenth of a point lower than in Jul & was vulnerable to downside risks, including worse trade tensions, Brexit-related disruptions & an abrupt aversion to risk in financial markets.
IMF says trade war will cut global growth to lowest since financial crisis a decade ago
JP Morgan (JPM), a Dow stock, posted profit & record revenue that exceeded expectations on the strength of consumer banking operations that helped the bank mitigate the impact of lower interest rates. The bank said Q3 EPS rose to $2.68, exceeding the $2.45 estimate. Revenue also rose 8% to a record $30.1B, exceeding the $28.5B estimate. The bank cited growth in home loans, auto & credit cards. “The consumer remains healthy with growth in wages and spending, combined with strong balance sheets and low unemployment levels,” CEO Jamie Dimon said. “This is being offset by weakening business sentiment and capital expenditures mostly driven by increasingly complex geopolitical risks, including tensions in global trade.” While Dimon said last month that Q3 trading revenue is expected to climb 10% from a year earlier, that figure is still 10% lower than the bank's results in Q2, when it posted $5.2 billion. The bank exceeded Dimon's guidance on the strength of its bond trading desks: The bank posted $3.6B in fixed income trading revenue, beating estimates by more than $300M. Equities trading posted $1.52B in revenue, just under the $1.58B. The stock shot up 3.78.
If you would like to learn more about JPM, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/JPM?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
JP Morgan Chase shares rise after bank posts record revenue above Wall Street expectations
The first earnings reports got a warm reception by investors & the latest comments from China were helpful. However, dark clouds have not gone away. The US economy is giving mixed to positive data, the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement is stuck in the mud, the future of Brexit is cloudy, the outlook for global growth next year is cloudy, Turkey sanctions are coming & the General Motors (GM) strike drags on. Chances are that the upcoming earnings from big banks will be favorable, then earnings from traditional corps will be reported. And the Dow just went back over 27K, only 300 below its record high.
Dow Jones Industrials
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