Monday, October 21, 2019

Markets gain after optimiism on a US-China deal

Dow lost 1, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ rose 55.  The MLP index  fluctuated in the 227s & the REIT index went up 1+ to 416 (another record high).  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were sold.  Oil fell fractionally to 53 & gold was steady at 1494.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil53.0110:02AM EDT-0.77-1.43%

GC=FGold1,495.3010:02AM EDT+1.20+0.08%






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Stocks held small gains at the open as the major averages set their sights on all-time highs.  All 3 of the major indices remain within 3 percentage points of their record peaks.  Ahead of the open, markets got a small lift after top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said it's possible China could avoid the new tariffs that are set to go into effect in Dec.  “We've made a lot of progress," Kudlow said.  "I think we're very close on opening financial services and the currency stability deal, which is essentially is an IMF deal. I think the agriculture, they started buying farm products, as you know, $40 [billion] to $50 billion worth.”  "If the talks go well on phase one, there is a chance we can get those December tariffs off,” he added.  Kudlow's comments came after Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said on Sat that the 2 sides have made "substantial progress" in trade talks.  US Treasuries were lower, with selling running the benchmark 10-year yield up 3.7 basis points at 1.784%.  In Europe, all of the major averages were higher with Germany's DAX up 0.8% to pace the gains.  Markets across Asia closed fractionally higher. Japan's Nikkei rallied 0.3% while China's Shanghai Composite & Hong Kong’s Hang Seng inched higher.

Stocks jump on good vibes from earnings, China


Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross downplayed the prospect of Pres Trump & Chinese Pres Xi Jinping signing an initial trade deal during next month's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Chile.  Ross said that it must be the “right deal” & that it doesn't have to be in Nov.  He added that it’s more important to have a “proper deal” than an exact date of when it occurs.  “The key thing is to get everything right that we do sign. That’s the important element, that’s what the president is wedded to,” he said  Ross also said that Dec tariffs & Huawei would not be part of the partial trade deal.

Wilbur Ross reveals the 'key' to any US-China trade deal


China is seeking $2.4B in retaliatory sanctions against the US for non-compliance with a WTO ruling in a tariffs case dating to the Obama era, a document published on today showed.  WTO appeals judges said in Jul that the US did not fully comply with a WTO ruling & could face Chinese sanctions if it does not remove tariffs on solar panels, wind towers, steel cylinders & aluminum extrusions.  China, in a request posted by WTO ahead of a Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) on Oct 28, said: "In response to the United States' continued non-compliance with the DSB's recommendations and rulings, China requests authorization from the DSB to suspend concessions and related obligations at an annual amount of $2.4 billion."

China takes aim at US with $2.4B in sanctions over Obama-era case

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver will face “retribution sooner or later” for saying that Beijing wanted him to fire the general manager of the Houston Rockets, state broadcaster CCTV said in a commentary.  The gov-controlled broadcaster said Silver “crossed the bottom line” by continuing to defend Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey.  “To cater to the taste of certain American politicians,” CCTV claims, Silver “fabricated lies out of thin air” & portrayed China as unforgiving.  Silver claimed that Beijing asked the NBA to fire Morey for the GM's now-deleted Oct 4 tweet, in which he showed support for anti-government protests in Hong Kong.  China has denied making that request.  “I saw that in the news, and I specifically checked that with the competent authority. The answer is, the Chinese gov has never raised such demands,” Geng Shuang, spokesman for the Chinese Ministry, said according to a transcript posted on the ministry website.  “Silver is making every effort to portray himself as a defender of free speech and is using so-called ‘freedom of speech’ to cover for Morey, who voiced support for violent elements in Hong Kong,” CCTV added.  The Chinese gov places limits on speech within China & blocks much of the internet.  Beijing's reaction to Morey's tweet, & the NBA's initially apologetic response to China, opened a debate on the influence China has over speech in other countries when there's a financial interest at stake.

China state media: NBA’s Silver faces ‘retribution’ for saying Beijing wanted Rockets GM fired

While the Dow lost its early gain, other stock data was favorable.  More good thoughts about a US-China trade deal are bringing out buyers.  However there are a lot China trade stories.  Some caution is appropriate after more than 1 year of stumbling by the bulls.  This will also be a big week for earnings.  Based on the companies which have already reported, earnings season is expected to continue being encouraging for investors.  At the same time, demand for safe haven gold is strong.

Dow Jones Industrials










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