Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Markets edge up on mixed earnings

Dow gained 45, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ went up 15.  The MLP index slid back to the 221s & the REIT index was even in the 416s (still in record territory).  Junk bond funds werre mixed & Treasuries inched higher in price.  Oil jumped 1+ to the 55s & gold gained 7 to 1494 (more on both below).

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Pres Trump says Turkey has informed the US it will make "permanent" a 5-day cease-fire in Syria.  In response, he says he's directing the lifting of economic sanctions on Turkey.  Claiming success at the US-brokered effort, Trump said, "this was an outcome created by us."  The cease-fire required Kurdish forces formerly allied with the US against the Islamic State group to move out of a roughly 20-mile zone on the Turkish border.  Trump says, "We've saved the lives of many, many Kurds."  Trump says nearly all US troops will be leaving Syria but some will remain to safeguard oil fields in Syria.  Russian forces have since begun joint patrols with Kurdish forces along the Turkish-Syrian border.

Trump says Turkey will make Syria cease-fire 'permanent,' lifts sanctions


Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer met again today with a House Dem working group to iron out differences on the USMCA trade deal.  The meeting comes as Rep Iowa Sen Chuck Grassley worried that the Dem-majority House "looks increasingly less likely to act this year" on the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which was agreed to more than a year ago.  One Dem congressional source said they are still on the path to yes.  The Dem working group staff & the Office of the Trade Representative staff "are constantly working back and forth to resolve outstanding differences,” the source said.  Ways & Means Chairman Richard Neal leads the working group.  Grassley said that if USMCA does not come up for a vote soon, "Democrats will have a price to pay next year" at the ballot box.  Dems saying they are on a path to yes, but giving no timeline seems like "stalling tactics," according to Grassley.  "Democrats are making the wrong political calculus," Grassley said on the Senate floor.  "President Trump has done his job. He's renegotiated a trade deal that nearly everyone besides a few congressional Democrats can agree is better than its predecessor we know as NAFTA. It's now up to the House of Representatives to do the job and bring this deal to a vote."  Neal said that he is planning to visit Ottawa soon to talk with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about USMCA.  Last week, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador sent a letter to Neal urging Dems in the House to ratify the deal "as soon as possible."  The US Chamber of Commerce, & the Trump administration, believes that if the agreement came up for a vote, it would be ratified in the House.

Lighthizer, House Democrats meet on USMCA as Grassley worries about 'stalling


Gold prices settled higher for the first time in 4 sessions, as a retreat in some assets considered risky, amid political uncertainties like Brexit, underpinned gains in the yellow metal.  Dec gold rose $8.20 (to settle at $1495) an ounce, after a slight decline yesterday.  Prices for the most-active contract remained below $1500, which is viewed as a key level by technical traders.  Prices haven't settled at that level since Oct 10.  For the week, gold prices are on track for a slight gain.  UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson scored a partial victory in his effort to achieve a divorce for the EU after a vote to fast-track the process before an Oct 31 deadline was rejected by parliament just ahead of a vote that agreed in principle to his divorce plan.  The outcome means that Johnson must go to the European Commission & get an extension, raising some doubts about whether an orderly Brexit will be achieved.  Against that backdrop of uncertainty & some retrenchment in global stocks after a batch of mixed earnings revived worries about global economic growth, bullion has found some traction higher.

Gold scores first gain in 4 sessions

Oil futures marked their highest finish in about a month, after a gov report showed an unexpected weekly decline in US crude supplies, the first in 6 weeks.  Dec WTI crude on its first full session as a front-month contract, rose $1.49 (2.7%) to settle at $55.97 a barrel.  That was the highest front-month contract settlement since Sep 26.  Global benchmark Brent crude for Dec, meanwhile, added $1.47 (2.5%) to $61.17 a barrel, the highest front-month contract finish since Sep 27.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude supplies fell for the first time in 6 weeks, down 1.7M barrels last week.  Separately, supplies of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 1M barrels for the week.  Crude supplies were forecast to increase 4.7M barrels.  The American Petroleum Institute yesterday reported a rise of 4.45M barrels.  The EIA data showed supply declines of 3.1M barrels for gasoline & 2.7M barrels for distillates.  The forecast called for supply decreases of 2M barrels for gasoline & 3M barrels for distillates.

Oil prices mark highest finish in a month as U.S. supplies post surprise weekly drop


Dow is up 63 this week (helped by a little buying into today's close) on mixed earnings.  New reports will likely be so-so at best.  Early in Nov retailers will report & they may not be encouraging.  Brexit is all but dead but the US-Mexico Canada trade deal may finally get a breath of life after languishing for a year.  That's due to dysfunctional DC.  The Turkey cease fire sounds good, if it holds.  Stocks may be flattish for the remainder of he week.

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